Forest Green Rovers vs Carlisle United: match statistics
Forest Green Rovers displays impressive home form with a 63% win rate and an average of 1.88 goals per match at home, which supports the advantage of the hosts. A key factor is the high offensive efficiency of the hosts in home matches (xG 2.36) compared to the away xG of the visitors (1.59), indicating a qualitative advantage in created chances. Carlisle United has a solid away record (57% wins), however, the recent form of both teams (Forest Green 0.6 PPG, Carlisle 1.4 PPG in the last 5 matches) suggests fluctuations in performance. The difference in average possession (56% vs 49%) and the higher average shots on target of the hosts (7.25 vs 4.86) further speak in favor of the home team. Taking all statistics into account, Forest Green Rovers has the advantage, although Carlisle United as the third team in the table is capable of putting up a tough resistance, which justifies a moderate probability of a home win.
Forest Green Rovers vs Carlisle United: form, goals and key statistics
Key match information
Forest Green Rovers played Carlisle United in National League (England). The match was played on 14 February 2026. Final score: 1:3.
Current form
Forest Green Rovers: 1-1-3, 0.80 points/match. Carlisle United: 2-1-2, 1.40 points/match.
Goal statistics
Forest Green Rovers scores 1.69 and concedes 1.09 goals per match. Carlisle United scores 1.77 and concedes 1.19. League average: 2.84 goals.
BTTS / Over / Under
BTTS: Forest Green Rovers 69%, Carlisle United 48%. Over 2.5: Forest Green Rovers 50%, Carlisle United 55%. League level: BTTS 56%, Over 2.5 54%.
xG, shots and style
Forest Green Rovers has higher xG: 2.03 vs 1.86. Forest Green Rovers: 16.7 shots per match, Carlisle United: 14.9.
Match halves
Forest Green Rovers: half-time lead 34%, second-half goals 0.91. Carlisle United: half-time lead 42%, second-half goals 1.00.
Goals by minute
Forest Green Rovers: 46-60 (12 goals). Carlisle United: 76-90+ (13 goals). This is historical distribution, not a predicted goal minute.
League context
National League: 2.84 goals per match, BTTS 56%, Over 2.5 54%.
Head-to-head
Before this fixture, 1 previous H2H matches were available: 0-0-1. Average goals 6.00, BTTS 100%.
Archived pre-match analysis
This analysis was prepared before kick-off. The conclusions use only information available before the match and do not include the final result or post-match statistics.
General match analysis
Forest Green Rovers displays impressive home form with a 63% win rate and an average of 1.88 goals per match at home, which supports the advantage of the hosts. A key factor is the high offensive efficiency of the hosts in home matches (xG 2.36) compared to the away xG of the visitors (1.59), indicating a qualitative advantage in created chances. Carlisle United has a solid away record (57% wins), however, the recent form of both teams (Forest Green 0.6 PPG, Carlisle 1.4 PPG in the last 5 matches) suggests fluctuations in performance. The difference in average possession (56% vs 49%) and the higher average shots on target of the hosts (7.25 vs 4.86) further speak in favor of the home team. Taking all statistics into account, Forest Green Rovers has the advantage, although Carlisle United as the third team in the table is capable of putting up a tough resistance, which justifies a moderate probability of a home win.
View the statistical overviewHalf-by-half
Match statistics
Pre-match profile— what do the season numbers say?
This is a team profile based on season data and form. Match-flow statistics are shown only after the fixture is played.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Attack and defence comparison for both teams in the current season.
Shooting quality
| Forest Green Rovers | Carlisle United | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 38% | 41% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.12 | 0.12 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.27 | 0.29 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five matches and season record, overall and split by home and away matches.
Carlisle United is 75% better for: last-5 form.
0.8 pts / match - Forest Green Rovers · 1.4 pts / match - Carlisle United
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
Carlisle United is 5% better for: goals scored per match.
1.69 goals / match - Forest Green Rovers · 1.77 goals / match - Carlisle United
Forest Green Rovers is 9% better for: goals conceded per match.
1.09 goals / match - Forest Green Rovers · 1.19 goals / match - Carlisle United
Forest Green Rovers scores in 88% of matches (28 of 32 matches), while Carlisle United keeps a clean sheet in 35% (11 of 31 matches).
Carlisle United scores in 84% of matches (26 of 31 matches), while Forest Green Rovers keeps a clean sheet in 25% (8 of 32 matches).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away matches in the current season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often both teams' matches have goals on both sides, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these matches cross the goal lines?
How often matches involving these teams clear goal thresholds, in the full match and in each half.
Full match - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under - Forest Green Rovers
Over / Under - Carlisle United
1st half
2nd half
Match halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
Carlisle United is 12% better for: first-half form (half-time points).
1.38 pts / match - Forest Green Rovers · 1.55 pts / match - Carlisle United
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
Forest Green Rovers - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 34% of matches and wins 50%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Defence stays stable across the full match.
Carlisle United - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 42% of matches and wins 61%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Defence stays stable across the full match.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 0.40 | 1.80 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.6 | 1.2 |
| Goals conceded / match | 1.4 | 0.6 |
| Average goals in match | 2.0 | 1.8 |
| 1 goal | 100% | 100% |
| 2 goals | 80% | 40% |
| 3 goals | 20% | 40% |
| Clean sheet | 0% | 60% |
| No goal | 40% | 20% |
| Goal difference | -4 | +3 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 0.80 | 1.40 |
| Goals scored / match | 1.0 | 0.8 |
| Goals conceded / match | 1.0 | 1.0 |
| Average goals in match | 2.0 | 1.8 |
| 1 goal | 100% | 80% |
| 2 goals | 60% | 60% |
| 3 goals | 40% | 40% |
| Clean sheet | 20% | 20% |
| No goal | 40% | 60% |
| Goal difference | 0 | -1 |
* Colours in tables show event frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate, red is rare. It is frequency, not a team rating.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
Match phases in which both teams most often score and concede.
Most dangerous in minutes 46-60 (12 goals). Concedes most in 31-45 (9). Late-goal balance (76-90): +4 - wins late phases.
Most dangerous in minutes 76-90 (13 goals). Concedes most in 31-45 (12). Late-goal balance (76-90): +4 - wins late phases.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends based on completed matches from the current season.
Match profile
Forest Green Rovers
Carlisle United
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range are calculated from public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical match profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed matches from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (National League).
Teams vs league
| Forest Green Rovers | Liga | Carlisle United | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals in match | • 2.78 | 2.84 | ▲ 2.97 |
| Both teams scored | ▲ 69% | 56% | ▼ 48% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | ▼ 50% | 54% | • 55% |
| Clean sheets | • 25% | 25% | ▲ 35% |
| Goal before half-time | ▲ 84% | 71% | ▲ 77% |
| Goal after half-time | ▼ 78% | 80% | ▼ 77% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Lineups and player events
Verified starters, substitutes and recorded player events for this match.
Home team
Starting lineup
Away team
Starting lineup
Match timeline
Goals, cards and substitutions arranged in chronological order.
Referee and managers
Open their season profiles to compare match records, goals and disciplinary trends.
Head-to-head
Previous meeting: Forest Green Rovers 0 - 0 - 1 Carlisle United. Average goals 6.00, both teams scored in 100% matches.
FAQ
What was the result of Forest Green Rovers vs Carlisle United?
The National League match finished Forest Green Rovers 1:3 Carlisle United. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What do the goal statistics show before Forest Green Rovers vs Carlisle United?
Forest Green Rovers score 1.69 goals per game on average and Carlisle United 1.77. The National League average is 2.84 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 54% of games. Both teams score in 69% of Forest Green Rovers's matches and 48% of Carlisle United's.
What form are Forest Green Rovers and Carlisle United in?
Over the last 5 games Forest Green Rovers have a 1-1-3 record (0.80 points per game) and Carlisle United 2-1-2 (1.40 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for Forest Green Rovers vs Carlisle United?
The statistical background for Forest Green Rovers vs Carlisle United — form, head-to-head, goals, BTTS and Over/Under — is on this page. The tip with full reasoning and a value assessment is in the NoFluffPicks app.