Flota Świnoujście vs Gedania Gdańsk: match statistics

Flota Świnoujście are showing clearly superior current form: they have collected 10 points from their last five matches, winning 3 games, while Gedania Gdańsk have managed just 2 points and have not recorded a victory during that period. The hosts have scored 12 goals in their last five matches, whereas the visitors have netted 8 and conceded as many as 14. At home, Flota average 2 goals per match, while Gedania concede an average of 2.67 goals away from home and have kept no clean sheets. The visitors can pose a threat in attack, averaging 2.33 goals away from home with an xG of 1.42; however, their xG against stands at 1.86, indicating that they frequently allow opponents to create high-quality chances. Flota’s superior form and more consistent results point towards a home win, although Gedania’s attacking profile increases the likelihood of them scoring and of a high-scoring outcome.

The signal for both teams to score is very strong: BTTS occurred in 75% of Flota’s matches and in all of Gedania’s fixtures, compared with a league average of 75%. Neither team has kept a clean sheet, while the hosts concede an average of 2.75 goals per match and the visitors 2.67. In their last five matches, both teams recorded BTTS in 80% of games; Flota scored an average of 2.4 goals, while Gedania, despite being in poorer form, scored 1.6. Gedania allowed opponents an average of 2.8 goals across its last five appearances, while its attacking xG stands at 1.11, still providing a realistic basis for scoring against a Flota side that concedes an average of 1.99 xG. The BTTS - Yes scenario is more likely, as both teams’ strong attacking efficiency is accompanied by clearly weak defensive statistics.

The profile of both teams clearly points to goals: Flota average 2.00 goals scored and 2.75 conceded, while Gedania score 2.33 and allow opponents 2.67 goals. In the current campaign, at least 2 goals have been scored in 100% of matches involving each team, while the Over 2.5 goals line has landed in 75% of Flota’s games and in every Gedania match. Recent form also confirms the attacking outlook, with the hosts averaging 2.4 goals scored in their previous five appearances, while the visitors have conceded as many as 2.8 goals. Neither team has kept a clean sheet yet, and both teams have scored in 75% of Flota’s matches and 100% of Gedania’s. The strongest selection is Over 1.5 goals, as very weak defences and an unbroken run of matches with at least two goals give this line a clear edge.

Gedania has clear potential to make a strong start: they were leading at the break in 67% of their matches, scoring an average of 1.33 goals before half-time and conceding just 0.33. Flota can also be active from the outset, but they went into the interval trailing in half of their matches, with an average first-half record of 1.0 goal scored and 1.0 conceded. After the break, however, the form advantage shifts to the home side: in their last five matches, Flota averaged 1.8 goals, while Gedania conceded 2.2 goals and failed to win any second half. Recent full-match form also favours Flota, who won 3 of their last 5 matches and scored 2.4 goals per game, compared with 0 wins for Gedania, who conceded an average of 2.8 goals. The most likely outcome therefore remains a home lead at the break followed by a home win, although the high defensive volatility of both teams reduces confidence in this HT/FT selection.