Foggia vs Savoia: match statistics

Savoia go into this match in clearly better form: they have won 3 of their last 5 games and scored 10 goals in that run, while Foggia have suffered 3 defeats and conceded 8 goals. Away from home, the visitors average 2.0 goals per match and have failed to score in none of their games, whereas the hosts score just 0.5 goals per home match and have drawn a blank in 50% of their appearances. Foggia do create plenty of chances, recording 21 shots and an xG of 2.06 at home, but this translates into a mere 2% conversion rate. Savoia are far more clinical, converting 17% of their attempts, and their positive away goal difference (+1) contrasts with Foggia’s record (-2). Both teams concede an average of 1.5 goals in the respective home–away split, so the visitors should edge this match, although the hosts are also capable of creating chances.

The signal for both teams to score is moderately positive, as both Foggia and Savoia recorded BTTS in 60% of their last five matches, compared with the league average of 56%. Savoia score an average of 2.0 goals per match, register 3.5 shots on target and have an xG of 1.48, while Foggia concede an average of 1.6 goals across their last five appearances. The hosts have a weaker scoring rate, with just 0.8 goals in their last five matches, but their current xG stands at 1.63, while Savoia allow opponents an xG of 1.88. Additionally, Foggia have not kept a clean sheet this season, while Savoia have not finished any match without scoring. The 50% clean-sheet rate recorded by Savoia this season is a risk to the pick; however, the hosts’ advantage in the quality of their recent chances slightly supports the BTTS scenario.

The strongest pick is Over 1.5 goals, as both teams have surpassed this line in 100% of their available matches this season. Foggia concede an average of 2.0 goals per match, while Savoia score 2.0, strongly supporting at least two goals from the visitors or an open game scenario. In their last five matches, Savoia scored 10 goals, while Foggia conceded 8, with both teams averaging 60% of matches in which each side scored. Their attacking potential is also confirmed by the average xG figures: 1.63 for Foggia and 1.27 for Savoia in their last five appearances, alongside 1.40 and 1.88 xG conceded by their respective defenses. The projected total of 3.00 goals also gives Over 2.5 a moderate edge, but the 1.5 line remains considerably safer.

Savoia are in clearly better recent form, having won 3 of their last 5 matches and averaging 2.0 goals in those games, while Foggia have lost 3 of their last 5 and scored just 0.8 goals per match. The visitors’ advantage is already evident before the break, as they have averaged 1.4 first-half goals in their last five appearances compared with Foggia’s 0.6, while their first-half goal difference stands at +3 versus the hosts’ -1. Across the season, Foggia have lost all of their matches, conceded an average of 2.0 goals and kept no clean sheets, whereas Savoia have won 50% of their games. The visitors also create more chances, averaging 11.5 shots and 3.5 on target per match compared with Foggia’s 7.0 and 2.0. Therefore, the most likely HT/FT outcome is Savoia leading at the break and securing the win, corresponding to 2/2.