FK Minyor Pernik vs CSKA Sofia II: match statistics

CSKA Sofia II are the favorites for this match: they sit 5th in the table with 14 wins this season, while FK Minyor Pernik are 14th with 7 wins. In their last 5 matches the visitors have scored 11 goals and averaged 2.0 points per game (3W, 1D, 1L), while the hosts have scored 6 goals and average 0.6 points per game (1W, 4L). Minyor have a slightly higher home xG (1.48 vs 1.36 for the visitors) but convert worse — the hosts average 1.00 goal at home with a 9% conversion rate and fail to score in 50% of home games, whereas CSKA have a 13% conversion rate and fail to score in only 21% of away matches. Defensively Minyor concede 1.14 goals per home game compared to 1.64 conceded by CSKA away, however in the last 5 matches the visitors have conceded only 4 goals (0.8 per game) versus Minyor’s 9 conceded (1.8 per game), which indicates defensive form advantage for CSKA. Considering the visitors’ 52 goals scored this season vs the hosts’ 30, and the clearly better efficiency and form (2.0 vs 0.6 points per game), I predict an away win.

xG and match stats analysis gives a moderate edge to BTTS: home attack xG is 1.83 while average xG conceded by CSKA II is 1.45, yielding estimated home expected goals ≈1.64; away xG is 1.36 vs xG conceded to hosts 1.02 giving away ≈1.19. From a simple Poisson model the probability the hosts score at least once is ~80.5% (from expected 1.64), and the visitors score at least once ~69.6% (from expected 1.19), combining to ~56% for BTTS. There are however strong counter-signals: hosts concede only 0.5 goals per game season-to-date and have 50% clean sheets, while the league overall has 65% clean sheets, which reduces the expectation for both teams to score. At the same time the last 5 matches show form favoring goals for both sides — visitors scored 11 in 5 (2.2 avg), and hosts conceded 9 in 5 (1.8 avg), and season BTTS rate is 64% for visitors vs 31% for hosts. Considering xG 1.64 vs 1.19, the visitors’ good attacking form and short-term vulnerability of the hosts, I tip BTTS = Yes (56% vs 44%).

Calculated xG is 1.64 for Minyor (home xG 1.83, xG conceded 1.45) and 1.19 for CSKA II (1.36 and 1.02), giving an expected total of 2.83 goals. Seasonally Minyor score 2.0 at home and concede 0.5 with 50% clean sheets, while CSKA II away score 1.43 and concede 1.64 with only 21% clean sheets; however in the last 5 matches Minyor average 1.2 scored and 1.8 conceded, and CSKA 2.2 scored and 0.8 conceded. Minyor register 7.69 shots on target per game with a 15% conversion, CSKA 5.57 SoT with 13% conversion, confirming both teams’ real goal potential. Percentage of matches over 1.5 goals is 63% for Minyor and 86% for CSKA II, while the league average goals is 2.49, so Over 1.5 goals looks like the strongest signal. Over 2.5 has a moderate probability (seasonal 31% for Minyor and 64% for CSKA and recent form increases the likelihood), whereas Over 3.5 is unlikely (seasonal 25%/29% and expected total 2.83), therefore I prefer Under 3.5.

Statistical analysis points to a scenario of the home side leading at the break and winning by full-time (1/1). FK Minyor Pernik led at half-time in 7 of 16 matches (44%) and won 63% of their games this season, whereas CSKA Sofia II has a 29% win rate and an average xG of 1.36 versus 1.83 for the hosts, which favors Minyor. The hosts scored as many as 10 goals in minutes 76–90 compared to 1 for the visitors, and they concede only 0.13 goals on average in second halves, so maintaining a lead after the break is realistic. Although the visitors have won 60% of their last 5 matches, their season averages (1.43 goals and 1.14 points per game) are clearly lower than the hosts’ (2.0 goals and 2.06 points), hence 1/1 appears to be the strongest signal.