Flota Świnoujście vs Kalisz: match statistics

The favorite in this match is Kalisz: the visitors have scored 5 goals in their last 5 matches with 2 wins, while Flota Świnoujście has scored 4 goals and won only once in the same period. Kalisz also has a higher average points return over the last five matches — 1.2 points per game versus Flota’s 0.8, indicating greater consistency in results. Both teams, however, have serious defensive issues: each has conceded 9 goals in their last five matches, i.e. 1.8 goals per game on average, which suggests an open, high-scoring affair. Considering the visitors’ superior offensive efficiency and higher points return combined with similar defensive frailties, I give Kalisz a slight edge. I predict an away win; estimated probabilities are 45% for Kalisz, 30% for Flota and 25% for a draw.

Both teams have BTTS in 40% of their last 5 matches (2/5 each), indicating a moderate frequency of mutual scoring. Flota Świnoujście averages 0.8 goals per match with xG 1.17 over the last 5, while Kalisz averages 1.0 goals with xG 1.03; this shows Flota is underperforming its chances (0.8 vs 1.17), whereas Kalisz converts closer to expected (1.0 vs 1.03). Both sides concede an average of 1.8 goals in the last 5 (Flota 9 conceded, Kalisz 9 conceded), with xG against 1.95 for Flota and 1.72 for Kalisz, so defenses are vulnerable to goals. Despite defensive susceptibility, Flota’s low finishing (0.8 goals on xG 1.17) reduces the likelihood that both teams will score. Therefore I propose a split of 40% for BTTS - Yes and 60% for BTTS - No, with 'No' the more probable outcome.

The model combines the last 5-match xG and xG against, producing expected goals of 1.45 for Flota and 1.49 for Kalisz, totaling 2.94. This translates to approximately a 79% chance of at least 2 goals (Over 1.5), 56% for at least 3 goals (Over 2.5) and 34% for at least 4 goals (Over 3.5). Additionally, in the last 5 matches Flota had Over 2.5 in 80% of games, Kalisz in 60%, and both teams conceded 9 goals in those 5 matches each (average 1.8 per match), indicating weaker defenses. Actual scored goals were lower (Flota 0.8, Kalisz 1.0 in the last 5), while xG were 1.17 and 1.03, suggesting missed chances but not reducing goal potential. As a result the strongest signal is Over 1.5 (79%) and I recommend that side of the 1.5 line to play.

From their last 5 matches Kalisz led at the break in 3 of 5 (60%), while Flota led in only 1 of 5 (20%), which favors the visitors in the first half. In the first half Kalisz averages 0.8 goals versus 0.4 for Flota, with both teams conceding an average of 0.6 goals before the break, so the first goal more often falls on the visitors’ side. Over full matches Kalisz won 2 of 5 (40%) and Flota 1 of 5 (20%), and the visitors average 1.8 points at half-time versus 1.0 for the hosts, increasing the chance of maintaining the lead. After the break Flota averages 0.4 goals, Kalisz 0.2, with average post-break concessions of 1.2 goals for both teams and a high share of matches with second-half goals (80% for Flota, 60% for Kalisz), which gives moderate chances of a turnaround. On this basis the strongest signal is 2/2 (Kalisz leading at half-time and winning), so I assigned the highest probability to that scenario.