Foggia vs Salernitana: match statistics

Foggia opened the season with a 1:0 win, while Salernitana lost their first match 1:2, giving the hosts a slight edge ahead of this head-to-head clash. In their last five matches, both teams collected 4 points, recording one win, one draw and three defeats, so current form does not point to a clear favourite. Salernitana scored 5 goals during this period compared with Foggia’s 4, but both defences conceded 7 goals, averaging 1.4 per match. Home advantage and a clean sheet in their only league match so far marginally favour Foggia. However, the small differences between the teams and their struggles to collect points consistently increase the likelihood of a draw.

The BTTS signal is moderately positive, as both teams recorded this scenario in 60% of their last five matches, while the league average is as high as 70%. Foggia conceded an average of 1.4 goals during this period, with an xG against of 1.55, while Salernitana also allowed opponents 1.4 goals and 1.53 xG. The visitors averaged 1.0 goal across their last five appearances, and their xG of 1.49 suggests they should create chances even against Foggia’s weak defence. The hosts scored just 4 goals in five matches, but Salernitana conceded 7 over the same period, giving Foggia a realistic route to find the net. Seasonal data is very limited, so the edge towards BTTS - Yes is not strong; however, the current numbers from both defences provide greater support for goals at both ends.

In their last five matches, Foggia averaged 0.8 goals scored and 1.4 conceded, while Salernitana scored 1.0 and also conceded 1.4 goals. This points to a match more likely to produce 2–3 goals than an open exchange leading to four goals. Both teams had 40% of their matches with at least three goals in their last five outings, so the 2.5 line remains finely balanced. At the same time, the xG figures from the last five matches stand at 1.23 for Foggia and 1.49 for Salernitana, with corresponding xGA values of 1.55 and 1.53, supporting a forecast of around 2.55 goals. The strongest signal is therefore Under 3.5 goals: even with both sides creating scoring chances, four goals would be required, while recent results do not indicate such a high frequency.

The strongest scenario is a draw at half-time followed by a Salernitana victory, as the visitors were level at the break in 60% of their last five matches, compared with 40% for Foggia. The first halves of both teams’ matches were low-scoring: Foggia averaged 0.4 goals and Salernitana just 0.2, while both teams averaged exactly 1.0 goal per match after half-time. After the break, however, Salernitana scored an average of 0.8 goals compared with Foggia’s 0.4, and their goal difference in this period was +1, whereas the hosts did not record a positive goal difference. Foggia lost 60% of their last five matches and conceded an average of 1.4 goals per game, which, combined with just 0.8 goals scored, strengthens the likelihood that an even start will turn in the visitors’ favour in the second half.