Fiorentina vs Frosinone: match statistics

Fiorentina have a slightly better record over their last five matches, collecting 8 points from 2 wins and 2 draws, while Frosinone have secured 5 points. Both teams have scored 8 goals during this period, but the hosts have been more effective at converting their attacking play into positive results. Fiorentina’s defence remains a concern, however, having conceded 8 goals in five matches, one more than Frosinone. The visitors have lost 2 of their last 5 matches, compared with just one defeat for Fiorentina, which, combined with home advantage, gives the hosts a moderate edge. The lack of complete home and away statistics increases the risk of a draw, but a narrow Fiorentina victory is the most likely outcome.

Recent form clearly supports goals from both teams: Fiorentina recorded BTTS in 60% of their last 5 matches, while Frosinone did so in as many as 80%. During this period, both teams averaged 1.6 goals scored per match, while Fiorentina conceded 1.6 and Frosinone 1.4 goals per game. The visitors’ attacking potential also looks solid in terms of xG, with their average of 1.38 exceeding Fiorentina’s 0.94, while the hosts allowed opponents an xG of 1.32. Full-season data is very limited and indicates only 40% BTTS in the league, but the current run of both sides provides a stronger signal for at least one goal from each team.

In their last five matches, Fiorentina scored and conceded 1.6 goals per game, while Frosinone scored 1.6 and conceded 1.4. Both teams had 60% of their matches produce at least three goals during this period, but reaching the four-goal threshold is clearly more difficult. The quality of the chances created points to a more moderate scenario: Fiorentina’s average xG is 0.94, compared with 1.38 for Frosinone, supporting a forecast of around 2.50 goals. This is close to the league average of 2.4 goals per match and gives the Under 3.5 goals market an edge. Even if both teams score, a 1:1, 2:1 or 1:2 result remains more likely than a game with at least four goals.

Fiorentina show the stronger first-half signal: in their last five matches, they led at the break in 60% of games, while Frosinone achieved this in only 25%. The hosts averaged 1.0 goals scored and 0.6 conceded before half-time, whereas their opponents also scored 1.0 on average but went into the break level in as many as 50% of cases. Across their last five matches, Fiorentina won 40% and lost only 20%, while Frosinone recorded a 20% win rate and a 40% loss rate. Both teams averaged 1.6 goals per match during this period, but Fiorentina collected points more consistently, averaging 1.6 points per game compared with Frosinone’s 1.0. The most likely scenario is therefore that the hosts will capitalise on their stronger start, take the lead before half-time and hold on to it until the final whistle: 1/1.