Ferro Carril Oeste vs Central Norte: match statistics
Ferro Carril Oeste vs Central Norte: form, goals and key statistics
Key match information
Ferro Carril Oeste played Central Norte in Prim B Nacional (Argentina). The match was played on 24 May 2026. Venue: Estadio Arquitecto Ricardo Etcheverry. Final score: 1:0.
Current form
Ferro Carril Oeste: 4-0-1, 2.40 points/match. Central Norte: 1-1-3, 0.80 points/match.
Goal statistics
Ferro Carril Oeste scores 1.08 and concedes 0.85 goals per match. Central Norte scores 0.62 and concedes 0.92. League average: 1.87 goals.
BTTS / Over / Under
BTTS: Ferro Carril Oeste 38%, Central Norte 31%. Over 2.5: Ferro Carril Oeste 23%, Central Norte 15%. League level: BTTS 38%, Over 2.5 30%.
xG, shots and style
Ferro Carril Oeste has higher xG: 1.46 vs 1.15. Ferro Carril Oeste: 12.7 shots per match, Central Norte: 9.5.
Match halves
Ferro Carril Oeste: half-time lead 8%, second-half goals 0.85. Central Norte: half-time lead 23%, second-half goals 0.31.
Goals by minute
Ferro Carril Oeste: 76-90+ (5 goals). Central Norte: 0-15 (2 goals). This is historical distribution, not a predicted goal minute.
League context
Prim B Nacional: 1.87 goals per match, BTTS 38%, Over 2.5 30%.
Head-to-head
No aligned head-to-head sample is available in the database.
Archived pre-match analysis
This analysis was prepared before kick-off. The conclusions use only information available before the match and do not include the final result or post-match statistics.
General match analysis
I back the home win (1) — Ferro Carril Oeste have won 4 of their last 5 matches and have averaged 2.4 points per game in that period, while Central Norte have just 1 win in their last 5 and 0.8 points per game. Hosts show a clear advantage in chance creation: 62% possession, on average 14.8 shots per match (3.2 on target) and xG 1.72 in home games versus 46% possession, 8.63 shots (2.63 on target) and xG 1.11 for visitors, translating into more offensive opportunities. Nevertheless Ferro exhibit poor finishing — just 0.6 goals per home game against xG 1.72 (difference -1.12) and a conversion rate around 4%, while the visitors convert at approximately 6%, so finishing could be an equalising factor. Defensively Central Norte concede statistically 0.88 goals per away game (less than Ferro’s 1.2), but their conceded xG of 1.39 and 7 goals conceded in the last 5 matches indicate recent defensive issues. Overall, greater control, higher shot volume and superior xG for the hosts, plus the form of 4 wins in 5, favour Ferro — implied probabilities: home 65%, draw 20%, away 15%.
View the statistical overviewBTTS - will both teams score?
I project BTTS - No for this match. Both teams score very rarely this season — Ferro averages 0.8 and Central 0.5 goals per game versus a league average of 1.89. Seasonal BTTS rates also support 'no': Ferro BTTS in 40% of matches, Central 25%, league BTTS 39%, indicating Goal/Goal is not the norm. Ferro posts higher xG (1.23 vs 1.11) and more shots on target (4.0 vs 2.63), but conversion is poor (0.8 goals from 1.23 xG), while Central converts even worse (0.5 goals from 1.11 xG). Short-term form introduces reversal risk: Central have 60% BTTS in their last 5 matches and concede 1.4 goals on average, and Ferro score 1.6 in their last 5, providing a moderate chance of both teams scoring. However, given the season-long low goal output and high clean sheet frequency (Ferro 40% clean sheets, Central 25%), I rate 65% for 'no' and 35% for 'yes'.
View BTTS statisticsOver/Under - goals analysis
I estimate 1.13 goals for Ferro Carril Oeste and 0.62 for Central Norte, total 1.75 goals; this value comes from averaged xG (1.23 for Ferro, 1.11 for Central Norte) adjusted for seasonal and recent finishing efficiency. Raw xG and xGA yield preliminary values ~1.31 for the home side and ~1.06 for the away (combining 1.23 with 1.39 and 1.11 with 1.01), but seasonal goal conversion is 0.65 for Ferro (0.8/1.23) and 0.45 for Central Norte (0.5/1.11), and the last 5 matches show improved form for the hosts (1.6 goals and xG 1.6). A Poisson model with lambda=1.75 translates to ~52% probability of Over 1.5, ~26% for Over 2.5 and ~10% for Over 3.5. Historically Over 2.5 is rare (20% of home matches, 13% of away matches), and Ferro averages 4.0 shots on target per game versus 2.63 for the visitors, which does not favor high-scoring outcomes. Based on this I recommend Under 2.5 (under ≈74%) as the strongest signal — the low expected total of 1.75 goals and the low season frequency of Over 2.5 support the under.
View Over/Under statisticsHT/FT - half-time and full-time scenario
The hosts led at the break in 0% of matches, were level at halftime in 60% and were trailing at the break in 40%, while Central Norte led at the break in 38% of games and averaged 0.38 goals in the first half. However, the second half is Ferro’s strength: in the last five matches the hosts scored an average of 1.2 goals after the break and won the second half in 80% of cases, whereas Central Norte did not win the second half in those five matches (0%). Additionally, the hosts’ xG is 1.23 versus the visitors’ 1.11, and average shots on target are 4.0 versus 2.63, which confirms the hosts’ superiority in creating chances after the break. As a result the most likely scenario is a draw at halftime and a home win at full-time (X/1) — I assign this scenario a 36% probability; alternative outcomes are draw/draw 18% and the visitors’ lead held to full-time 16%. I assess a direct home lead at halftime as 0% due to the absence of such HT cases in the data, and the remaining scenarios distribute as X/2 6%, 2/X 14% and 2/1 10%.
View first-half and second-half statisticsHalf-by-half
Match statistics
Pre-match profile— what do the season numbers say?
This is a team profile based on season data and form. Match-flow statistics are shown only after the fixture is played.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Attack and defence comparison for both teams in the current season.
Shooting quality
| Ferro Carril Oeste | Central Norte | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 27% | 33% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.12 | 0.12 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.31 | 0.20 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five matches and season record, overall and split by home and away matches.
Ferro Carril Oeste is 200% better for: last-5 form.
2.4 pts / match - Ferro Carril Oeste · 0.8 pts / match - Central Norte
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
Ferro Carril Oeste is 74% better for: goals scored per match.
1.08 goals / match - Ferro Carril Oeste · 0.62 goals / match - Central Norte
Ferro Carril Oeste is 8% better for: goals conceded per match.
0.85 goals / match - Ferro Carril Oeste · 0.92 goals / match - Central Norte
Ferro Carril Oeste scores in 69% of matches (9 of 13 matches), while Central Norte keeps a clean sheet in 31% (4 of 13 matches).
Central Norte scores in 46% of matches (6 of 13 matches), while Ferro Carril Oeste keeps a clean sheet in 38% (5 of 13 matches).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away matches in the current season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often both teams' matches have goals on both sides, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these matches cross the goal lines?
How often matches involving these teams clear goal thresholds, in the full match and in each half.
Full match - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under - Ferro Carril Oeste
Over / Under - Central Norte
1st half
2nd half
Match halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
Central Norte is 49% better for: first-half form (half-time points).
0.77 pts / match - Ferro Carril Oeste · 1.15 pts / match - Central Norte
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
Ferro Carril Oeste - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 8% of matches and wins 46%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Defence stays stable across the full match.
Central Norte - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 23% of matches and wins 23%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Concedes 0.2 more goals per match after half-time - defensive level drops in the second half.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 0.80 | 2.60 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.4 | 1.2 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| Average goals in match | 1.0 | 1.4 |
| 1 goal | 60% | 80% |
| 2 goals | 40% | 20% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 20% |
| Clean sheet | 40% | 80% |
| No goal | 60% | 20% |
| Goal difference | -1 | +5 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.40 | 0.60 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.6 | 0.4 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.6 | 0.8 |
| Average goals in match | 1.2 | 1.2 |
| 1 goal | 80% | 80% |
| 2 goals | 20% | 40% |
| 3 goals | 20% | 0% |
| Clean sheet | 60% | 20% |
| No goal | 40% | 60% |
| Goal difference | 0 | -2 |
* Colours in tables show event frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate, red is rare. It is frequency, not a team rating.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
Match phases in which both teams most often score and concede.
Most dangerous in minutes 76-90 (5 goals). Concedes most in 31-45 (5). Late-goal balance (76-90): +5 - wins late phases.
Most dangerous in minutes 0-15 (2 goals). Concedes most in 76-90 (4). Late-goal balance (76-90): -3 - late phases are a weakness.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends based on completed matches from the current season.
Match profile
Ferro Carril Oeste
Central Norte
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range are calculated from public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical match profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed matches from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (Prim B Nacional).
Teams vs league
| Ferro Carril Oeste | Liga | Central Norte | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals in match | • 1.92 | 1.87 | ▼ 1.54 |
| Both teams scored | • 38% | 38% | ▼ 31% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | ▼ 23% | 30% | ▼ 15% |
| Clean sheets | ▼ 38% | 40% | ▼ 31% |
| Goal before half-time | ▲ 62% | 57% | ▼ 54% |
| Goal after half-time | ▲ 77% | 71% | ▼ 54% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Lineups and player events
Verified starters, substitutes and recorded player events for this match.
Home team
Starting lineup
Away team
Starting lineup
Match timeline
Goals, cards and substitutions arranged in chronological order.
Referee and managers
Open their season profiles to compare match records, goals and disciplinary trends.
Referee context
See how often this referee shows cards, awards penalties and how their matches tend to finish.
FAQ
What was the result of Ferro Carril Oeste vs Central Norte?
The Prim B Nacional match finished Ferro Carril Oeste 1:0 Central Norte. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What do the goal statistics show before Ferro Carril Oeste vs Central Norte?
Ferro Carril Oeste score 1.08 goals per game on average and Central Norte 0.62. The Prim B Nacional average is 1.87 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 30% of games. Both teams score in 38% of Ferro Carril Oeste's matches and 31% of Central Norte's.
What form are Ferro Carril Oeste and Central Norte in?
Over the last 5 games Ferro Carril Oeste have a 4-0-1 record (2.40 points per game) and Central Norte 1-1-3 (0.80 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for Ferro Carril Oeste vs Central Norte?
The statistical background for Ferro Carril Oeste vs Central Norte — form, head-to-head, goals, BTTS and Over/Under — is on this page. The tip with full reasoning and a value assessment is in the NoFluffPicks app.