Flota Świnoujście vs Cartusia Kartuzy: match statistics

I predict a home win for Flota Świnoujście: the hosts have scored 48 goals this season versus Cartusia Kartuzy’s 38, and at home they average 1.38 goals and 5.14 shots on target per match, while the visitors average 1.06 goals and 3.9 shots on target away. Cartusia struggle significantly on the road — they concede 1.94 goals per away match on average, have an away goal difference of -14 and lose 75% of away fixtures; in their last 5 matches they have scored just 1 goal and recorded no wins. Flota creates slightly better-quality chances (home xG 1.37 vs away xG 1.21) and have a higher shot conversion rate (16% vs 12%), with a share of matches without scoring of only 25% compared to Cartusia’s 44%. Additionally, Flota average 1.4 points in the last 5 matches versus Cartusia’s 0.2, so defensive metrics and attacking efficiency favor the home side.

I back No BTTS. Cartusia has scored only 1 goal in the last 5 matches (0.2 per match) and has 20% BTTS in that period, while Flota scored 7 goals (1.4 per match) and has 60% BTTS in recent matches. Seasonally Flota at home has BTTS 50% vs Cartusia away 38%, but recent form is decisive — Cartusia’s last 5 matches show xG ~1.15 with just 0.2 goals, meaning they create chances but convert poorly. Flota at home averages 1.31 goals scored, xG 1.43 and 4.88 shots on target, while Cartusia concedes 1.94 goals on the road, so the hosts are likely to score and the visitors may remain blank. Based on this I assign 65% to 'No' and 35% to 'Yes'.

The xG-based projection yields a total expected goals figure of approximately 2.99: Flota expected goals ≈1.56 (attack xG 1.43 vs opponent defense xG 1.69), Cartusia ≈1.43 (attack xG 1.21 vs home defense xG 1.65). A Poisson model with λ=2.99 indicates about an 80% probability of at least 2 goals (Over 1.5) and about 57% for at least 3 goals (Over 2.5), therefore Over 1.5 is the strongest signal. Seasonal metrics support this trend: Over 1.5 occurred for Flota in 56% of matches and for Cartusia in 75%, with the league average goals at 2.94. Additionally, Cartusia concedes on average 1.94 goals per game, Flota averages 4.88 shots on target and has xG 1.43; although Cartusia scored only 1 goal in the last 5 matches (0.2 on average), their last5 xG = 1.15 and a shot conversion rate of 12% suggest the visitors can still score. Based on this, I recommend backing Over 1.5 as the best line; Over 2.5 has moderate support (~57%), while Over 3.5 is less likely (~35%).

I expect a draw at half-time because Flota have been level at the break in 64% of their matches and average 0.5 goals in the first half while conceding only 0.36, which indicates a low number of goals before the break. After the interval the advantage should shift to the home side: Flota’s average points in second halves is 1.5, rising to 2.0 in the last five matches, and they have won second halves in 60% of cases. Cartusia have poor away form and low points efficiency — averaging 0.75 points per away match with 0% wins in their last five — and concede 1.94 goals per game on average, increasing the risk of conceding after the break. As a result, the most likely scenario according to the data is a draw at half-time and a home victory after 90 minutes (X/1).