Flota Świnoujście vs Kotwica Kórnik: match statistics

Kotwica Kórnik have shown clearly better form in their last five matches, winning 3 games and averaging 1.8 points per match, while Flota Świnoujście have recorded just 1 victory and 0.8 points per game. The visitors have scored as many as 18 goals during this period, averaging 3.6 per match, compared with Flota’s 4 goals. However, the hosts are also struggling defensively, conceding 7 goals in their last five appearances, while their only home game so far ended in a 0:1 defeat. Kotwica have likewise offered little defensive stability, conceding 17 goals in five matches, but their significantly greater attacking efficiency should tip the balance in the visitors’ favour. A game with goals at both ends and a Kotwica victory is therefore the most likely outcome.

The BTTS - Yes pick is primarily supported by Kotwica’s highly open profile in recent matches: they averaged 3.6 goals scored and 3.4 conceded, while both teams scored in 100% of their last five games. Over the same period, Flota scored just 0.8 goals per match, but their opponents were allowed plenty of chances, with an average of 1.73 expected goals conceded. Flota’s defense also appears vulnerable to conceding, having allowed opponents 2.14 xG per match in their last five games, compared with 1.4 goals actually conceded. An additional argument is the league’s 78% BTTS rate, although Flota’s lower attacking efficiency reduces confidence and leaves a genuine risk that they will fail to convert their chances.

Kotwica have averaged 3.6 goals scored and 3.4 conceded over their last five matches, producing a remarkable 35 goals in those games. Each of their five most recent matches went Over 2.5 goals, with both teams scoring in 100% of those fixtures. Flota have scored just 0.8 goals over the same period, but their opponents have created chances worth 2.14 xG per match against them, so the visitors should have clear scoring opportunities. In addition, the league average of 4.67 goals and 67% of matches featuring at least three goals support the scenario of an open game. The strongest pick, however, is Over 1.5 goals, as even after a more conservative adjustment for Kotwica’s exceptionally high-scoring results, the projected total of 3.30 goals gives this line the greatest margin of safety.

The strongest signal points to Kotwica leading at the break and maintaining that advantage until the final whistle, as the visitors have won 60% of their last five matches and led at half-time in 67% of them. During this period, Kotwica averaged 2.0 goals before the break, while Flota scored just 0.4, and the hosts were behind at half-time in 40% of their recent matches. Flota also has very weak defensive numbers at home: they concede an average of 6.0 goals per match, with an against-xG of 3.06, and lost 2–6 in their only available home appearance. The visitors are also highly attacking over the full match, averaging 3.6 goals scored across their last five outings, although their average of 3.4 goals conceded per match increases the risk of a response from the hosts. Kotwica’s incomplete season data calls for caution, but the superiority of their first-half attacking output over Flota’s defensive weakness makes 2/2 the most likely HT/FT outcome.