Folgore Caratese vs Desenzano Calvina: match statistics

Both teams have won just 1 of their 7 league matches, and each has recorded 1 win, 2 draws and 2 defeats in their last 5 games. Folgore Caratese create more chances at home, averaging 1.79 xG and 6.33 shots on target, while Desenzano Calvina average 1.30 xG and 3 shots on target away from home. However, the hosts concede an average of 2 goals per home match and have yet to keep a clean sheet there, which limits their chances of winning. The visitors concede just 0.75 goals per away match, although they allow opponents chances worth 1.94 xG, so that defensive efficiency may be difficult to sustain. With Desenzano drawing 50% of their away matches and Folgore drawing 33% at home, a share of the points looks the most likely outcome.

The strongest argument for at least one team failing to score is their low scoring output: Folgore Caratese average 0.33 goals at home, while Desenzano Calvina average 0.75 away. The hosts have failed to score in 67% of their home matches, while the visitors have drawn a blank in 50% of their away fixtures. Both teams scored in 33% of Folgore’s home matches and 50% of Desenzano’s away matches, against a league average of 49%. Some counterevidence comes from average xG figures of 1.33 and 1.30, as well as the fact that both teams scored in 60% and 40% of their respective last five matches. Even so, their season-long scoring records and frequent failures to find the net support the BTTS - No pick: at least one team is expected not to score.

Folgore Caratese matches have produced an average of 1.33 goals, while Desenzano Calvina fixtures have averaged 1.50, so both teams’ results to date point towards a low-scoring game. Under 3.5 goals has landed in 67% of the home team’s matches and 100% of the away team’s, while their average goals scored stand at 0.33 and 0.75, respectively. Folgore’s last five matches have averaged 2.2 goals, compared with 1.6 in Desenzano’s, which still supports the under-four-goals pick. The teams’ xG figures of 1.33 and 1.30 warrant some caution, as they suggest more chances than goals actually scored. Even so, the Under 3.5 goals line is best supported by both teams’ results and offers a greater margin for error than the 2.5 goals line.

A half-time draw occurred in 2 of Folgore Caratese’s 3 matches and 3 of Desenzano Calvina’s 4, with neither team scoring in the first half in this sample. A draw was also common after 90 minutes, accounting for 67% of the home side’s matches and 50% of the visitors’ games. The teams appear evenly matched in terms of chances created, with average xG figures of 1.33 and 1.30 respectively, further supporting the prospect of a balanced contest. Desenzano have the edge after the break, averaging 0.75 goals compared with Folgore’s 0.33, so a draw at half-time followed by an away win remains a notable alternative. However, the strongest single scenario is a draw both at half-time and at full-time.