Fluminense vs Vitória: match statistics
Fluminense vs Vitória: form, goals and key statistics
Key match information
Fluminense played Vitória in Serie A (Brazil). The match was played on 9 May 2026. Final score: 2:2.
Current form
Fluminense: 2-1-2, 1.40 points/match. Vitória: 2-2-1, 1.60 points/match.
Goal statistics
Fluminense scores 1.64 and concedes 1.29 goals per match. Vitória scores 1.23 and concedes 1.38. League average: 2.64 goals.
BTTS / Over / Under
BTTS: Fluminense 71%, Vitória 46%. Over 2.5: Fluminense 57%, Vitória 38%. League level: BTTS 57%, Over 2.5 50%.
xG, shots and style
Fluminense has higher xG: 1.80 vs 1.20. Fluminense: 15.9 shots per match, Vitória: 10.8.
Match halves
Fluminense: half-time lead 43%, second-half goals 0.93. Vitória: half-time lead 31%, second-half goals 0.69.
Goals by minute
Fluminense: 46-60 (6 goals). Vitória: 16-30 (4 goals). This is historical distribution, not a predicted goal minute.
League context
Serie A: 2.64 goals per match, BTTS 57%, Over 2.5 50%.
Head-to-head
Before this fixture, 2 previous H2H matches were available: 1-1-0. Average goals 1.50, BTTS 50%.
Archived pre-match analysis
This analysis was prepared before kick-off. The conclusions use only information available before the match and do not include the final result or post-match statistics.
General match analysis
I back the home win (1). Fluminense clearly dominates home metrics: 86% home win rate, 1.86 average goals scored per match and xG 2.05, with 7.57 shots on target, 18.14 total shots and 61% possession. Vitória are poor away: 0% wins, just 0.67 goals per away match and xG 0.96, with 3.17 shots on target and on average 2.5 goals conceded away. Although the visitors scored 9 goals in their last 5 matches and average 1.4 pts/match in that run, their away issues are evident: 67% away losses, 33% of away matches without a goal and 0% clean sheets on the road. Given the clear advantage in xG (2.05 vs 0.96), shot volume (18.14 vs 8.17) and Vitória’s higher defensive fragility away (2.5 conceded), I give Fluminense a significant edge and expect their victory.
View the statistical overviewBTTS - will both teams score?
The dominant signal is Fluminense's home defense: on average 0.43 goals conceded per game and 71% home clean sheets, with a seasonal home BTTS rate of just 29%. Vitória away concedes an average of 2.5 goals, has recorded no clean sheets (0%) and has a seasonal away BTTS of 67% (BTTS in last 5 matches 80%), but Vitória's away goals average is only 0.67 (xG 0.96). Fluminense's home attack delivers 1.71 goals per game, xG 1.41, on average 13 shots and 4.86 shots on target with a 13% conversion rate, suggesting the hosts should score at least one goal; Vitória averages 8.17 shots and has an 8% conversion, so their expected scoring is about 0.67 goals. Despite Vitória's offensive signals in the last 5 matches (9 goals, 1.8 avg), Fluminense's strong clean sheet rate (71%) and the hosts' low seasonal BTTS (29%) point toward a No Goal/No BTTS outcome. Therefore I assess BTTS - No at 65% and BTTS - Yes at 35% — pick: No.
View BTTS statisticsOver/Under - goals analysis
Fluminense averages 1.71 goals at home while Vitória concedes 2.50 goals away; season Over>1.5 rates are 71% for Fluminense and 100% for Vitória, strongly indicating at least 2 goals. xG analysis shows 1.41 xG for Fluminense at home and 1.89 xG for Vitória away — averaging roughly 1.65 expected goals for the hosts. Vitória has 0.96 xG per game and Fluminense has xG_against 1.15, so I expect about 0.95 goals for the visitors; total expected goals ≈2.60 (1.65+0.95), close to the league average of 2.64. Based on this the strongest signal is the over on the 1.5 line (estimated probability of over1.5 ≈90%), while over2.5 I assess at ≈42% and over3.5 at ≈22%, therefore I recommend playing over 1.5.
View Over/Under statisticsHT/FT - half-time and full-time scenario
Fluminense are the favorites: at home they have won 71% of matches and average 1.71 goals per game versus Vitória’s 0.67, with home xG 1.41 against 0.96 for the visitors. At half-time Fluminense led in 4 of 7 home fixtures (57%), scoring on average 0.71 and conceding 0.43, while Vitória average 0.33 scored and 1.5 conceded by the break. The hosts register more shots (13.0 vs 8.17) and more shots on target (4.86 vs 3.17), with an accuracy of 13% versus the visitors’ 8%, which increases the likelihood of maintaining a lead. Fluminense keep 71% clean sheets at home on the season, while Vitória have only 17% clean sheets in first halves away, so the chance the visitors score before the break is low; therefore the 1/1 scenario is given the highest weight. Other combinations are less likely: half-time/full-time draw/draw (X/X) I assess at 13%, home lead to draw (1/X) at 8%, and the total probability of a Vitória win by full-time I leave very low (≈3%).
View first-half and second-half statisticsHalf-by-half
Match statistics
Pre-match profile— what do the season numbers say?
This is a team profile based on season data and form. Match-flow statistics are shown only after the fixture is played.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Attack and defence comparison for both teams in the current season.
Shooting quality
| Fluminense | Vitória | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 40% | 38% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.11 | 0.11 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.26 | 0.30 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five matches and season record, overall and split by home and away matches.
Vitória is 14% better for: last-5 form.
1.4 pts / match - Fluminense · 1.6 pts / match - Vitória
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
Fluminense is 33% better for: goals scored per match.
1.64 goals / match - Fluminense · 1.23 goals / match - Vitória
Fluminense is 7% better for: goals conceded per match.
1.29 goals / match - Fluminense · 1.38 goals / match - Vitória
Fluminense scores in 93% of matches (13 of 14 matches), while Vitória keeps a clean sheet in 38% (5 of 13 matches).
Vitória scores in 77% of matches (10 of 13 matches), while Fluminense keeps a clean sheet in 21% (3 of 14 matches).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away matches in the current season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often both teams' matches have goals on both sides, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these matches cross the goal lines?
How often matches involving these teams clear goal thresholds, in the full match and in each half.
Full match - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under - Fluminense
Over / Under - Vitória
1st half
2nd half
Match halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
Fluminense is 25% better for: first-half form (half-time points).
1.64 pts / match - Fluminense · 1.31 pts / match - Vitória
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
Fluminense - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 43% of matches and wins 57%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Concedes 0.4 more goals per match after half-time - defensive level drops in the second half.
Vitória - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 31% of matches and wins 38%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Defence stays stable across the full match.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 0.60 | 1.60 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.2 | 1.2 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.6 | 1.0 |
| Average goals in match | 0.8 | 2.2 |
| 1 goal | 60% | 100% |
| 2 goals | 20% | 80% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 40% |
| Clean sheet | 40% | 0% |
| No goal | 80% | 20% |
| Goal difference | -2 | +1 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.80 | 1.60 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.8 | 0.8 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.4 | 0.6 |
| Average goals in match | 1.2 | 1.4 |
| 1 goal | 60% | 80% |
| 2 goals | 40% | 60% |
| 3 goals | 20% | 0% |
| Clean sheet | 60% | 60% |
| No goal | 40% | 40% |
| Goal difference | +2 | +1 |
* Colours in tables show event frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate, red is rare. It is frequency, not a team rating.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
Match phases in which both teams most often score and concede.
Most dangerous in minutes 46-60 (6 goals). Concedes most in 0-15 (5). Late-goal balance (76-90): +1 - wins late phases.
Most dangerous in minutes 16-30 (4 goals). Concedes most in 31-45 (8). Late-goal balance (76-90): -1 - late phases are a weakness.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends based on completed matches from the current season.
Match profile
Fluminense
Vitória
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range are calculated from public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical match profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed matches from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (Serie A).
Teams vs league
| Fluminense | Liga | Vitória | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals in match | ▲ 2.93 | 2.64 | • 2.62 |
| Both teams scored | ▲ 71% | 57% | ▼ 46% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | ▲ 57% | 50% | ▼ 38% |
| Clean sheets | ▼ 21% | 24% | ▲ 38% |
| Goal before half-time | ▼ 71% | 75% | ▲ 77% |
| Goal after half-time | ▲ 86% | 76% | ▼ 69% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Lineups and player events
Verified starters, substitutes and recorded player events for this match.
Home team
Starting lineup
Substitutes
Away team
Starting lineup
Substitutes
Match timeline
Goals, cards and substitutions arranged in chronological order.
Referee and managers
Open their season profiles to compare match records, goals and disciplinary trends.
Head-to-head
Recent meetings (2): Fluminense 1 - 1 - 0 Vitória. Average goals 1.50, both teams scored in 50% matches.
FAQ
What was the result of Fluminense vs Vitória?
The Serie A match finished Fluminense 2:2 Vitória. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What is the head-to-head record between Fluminense and Vitória?
In the last 2 head-to-head matches Fluminense won 1, Vitória won 0 and 1 ended level. These games averaged 1.50 goals, with both teams scoring in 50% of them.
What do the goal statistics show before Fluminense vs Vitória?
Fluminense score 1.64 goals per game on average and Vitória 1.23. The Serie A average is 2.64 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 50% of games. Both teams score in 71% of Fluminense's matches and 46% of Vitória's.
What form are Fluminense and Vitória in?
Over the last 5 games Fluminense have a 2-1-2 record (1.40 points per game) and Vitória 2-2-1 (1.60 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for Fluminense vs Vitória?
Here you can check the pre-match numbers for Fluminense vs Vitória: form, H2H, goals and Over/Under. The pick itself, value and reasoning are published in the NoFluffPicks app.