Fleury 91 vs Dijon: match statistics

Dijon sit 1st with a record of 14 wins, 10 draws and only 1 loss, while Fleury 91 are 5th with an 11-8-6 record. Dijon have scored 42 goals this season versus Fleury’s 33, and away they concede only 0.46 goals per game on average with 54% of matches keeping a clean sheet; Fleury at home concede 1.00 goal on average and have 50% clean sheets. Fleury at home record 62% possession, average 5 shots on target and xG 1.49 with a conversion rate around 13% (1.33 goals/game), whereas Dijon away average 3.77 shots on target, xG 1.31 and an 11% conversion (1.23 goals/game). In the last five matches Dijon average 2.6 points and have scored 9 while conceding 4, and Fleury average 2.0 points with 8 scored and 7 conceded, indicating better form and defensive stability for the visitors. Given Dijon’s advantage in goal tally (42-17 vs 33-23), zero away losses and lower average goals conceded (0.46 vs 1.00), I predict an away win.

I back BTTS - Yes because Fleury at home averages 2.17 goals scored per match with xG 1.70 and 5.25 shots on target, indicating significant offensive potential. Dijon away scores 1.23 goals on average, and over the last 5 matches they average 1.8 goals scored and 0.8 conceded, with BTTS occurring in 80% of those five games, confirming both teams’ current form. Season-long metrics are mixed (Fleury BTTS 58% vs Dijon BTTS 46%), but Dijon also has a high clean sheet rate of 54%, which is a counterargument; nevertheless recent form supports goals from both sides. Additionally Fleury’s finishing efficiency of 15% versus Dijon’s 11% and an xG against Dijon of 1.12 suggest the hosts have a real advantage in chance creation while Dijon still scores often enough to expect an exchange of goals; thus an estimated ~70% for Yes and 30% for No.

Based on xG: Fleury’s attack has xG 1.70 while Dijon’s defense concedes 1.12 xG, implying a 1.41 goal projection for Fleury; Dijon’s attack 1.31 vs Fleury’s defense 0.78 implies 1.05 goals for Dijon — total expected goals = 2.46. A Poisson model with mean 2.46 indicates roughly a 70% chance of Over 1.5 goals (probability total goals ≤1 ≈ 30%), about 44% for Over 2.5 goals (P≤2 ≈ 56%) and about 23% for Over 3.5 (P≤3 ≈ 77%). Seasonal metrics support this direction: Fleury has 75% of matches Over 1.5, Dijon 54%; for the 2.5 line the figures are 58% and 31%, respectively, giving a moderate seasonal signal for Over 2.5. Fleury scores on average 2.17 goals per match, Dijon 1.23, and home matches end with both teams scoring in 58% of cases versus 46% for away matches, which increases the likelihood of additional goals. As a result the strongest and most consistent signal from the data is Over 1.5 (recommend the Over side at 1.5) with an estimated probability of about 70%.

The most likely scenario is a draw at half-time and a home win at full-time (X/1). Fleury scores an average of 1.42 goals after the break, while Dijon only 0.46, and the hosts win the second half in 50% of matches versus 23% for the visitors, which strongly supports a turnaround after half-time. First-half data are balanced: the average goals at the break are 1.08 for Fleury and 0.92 for Dijon, and the average goals scored by half-time are 0.75 versus 0.77, which increases the chance of a draw after 45 minutes. Dijon has not been losing at the break this season (0% of matches with a first-half deficit), so a Fleury lead at the break is less likely than a draw; nevertheless, Fleury’s superior post-break scoring (1.42 vs. 0.46) gives them the best chances of the full-time victory.