Flamengo vs Botafogo: match statistics

Flamengo sit 2nd, while Botafogo are only 11th, and the gap is also reflected in their current form: the hosts have collected 10 points from their last five matches, compared with just 4 for the visitors. At home, Flamengo win 60% of their matches, score an average of 1.9 goals and create chances worth 1.92 xG, while conceding just 0.8 goals per game. Away from home, Botafogo lose as many as 50% of their matches, concede an average of 1.67 goals, and their defence allows opponents 1.77 xG. Flamengo’s advantage is also evident in their control of the game and chance creation: they average 17.6 shots and 57% possession, compared with Botafogo’s 11.75 shots and 48% possession. The visitors have scored just 5 goals and conceded 11 in their last five appearances, making a home win the most likely outcome.

Both teams have a very high seasonal percentage of matches featuring goals from both sides: Flamengo 73% and Botafogo 75%, well above the league average of 57%. Flamengo score an average of 1.82 goals at home, while Botafogo concede 1.67 away from home, strongly supporting the home side to find the net. The visitors score an average of 1.42 goals, while Flamengo concede 1.55 on average, with the home side keeping a clean sheet in just 18% of matches. In Flamengo’s last five matches, BTTS landed in 80% of cases, while Botafogo, despite scoring only 1.0 goal per match, created chances worth 1.97 xG. Additionally, Botafogo conceded 11 goals in five matches during this period, making the most likely scenario one in which Flamengo exploit the opponent’s defensive gaps and the visitors respond with at least one goal. Therefore, BTTS - Yes is the preferred selection.

Flamengo has a very strong attacking profile: it scores an average of 1.82 goals, generates 1.81 xG, and records 5.73 shots on target per match. Botafogo concedes an average of 1.67 goals, while its opponents generate 1.77 xG against them, clearly strengthening the prospect of at least two goals scored by both teams combined. In Flamengo’s last five matches, the team scored 11 goals, while Botafogo conceded 11 goals during the same period—2.2 per match. The 1.5 line was surpassed in 91% of Flamengo’s matches and 75% of Botafogo’s, while both teams also regularly feature in games with a goal scored by each side, in 73% and 75% of cases respectively. The strongest selection is Over 1.5 goals, as even with a conservative projection of 3.17 goals, it offers a significantly greater margin of safety than higher lines.

Flamengo have clearly superior current form: over their last five matches, they have averaged 2.2 goals scored, conceded 1.0, and won 60% of their games, while Botafogo have averaged 1.0 goal scored, conceded 2.2, and lost 60% of their matches. The strongest signal concerns the first half: the hosts were leading at the break in four of their last five matches and did not trail in any of them, whereas the visitors were behind at half-time in three of their last five games, conceding an average of 1.4 goals before the interval. Flamengo also create more chances over the course of the season, as reflected by their xG of 1.81 compared with Botafogo’s 1.30, while the hosts’ average of 16.82 shots is higher than the opponents’ 11.75. After the break, Flamengo remain offensively effective, scoring an average of 1.18 goals, while Botafogo’s defence allows an average of 1.67 goals per match. A scenario in which Flamengo lead at half-time and go on to win is therefore the most consistent with both their current form and their superior chance-creation quality.