Fleury 91 vs Rouen: match statistics

Fleury holds a clear advantage in attack and game control: at home they average 1.67 goals, 11.21 shots (5 on target) and 59% possession, while Rouen away posts 1.27 goals, 10.33 shots (3.53 on target) and 48% possession. The superiority in quality of chances is also visible in xG – Fleury generates 1.47 xG at home on average versus 1.28 xG for Rouen – and in shot conversion 16% vs 12%, translating into 10 goals for Fleury in the last 5 matches compared to 5 for the visitors. Form favors the hosts: Fleury averages 2 points per match in the last 5 (run dwwwl), while Rouen has 1 point per match in the last 5 (run ldwdl), with Rouen conceding 6 goals in those five matches versus 4 conceded by Fleury. Defensively the hosts are slightly more solid at home – 0.87 goals conceded per match and 53% clean sheets versus 0.93 and 33% for Rouen – although the hosts had 33% of home matches without scoring compared to 20% of away matches without a goal for the visitors, indicating some offensive instability. Considering the advantage in possession, number and quality of chances (xG and higher conversion) and better form, I forecast a Fleury win, with a meaningful probability of a draw due to Rouen’s tendency to draw on the road (53%).

Both teams show high season BTTS rates: Fleury 56% and Rouen 67%, versus the league average 52%, which initially favors the "both teams to score" scenario. Support comes from xG figures: Fleury generates on average xG 1.50 versus average xG conceded to Rouen 1.29, while Rouen has xG 1.28 versus xG conceded to Fleury 1.00 — both comparisons (1.50>1.29 and 1.28>1.00) indicate realistic chances of goals from both sides. Additionally, Rouen’s away BTTS is 67% and their BTTS in the last 5 matches is 60%, and chance creation is confirmed by average shots on target 4.38 (Fleury) and 3.53 (Rouen) with conversion rates 11% and 12%. The counterweight is Fleury’s solid defense: they concede only 0.88 goals seasonally, have 44% clean sheets and in the last 5 matches BTTS occurred in only 20% of games with an average goals conceded 0.8, which reduces the clarity of the "yes" signal. In summary, considering the offensive signals from xG and Rouen’s 67% BTTS versus the risk of a Fleury clean sheet, I assess BTTS probability at 65% (yes) and 35% (no).

Based on xG I estimated approximately 1.40 xG for Fleury (attacking xG 1.50 vs Rouen’s defensive xG 1.29) and 1.14 xG for Rouen (attacking xG 1.28 vs Fleury’s defensive xG 1.00), giving a combined ~2.54 expected goals. Seasonally 63% of Fleury’s matches and 73% of Rouen’s matches finished over 1.5 goals; a Poisson model with lambda=2.54 yields roughly a 72% probability of at least two goals, which strongly supports Over 1.5. Additionally Fleury averages 4.38 shots on target, Rouen 3.53, with conversion rates of 11% and 12%; combined with the frequent occurrences of both teams scoring (56% Fleury, 67% Rouen), this increases the likelihood of multiple goals. The 2.5 line is less convincing — seasonally 50% (Fleury) and 40% (Rouen), and our calculations give ~47% chance of 3+ goals; Over 3.5 is unlikely (~25%). Therefore I recommend playing Over 1.5 as the strongest signal, based on a 72% probability, xG 2.54 and supporting shots and BTTS statistics.

Statistics indicate that the most common Half-Time outcome will be a draw: Fleury draw at the break in 50% of matches and Rouen in 60%, while the home side lead at the break in 38% of fixtures. After the break Fleury have a clear offensive edge — they average 1.38 goals per game versus Rouen’s 1.27, possess higher xG (1.50 vs 1.28) and register more shots (12.75 vs 10.33), which supports scoring in the second half. The hosts concede 0.38 goals on average before the break compared to 0.53 for the visitors, and in the last five matches Fleury have 60% wins and led at HT in 40% of games, whereas Rouen have 20% wins and 20% HT leads. As a result, the Half-Time draw / Full-Time home win combination (X/1) I regard as the strongest signal and estimate its probability at about 33%. By comparison I assign 1/1 22% and X/X 17%, because the frequency of draws at Half-Time often dominates alongside Fleury’s advantage in xG and offensive activity.