Fleury 91 vs Aubagne: match statistics

Fleury 91 have a clearly superior record this season: 2 wins, 3 draws and 2 defeats, while Aubagne have won just 1 of their 7 matches and lost as many as 5. The hosts average 1.75 goals per home game, whereas the visitors are yet to score away from home and have failed to find the net in 100% of such appearances. Fleury’s advantage is also evident in the quality of chances created: the hosts’ average xG is 1.22, while Aubagne generate only 0.99 xG away from home and allow opponents 1.81 xG. The home side also record 5.25 shots on target per home match, compared with Aubagne’s 3.33 away from home. A draw remains a realistic outcome, as Fleury have drawn 50% of their home matches, but the visitors’ extremely poor finishing strongly favours a home win.

The strongest signal for BTTS - No comes from Aubagne, who average no goals scored in away matches, have failed to convert any scoring chances, and have not scored in 100% of such fixtures. BTTS occurred in only 25% of Fleury 91 matches and 0% of Aubagne matches, compared with the league average of 38%. Aubagne keep a clean sheet in 33% of away games and concede just 0.67 goals per match, further limiting the hosts’ chances of scoring. Fleury 91 have been more effective recently, averaging 2.0 goals over their last five matches, but Aubagne have scored just 0.6 goals over the same period. Although Aubagne’s xG from their last five matches stands at 1.21, their poor real-world finishing and very low goal tally support a scenario in which at least one team fails to score.

The strongest signal points to Under 3.5 goals, as both teams have recorded a maximum of three goals in 100% of their league matches so far. Aubagne have yet to score away from home, and 100% of those matches have finished Under 2.5 goals, clearly limiting the potential for a high-scoring game. Fleury average only 0.75 goals at home, although the visitors’ weak defense, conceding an average of 1.81 xG, raises the hosts’ projection to around 1.45 goals. Fleury’s last five appearances have been more open, averaging 3.4 goals per match with 60% finishing Over 2.5, but Aubagne have managed just 1.4 total goals per game during this period, with only 20% of matches going Over that line. The combined projection of 2.25 goals indicates a realistic chance of two or three goals, but the visitors’ low attacking output makes three or more goals unlikely.

The strongest scenario is a half-time draw followed by a Fleury 91 win at full time, as Aubagne drew the first half in 2 of their 3 away matches, or 67% of such fixtures, while also failing to score a single goal before the break. In their home first halves, Fleury average 0.5 goals scored and the same number conceded, which also points to an evenly matched, rather cautious start. After the interval, the hosts’ advantage has increased over their last five matches: they average 1.4 goals in the second half, compared with just 0.2 for Aubagne. The visitors have failed to score in any away match across the entire available part of the season, while Fleury have the stronger attacking potential based on xG, at 1.19 compared with 0.99. The main risk is the hosts’ defensive form, as they have conceded an average of 1.4 goals in their last five appearances; however, Aubagne’s poor finishing supports a shift in the result towards Fleury after half-time.