Brazil - Serie AEstadio Jornalista Mário FilhoData current as of 17 October 2026

Fluminense vs Santos: match statistics

Reasoning:

Full analysis and pick in the app

Check the betting analysis, pick, value bet and full reasoning for this match.

Check analysis and pick

Fluminense vs Santos: form, goals and key statistics

Key match information

Fluminense play Santos in Serie A (Brazil). The match date is 18 October 2026. Venue: Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho.

Current form

Fluminense: 3-0-2, 1.80 points/match. Santos: 3-1-1, 2.00 points/match.

Goal statistics

Fluminense scores 1.60 and concedes 1.23 goals per match. Santos scores 1.53 and concedes 1.50. League average: 2.68 goals.

BTTS / Over / Under

BTTS: Fluminense 70%, Santos 73%. Over 2.5: Fluminense 53%, Santos 67%. League level: BTTS 60%, Over 2.5 52%.

xG, shots and style

Fluminense has higher xG: 1.68 vs 1.43. Fluminense: 14.8 shots per match, Santos: 13.3.

Match halves

Fluminense: half-time lead 37%, second-half goals 1.00. Santos: half-time lead 33%, second-half goals 0.83.

Goals by minute

Fluminense: 76-90+ (16 goals). Santos: 76-90+ (12 goals). This is historical distribution, not a predicted goal minute.

League context

Serie A: 2.68 goals per match, BTTS 60%, Over 2.5 52%.

Head-to-head

Before this fixture, 3 previous H2H matches were available: 2-1-0. Average goals 2.00, BTTS 33%.

Before the match

1X2 odds

(2.25)
(3.25)
(3.10)

Pre-match profile— what do the season numbers say?

This is a team profile based on season data and form. Match-flow statistics are shown only after the fixture is played.

1.6Goals scored / match1.53
FluminenseSantos
1.23Goals conceded / match1.5
FluminenseSantos
58%Average possession50%
FluminenseSantos
5.73Shots on target / match3.97
FluminenseSantos

Team stats— who is more efficient?

Attack and defence comparison for both teams in the current season.

14.83Shots per match13.3
FluminenseSantos
5.73Shots on target3.97
FluminenseSantos
10.8%Shot conversion11.5%
FluminenseSantos
58%Possession50%
FluminenseSantos
1.68xG for1.43
FluminenseSantos
1.45xG against1.48
FluminenseSantos

Shooting quality

Fluminense: DominantSantos: Balanced
FluminenseSantos
Accuracy (shots on target)39%30%
Chance quality (xG per shot)0.110.11
Finishing (goals per shot on target)0.280.39

xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.

* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.

Team form— who is in better shape?

Last five matches and season record, overall and split by home and away matches.

Santos is 11% better for: last-5 form.

1.8 pts / match - Fluminense · 2 pts / match - Santos

Fluminense
WLWWL
Season result split
47% W30% D23% L
Season (W-D-L)
14-9-7
1.70 pts / match · goal difference +11
Last 5 (W-D-L)
3-0-2
1.80 pts / match
Record at home (W-D-L)
11-3-1
Last 5 at home
4-1-0
DWWWW
Last 5 matches - averages
Goals scored: 1.8Goals conceded: 1.0xG: 1.40Opponent xG: 1.69BTTS: 40%Over 2.5: 60%
Santos
WWWDL
Season result split
37% W30% D33% L
Season (W-D-L)
11-9-10
1.40 pts / match · goal difference +1
Last 5 (W-D-L)
3-1-1
2.00 pts / match
Record away (W-D-L)
5-4-6
Last 5 away
4-0-1
WWWWL
Last 5 matches - averages
Goals scored: 1.8Goals conceded: 1.4xG: 1.62Opponent xG: 1.68BTTS: 100%Over 2.5: 100%

Goals— how do both teams score and concede?

How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.

Fluminense is 5% better for: goals scored per match.

1.6 goals / match - Fluminense · 1.53 goals / match - Santos

Fluminense is 22% better for: goals conceded per match.

1.23 goals / match - Fluminense · 1.5 goals / match - Santos

Fluminense scoring profile: very strong

Fluminense scores in 87% of matches (26 of 30 matches), while Santos keeps a clean sheet in 20% (6 of 30 matches).

Santos scoring profile: very strong

Santos scores in 90% of matches (27 of 30 matches), while Fluminense keeps a clean sheet in 20% (6 of 30 matches).

48Goals scored (season)46
FluminenseSantos
37Goals conceded (season)45
FluminenseSantos
2.83Average goals in match3.03
FluminenseSantos
9Goals scored (last 5)9
FluminenseSantos
5Goals conceded (last 5)7
FluminenseSantos

How often they score at least...

87%1 goal90%
FluminenseSantos
47%2 goals53%
FluminenseSantos
23%3 goals10%
FluminenseSantos
3%4 goals0%
FluminenseSantos

How often they concede at least...

80%1 goal80%
FluminenseSantos
33%2 goals50%
FluminenseSantos
10%3 goals17%
FluminenseSantos
0%4 goals3%
FluminenseSantos

* Statistics include both teams' home and away matches in the current season.

Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?

How often both teams' matches have goals on both sides, compared with the league average.

60%
League average

Goal patterns

17%BTTS at half-time23%
FluminenseSantos
13%BTTS in both halves10%
FluminenseSantos
33%Scored in both halves30%
FluminenseSantos

BTTS and goal count

50%Min. 3 goals and BTTS60%
FluminenseSantos
3%Min. 3 goals without BTTS7%
FluminenseSantos
40%BTTS - last 5100%
FluminenseSantos

Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these matches cross the goal lines?

How often matches involving these teams clear goal thresholds, in the full match and in each half.

1st half

70%Min. 1 goal before half-time77%
FluminenseSantos
23%Min. 2 goals before half-time43%
FluminenseSantos
7%Min. 3 goals before half-time7%
FluminenseSantos

2nd half

87%Min. 1 goal after half-time83%
FluminenseSantos
53%Min. 2 goals after half-time50%
FluminenseSantos
33%Min. 3 goals after half-time37%
FluminenseSantos

Match halves— when do the teams score more often?

How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.

Fluminense - half-time state
37% leading40% draw23% trailing
Santos - half-time state
33% leading47% draw20% trailing

Before half-time (1st half)

1.5Points per match (1st half)1.47
FluminenseSantos
0.6Goals scored (1st half)0.7
FluminenseSantos
0.4Goals conceded (1st half)0.57
FluminenseSantos
1Average goals (1st half)1.27
FluminenseSantos
63%Clean sheet before half-time57%
FluminenseSantos
50%No goal before half-time43%
FluminenseSantos

After half-time (2nd half)

1.53Points per match (2nd half)1.3
FluminenseSantos
1Goals scored (2nd half)0.83
FluminenseSantos
0.83Goals conceded (2nd half)0.93
FluminenseSantos
1.83Average goals (2nd half)1.77
FluminenseSantos
37%Clean sheet after half-time43%
FluminenseSantos
30%No goal after half-time37%
FluminenseSantos

Fluminense - second-half results

40% W33% D27% L
45
Half-time points
18
Half-time goals
+6
Goal difference (1st half)
46
Second-half points
+5
Goal difference (2nd half)
1.50
PPG before half-time
Lead holding127%

Leads at half-time in 37% of matches and wins 47%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.

Defence after half-time+0.4

Concedes 0.4 more goals per match after half-time - defensive level drops in the second half.

Santos - second-half results

37% W20% D43% L
44
Half-time points
21
Half-time goals
+4
Goal difference (1st half)
39
Second-half points
-3
Goal difference (2nd half)
1.47
PPG before half-time
Lead holding112%

Leads at half-time in 33% of matches and wins 37%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.

Defence after half-time+0.4

Concedes 0.4 more goals per match after half-time - defensive level drops in the second half.

Fluminense - last 5 matches by half
1st half2nd half
Points per match1.801.80
Goals scored / match0.41.4
Goals conceded / match0.01.0
Average goals in match0.42.4
1 goal40%100%
2 goals0%60%
3 goals0%60%
Clean sheet100%40%
No goal60%20%
Goal difference+2+2
Half-time: 40% leading - 60% draw - 0% trailing
2nd half: 60% won - 0% draw - 40% lost
BTTS at half-time (last 5): 0% - Half-time goals total: 2
Santos - last 5 matches by half
1st half2nd half
Points per match1.201.80
Goals scored / match0.61.2
Goals conceded / match0.60.8
Average goals in match1.22.0
1 goal60%100%
2 goals60%60%
3 goals0%40%
Clean sheet60%40%
No goal60%20%
Goal difference0+2
Half-time: 20% leading - 60% draw - 20% trailing
2nd half: 60% won - 0% draw - 40% lost
BTTS at half-time (last 5): 20% - Half-time goals total: 3

* Colours in tables show event frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate, red is rare. It is frequency, not a team rating.

Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?

Match phases in which both teams most often score and concede.

Fluminense
ScoredConceded
2
6
0-15
8
1
16-30
8
5
31-45
8
6
46-60
6
9
61-75
16
10
76-90

Most dangerous in minutes 76-90 (16 goals). Concedes most in 76-90 (10). Late-goal balance (76-90): +6 - wins late phases.

Santos
ScoredConceded
2
3
0-15
8
6
16-30
11
8
31-45
8
5
46-60
5
9
61-75
12
14
76-90

Most dangerous in minutes 76-90 (12 goals). Concedes most in 76-90 (14). Late-goal balance (76-90): -2 - late phases are a weakness.

* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.

Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?

A comparison of chance quality, results and trends based on completed matches from the current season.

Match profile

2.93
Estimated goals
attack vs opponent defence
1.6 : 1.4
Estimated goal split
home : away
109%
Pace vs league
100% = league average
72%
Both teams scored (BTTS)
average from both teams' seasons
-32%
Derby effect
H2H goals vs typical matches
78%
BTTS estimate
from both teams' scoring frequency
1%
0:0 risk
about 1 in 100 matches
2-3
Most common goal range
attack vs defence on both sides

Fluminense

Net xG balance
Difference between the quality of chances created and allowed per match.
+0.23
Results compared with xG
Difference between the actual goal balance and the balance suggested by xG.
+0.14
Points compared with goal balance
Comparison between collected points and the points implied by the team's goal balance.
-5.5 pts
Finishing efficiency
Does the team convert chances? Positive means it scores more than the quality of chances suggests.
-0.08
Defensive efficiency
Does the defence or goalkeeper save the team? Positive means it concedes less than the chances allowed suggest.
+0.22
Attack vs league
How much the team scores compared with the league average for this role. 120% means 20% above average.
104%
Defence vs league
How much the team concedes compared with the league average. 80% means 20% fewer goals conceded.
108%
Form trend
Compares points from the last 5 matches with the whole-season average.
+0.10
Stronger second half?
How many more goals the team scores after half-time than before it.
+0.4
Late goals
33% of this team's goals come in minutes 76-90. For comparison, 4% come in the first quarter-hour.
33%

Santos

Net xG balance
Difference between the quality of chances created and allowed per match.
-0.05
Results compared with xG
Difference between the actual goal balance and the balance suggested by xG.
+0.08
Points compared with goal balance
Comparison between collected points and the points implied by the team's goal balance.
-4.0 pts
Finishing efficiency
Does the team convert chances? Positive means it scores more than the quality of chances suggests.
+0.10
Defensive efficiency
Does the defence or goalkeeper save the team? Positive means it concedes less than the chances allowed suggest.
-0.02
Attack vs league
How much the team scores compared with the league average for this role. 120% means 20% above average.
134%
Defence vs league
How much the team concedes compared with the league average. 80% means 20% fewer goals conceded.
97%
Form trend
Compares points from the last 5 matches with the whole-season average.
+0.60
Stronger second half?
How many more goals the team scores after half-time than before it.
+0.1
Late goals
26% of this team's goals come in minutes 76-90. For comparison, 4% come in the first quarter-hour.
26%

* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range are calculated from public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical match profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed matches from the season.

League context— is this a high-scoring league?

How both teams compare with league-wide averages (Serie A).

Teams vs league

FluminenseLigaSantos
Average goals in match▲ 2.832.68▲ 3.03
Both teams scored▲ 70%60%▲ 73%
Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5)• 53%52%▲ 67%
Clean sheets▼ 20%23%▼ 20%
Goal before half-time▼ 70%75%▲ 77%
Goal after half-time▲ 87%79%▲ 83%

^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.

2.68
Average goals per match
60%
Both teams scored
52%
Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5)
23%
Clean sheets
1.54
Home goals / match
1.14
Away goals / match
+35%
Home attack advantage
+26%
Home defence advantage
+23%
Total home advantage
Goals in 1st half (whole league)
75%
1 goal
34%
2 goals
9%
3 goals
2%
4 goals
Goals in 2nd half (whole league)
79%
1 goal
45%
2 goals
18%
3 goals
5%
4 goals

Head-to-head

Recent meetings (3): Fluminense 2 - 1 - 0 Santos. Average goals 2.00, both teams scored in 33% matches.

Santos
2 : 3
Fluminense
Santos FC Sao Paulo
0 : 0
Fluminense FC
Fluminense FC
1 : 0
Santos FC Sao Paulo

FAQ

When do Fluminense and Santos play?

Fluminense face Santos on 18 October 2026 in Serie A at Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho. The exact kick-off time in your timezone is shown at the top of the match page.

What is the head-to-head record between Fluminense and Santos?

In the last 3 head-to-head matches Fluminense won 2, Santos won 0 and 1 ended level. These games averaged 2.00 goals, with both teams scoring in 33% of them.

What do the goal statistics show before Fluminense vs Santos?

Fluminense score 1.60 goals per game on average and Santos 1.53. The Serie A average is 2.68 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 52% of games. Both teams score in 70% of Fluminense's matches and 73% of Santos's.

What form are Fluminense and Santos in?

Over the last 5 games Fluminense have a 3-0-2 record (1.80 points per game) and Santos 3-1-1 (2.00 points per game).

Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for Fluminense vs Santos?

The statistical background for Fluminense vs Santos — form, head-to-head, goals, BTTS and Over/Under — is on this page. The tip with full reasoning and a value assessment is in the NoFluffPicks app.