Firpo vs Fuerte San Francisco: match statistics

Firpo holds a slight edge in the last 5 matches: scored 5 and conceded 5 (avg. 1.0 scored and 1.0 conceded per match), while Fuerte San Francisco scored 4 and conceded 6 (avg. 0.8 scored and 1.2 conceded per match). Points per game over the last 5 are 1.2 for Firpo vs. 0.8 for Fuerte, with Firpo’s record 1-3-1 and the visitors 1-1-3. Goal difference in this period is 0 for the home side versus -2 for the away side, indicating better defensive stability for Firpo. Lack of complete season data means the forecast is based on the last 5 matches, where the hosts show greater consistency of results. Therefore I predict a home win and assess the probabilities as 60% for Firpo, 25% for a draw and 15% for Fuerte.

Firpo has a BTTS rate of 80% in the last 5 matches, while Fuerte only 40%; the average of these values is 60%, and the league BTTS rate is 67%, which leans toward Both Teams To Score. xG stats show Firpo produces 1.47 xG and concedes 1.31 xG on average, while Fuerte has an attacking xG of 1.62 and conceded xG of 1.63 — both sides create ~1.5 xG and defenses allow over 1.3 xG. In the last 5 matches Firpo scored 5 and conceded 5 goals (avg 1.0 and 1.0), and Fuerte scored 4 and conceded 6 (avg 0.8 and 1.2), which confirms a propensity for mutual scoring. Additionally, the league average goals is 3.33, increasing the probability of goals; seasonal data is empty (0.0), so I place greater weight on form from the last 5 matches and league statistics. Based on this, I forecast BTTS - Yes with a probability of 70% versus 30% for No, because the combination of Firpo’s 80% BTTS, the league 67% and similar xG (1.47/1.62) strongly supports both teams scoring, despite Fuerte’s lower 40% BTTS.

In the last 5 matches Firpo averages 1.0 goals scored and 1.0 conceded, while Fuerte San Francisco averages 0.8 scored and 1.2 conceded, giving a combined average of 1.8 goals per game between them. At the same time recent xG is 1.47 for Firpo and 1.62 for Fuerte (total 3.09 xG), meaning both teams generate significantly more chances than the goals tally (1.8) suggests, indicating low finishing efficiency. The league averages 3.33 goals per match with 67% of games Over 2.5, but both sides have recorded only 20% Over 2.5 in their last 5, which limits the probability of a high-scoring affair. Based on this I estimate expected goals around 2.10 (Firpo 1.20 vs Fuerte 0.90), therefore the most credible signal is Over 1.5 (estimated 85%), while Over 2.5 I assess lower (40%) due to poor conversion and the historical 20% Over 2.5. Over 3.5 looks unlikely (12%) given the actual 1.8 goals average in the last 5 meetings of both teams.

Firpo led at the break in 40% of their last 5 matches, averaging 0.6 goals by half-time while conceding only 0.2 (last 5). Fuerte San Francisco also averages 0.6 goals by half-time but concedes 0.4 on average, and has been both leading and trailing at the break in 40% of cases (last 5), indicating instability in their pre-break performance. Over the full match Firpo averages 1.0 goals per game and 1.2 points per game in the last 5, whereas Fuerte averages 0.8 goals and 0.8 points, and concedes 1.2 goals per match on average, which gives the home side an advantage after the break. Since Firpo did not trail at half-time in these 5 matches (0%) and has better points and defensive metrics, the most likely scenario is the home side leading at the break and maintaining the win to full-time. Therefore I select 1/1 as the strongest signal and assign it roughly 30% probability, with alternatives X/X (18%) and X/1 (14%).