Fiorentina vs AC Milan: match statistics
AC Milan presents decidedly better form and table standing (2nd place vs Fiorentina's 18th). The visitors boast an impressive away record with 63% wins, 63% clean sheets, and only one loss all season. Fiorentina struggles significantly in home matches—only 22% wins, 56% losses, and a negative goal difference (-1). Milan demonstrates considerably better efficiency (14% shot conversion vs 9% for the hosts) and defensive solidity (0.63 goals conceded per match vs 1.56 for Fiorentina). Form over the last five matches also favors the visitors (1.6 PPG vs 1.4 PPG), and Milan's away streak (wwdddwww) indicates stability. All key statistical indicators clearly favor AC Milan to claim victory at the Stadio Artemio Franchi.
Fiorentina vs AC Milan: form, goals and key statistics
Key match information
Fiorentina played AC Milan in Serie A (Italy). The match was played on 11 January 2026. Final score: 1:1.
Current form
Fiorentina: 2-1-2, 1.40 points/match. AC Milan: 3-2-0, 2.20 points/match.
Goal statistics
Fiorentina scores 1.05 and concedes 1.58 goals per match. AC Milan scores 1.61 and concedes 0.78. League average: 2.35 goals.
BTTS / Over / Under
BTTS: Fiorentina 63%, AC Milan 50%. Over 2.5: Fiorentina 58%, AC Milan 50%. League level: BTTS 47%, Over 2.5 43%.
xG, shots and style
AC Milan has higher xG: 1.60 vs 1.39. Fiorentina: 13.5 shots per match, AC Milan: 14.3.
Match halves
Fiorentina: half-time lead 11%, second-half goals 0.68. AC Milan: half-time lead 33%, second-half goals 0.94.
Goals by minute
Fiorentina: 46-60 (5 goals). AC Milan: 46-60 (8 goals). This is historical distribution, not a predicted goal minute.
League context
Serie A: 2.35 goals per match, BTTS 47%, Over 2.5 43%.
Head-to-head
Before this fixture, 1 previous H2H matches were available: 0-0-1. Average goals 3.00, BTTS 100%.
Archived pre-match analysis
This analysis was prepared before kick-off. The conclusions use only information available before the match and do not include the final result or post-match statistics.
General match analysis
AC Milan presents decidedly better form and table standing (2nd place vs Fiorentina's 18th). The visitors boast an impressive away record with 63% wins, 63% clean sheets, and only one loss all season. Fiorentina struggles significantly in home matches—only 22% wins, 56% losses, and a negative goal difference (-1). Milan demonstrates considerably better efficiency (14% shot conversion vs 9% for the hosts) and defensive solidity (0.63 goals conceded per match vs 1.56 for Fiorentina). Form over the last five matches also favors the visitors (1.6 PPG vs 1.4 PPG), and Milan's away streak (wwdddwww) indicates stability. All key statistical indicators clearly favor AC Milan to claim victory at the Stadio Artemio Franchi.
View the statistical overviewHalf-by-half
Match statistics
Pre-match profile— what do the season numbers say?
This is a team profile based on season data and form. Match-flow statistics are shown only after the fixture is played.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Attack and defence comparison for both teams in the current season.
Shooting quality
| Fiorentina | AC Milan | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 25% | 34% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.10 | 0.11 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.31 | 0.33 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five matches and season record, overall and split by home and away matches.
AC Milan is 57% better for: last-5 form.
1.4 pts / match - Fiorentina · 2.2 pts / match - AC Milan
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
AC Milan is 53% better for: goals scored per match.
1.05 goals / match - Fiorentina · 1.61 goals / match - AC Milan
AC Milan is 103% better for: goals conceded per match.
1.58 goals / match - Fiorentina · 0.78 goals / match - AC Milan
Fiorentina scores in 68% of matches (13 of 19 matches), while AC Milan keeps a clean sheet in 50% (9 of 18 matches).
AC Milan scores in 94% of matches (17 of 18 matches), while Fiorentina keeps a clean sheet in 16% (3 of 19 matches).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away matches in the current season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often both teams' matches have goals on both sides, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these matches cross the goal lines?
How often matches involving these teams clear goal thresholds, in the full match and in each half.
Full match - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under - Fiorentina
Over / Under - AC Milan
1st half
2nd half
Match halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
AC Milan is 97% better for: first-half form (half-time points).
0.79 pts / match - Fiorentina · 1.56 pts / match - AC Milan
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
Fiorentina - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 11% of matches and wins 11%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Concedes 0.3 more goals per match after half-time - defensive level drops in the second half.
AC Milan - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 33% of matches and wins 61%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Defence stays stable across the full match.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.20 | 1.60 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.6 | 1.2 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.2 | 1.0 |
| Average goals in match | 0.8 | 2.2 |
| 1 goal | 40% | 100% |
| 2 goals | 20% | 60% |
| 3 goals | 20% | 40% |
| Clean sheet | 80% | 20% |
| No goal | 80% | 20% |
| Goal difference | +2 | +1 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.00 | 2.60 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.6 | 1.4 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| Average goals in match | 1.4 | 1.6 |
| 1 goal | 80% | 100% |
| 2 goals | 40% | 60% |
| 3 goals | 20% | 0% |
| Clean sheet | 40% | 80% |
| No goal | 40% | 0% |
| Goal difference | -1 | +6 |
* Colours in tables show event frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate, red is rare. It is frequency, not a team rating.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
Match phases in which both teams most often score and concede.
Most dangerous in minutes 46-60 (5 goals). Concedes most in 46-60 (6). Late-goal balance (76-90): -2 - late phases are a weakness.
Most dangerous in minutes 46-60 (8 goals). Concedes most in 16-30 (3). Late-goal balance (76-90): +3 - wins late phases.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends based on completed matches from the current season.
Match profile
Fiorentina
AC Milan
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range are calculated from public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical match profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed matches from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (Serie A).
Teams vs league
| Fiorentina | Liga | AC Milan | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals in match | ▲ 2.63 | 2.35 | • 2.39 |
| Both teams scored | ▲ 63% | 47% | ▲ 50% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | ▲ 58% | 43% | ▲ 50% |
| Clean sheets | ▼ 16% | 31% | ▲ 50% |
| Goal before half-time | ▼ 58% | 64% | ▼ 61% |
| Goal after half-time | ▲ 79% | 76% | ▲ 83% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Lineups and player events
Verified starters, substitutes and recorded player events for this match.
Home team
Starting lineup
Away team
Starting lineup
Substitutes
Match timeline
Goals, cards and substitutions arranged in chronological order.
Referee and managers
Open their season profiles to compare match records, goals and disciplinary trends.
Referee context
See how often this referee shows cards, awards penalties and how their matches tend to finish.
Head-to-head
Previous meeting: Fiorentina 0 - 0 - 1 AC Milan. Average goals 3.00, both teams scored in 100% matches.
FAQ
What was the result of Fiorentina vs AC Milan?
The Serie A match finished Fiorentina 1:1 AC Milan. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What do the goal statistics show before Fiorentina vs AC Milan?
Fiorentina score 1.05 goals per game on average and AC Milan 1.61. The Serie A average is 2.35 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 43% of games. Both teams score in 63% of Fiorentina's matches and 50% of AC Milan's.
What form are Fiorentina and AC Milan in?
Over the last 5 games Fiorentina have a 2-1-2 record (1.40 points per game) and AC Milan 3-2-0 (2.20 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for Fiorentina vs AC Milan?
This page shows the full statistical context — form, head-to-head, goals, BTTS and Over/Under. The tip, value assessment and full reasoning are in the NoFluffPicks app.