Fleury 91 vs Amiens SC: match statistics

Fleury 91 sit 8th in the table, but their current form is clearly superior: they have won 2 of their last 5 matches and scored 7 goals during that run. Amiens SC are league leaders, but they have failed to win any of their last five games, recording 1 draw and 4 defeats. The visitors have scored just 4 goals in that period while conceding as many as 14, an average of 2.8 goals per match. Fleury have also looked vulnerable defensively, allowing 9 goals in five appearances, but their attacking output is 3 goals better than their opponents'. With home advantage and a significantly more favorable recent trend, the hosts should have a better chance of ending their winless run than Amiens, who are in deep crisis.

The signal for both teams to score is primarily driven by Amiens’ weak defensive record, having conceded an average of 2.8 goals over their last 5 matches and allowed opponents an average xG of 1.86. Fleury scored 1.4 goals per game during this period, giving them very favorable conditions to exploit the hosts’ defensive problems. Amiens averaged only 0.8 goals per match, although their average xG stood at 1.54, while Fleury conceded 1.8 goals per game with an xG against of 1.62. Caution is warranted by the fact that BTTS - Yes occurred in just 20% of Fleury’s last five appearances, compared with 60% for Amiens. Despite this discrepancy, the combination of high goals-conceded figures on both sides gives the BTTS - Yes scenario a slight but clear edge.

Seasonal data is unavailable, so the assessment is based on the last five matches, in which both teams recorded at least three goals in 60% of their games. During this period, Amiens conceded as many as 2.8 goals per match on average, while Fleury scored 1.4 goals, which clearly supports the hosts’ attacking output. Fleury are also vulnerable defensively, averaging 1.8 goals conceded, while Amiens’ xG of 1.54 suggests the potential to score despite averaging only 0.8 goals. The combined record from the last five matches is 11 goals scored and 23 conceded by both teams, equating to 3.4 goals per match. The strongest signal is Over 1.5 goals, as the projected total of 2.70 goals provides a substantial safety margin even if finishing efficiency is below expectations.

Fleury 91 are in clearly better current form: they have won twice in their last five matches and scored an average of 1.4 goals, while Amiens have failed to win any of their matches, scoring 0.8 goals and conceding as many as 2.8 per game. The hosts led at the break in 40% of their recent outings, whereas Amiens were trailing at half-time in as many as 75% of their matches; in addition, the visitors scored just 0.5 goals before the interval while conceding 1.25. After the break, the trend still favours Fleury, who averaged 1.4 points in second halves, while Amiens failed to pick up a single point in them and conceded an average of 2.0 goals. The most logical HT/FT outcome is therefore for the hosts to lead at half-time and maintain their advantage until the final whistle: 1/1.