FH vs Keflavík: match statistics

FH have drawn as many as 50% of their home matches and won just 10%, which significantly increases the likelihood of a stalemate. Keflavík are higher in the table and have collected 1.8 points per game over the last five rounds compared with FH’s 1.2; however, they have lost 60% of their away matches and conceded an average of 2.3 goals. The hosts create more quality chances at home, averaging 1.85 xG compared with Keflavík’s 1.50 away from home, while also recording 5.3 shots on target per match against 4.1 for their opponents. Both teams have conceded 6 goals in their last five matches, but FH’s defence remains vulnerable, with an xGA of 1.97, so the visitors should find a way onto the scoresheet. The combination of FH’s home advantage and Keflavík’s stronger recent form points to a closely contested match with a high probability of a draw.

Seasonal BTTS indicators are high: FH has recorded BTTS in 60% of matches, while Keflavík has done so in as many as 80%, compared with a league average of 71%. The hosts score an average of 1.7 goals, whereas the visitors concede 2.3 goals per match and have kept a clean sheet in only 10% of their appearances, strongly supporting an FH goal. Keflavík has an average xG of 1.50, while FH has allowed opponents an xG of 2.34 over their last five matches, meaning the visitors should also create enough chances. The only cautionary signal is Keflavík’s 20% BTTS rate in their last five fixtures; however, they still averaged 1.4 goals during that period, while both teams conceded 1.2 goals per match. The long-term attacking data advantage and the visitors’ very weak defence indicate that BTTS - Yes / Goal-Goal is more likely.

FH average 1.7 goals per game, while Keflavík concede as many as 2.3 goals away from home, which clearly supports at least two goals for the hosts or an open game. The home side create chances worth an average of 1.80 xG, while the visitors’ defence allows opponents 1.84 xG per match. Keflavík also have an attacking argument: they score an average of 1.4 goals and generate 1.50 xG, while FH allow 1.55 xG. The Over 1.5 goals line has landed in 70% of FH matches and 90% of Keflavík’s games, making Over 1.5 the strongest pick despite the lower hit rate over the last five rounds.

FH have a clear advantage in the first-half data: they led at the break in 50% of their matches, scoring an average of 1.0 goals and conceding only 0.4, while Keflavík scored 0.4 goals before half-time and conceded 0.8. The hosts have also been more consistent throughout the season, averaging 1.8 points per match with a 50% win rate, whereas the visitors have lost 60% of their matches and concede an average of 2.3 goals. FH’s superiority in chance creation is also reflected in their average xG of 1.80 compared with 1.50, as well as 5.3 shots on target per match versus Keflavík’s 4.1. The visitors have performed better across their last five matches, winning 60% of them, but their season-long defensive weakness, particularly the 1.5 goals conceded after half-time, supports the HT/FT 1/1 scenario, with FH expected to maintain their lead through to full-time.