Forfar Athletic vs Annan Athletic: match statistics

Annan Athletic head into this fixture in clearly superior recent form, having collected 10 points from their last five matches, including 3 wins, while Forfar Athletic have managed just 2 points and remain without a victory. The visitors have scored 11 goals during this period, compared with only 3 for the hosts, while Forfar have conceded as many as 13 goals across their five appearances. Forfar’s season-long home figures are nevertheless solid, with the team winning 67% of their home matches, averaging 1.33 goals scored and keeping a clean sheet in 67% of fixtures. Annan have a weaker away record, averaging 0.67 goals and losing 67% of their matches, but their recent attacking efficiency and defensive improvement—only 4 goals conceded in five matches—support a narrow away win. Annan’s advantage in current form and finishing quality should outweigh Forfar’s home advantage.

The BTTS - Yes scenario does not have a clear edge, mainly due to Forfar Athletic’s significant offensive regression: over their last 5 matches, the team has scored just 0.6 goals per game from 0.70 xG. Annan Athletic have defended very solidly recently, conceding an average of 0.8 goals per match with 0.93 xG against, and have conceded only 4 goals in total across their last 5 fixtures. The visitors should nevertheless find the net, as they are currently scoring 2.2 goals per match, while Forfar are conceding 2.6 goals and have allowed 13 goals in their last 5 appearances. Seasonal BTTS figures stand at just 50% for Forfar and 33% for Annan, below the league average of 54%. Therefore, it is more likely that at least one team—most notably the hosts—will fail to score, making BTTS - No the more probable outcome.

Annan are in clearly better form: over their last 5 matches, they have averaged 2.2 goals scored and just 0.8 conceded, while Forfar have scored 0.6 goals and allowed opponents 2.6. The hosts created just 0.70 xG per match during this period, whereas Annan allowed opponents 0.93 xG, which limits the forecast for Forfar’s goal tally. The visitors have a case for around 1.65 goals, but their season-long away average is only 0.67 goals, so a very high-scoring game is not the most likely scenario. Over 3.5 goals landed in only 25% of Forfar’s matches and in none of Annan’s, while both teams have seen at least three goals in 60% of their recent matches. Therefore, the safest pick is Under 3.5 goals, as Annan’s form supports goals, but the data does not confirm regular four-goal outcomes.

The strongest signal points toward Annan Athletic, who have averaged 2.2 goals scored and just 0.8 conceded over their last five matches, while Forfar have scored only 0.6 and allowed opponents 2.6. The hosts were trailing at half-time in 80% of their recent matches, failing to score in the first half of any of them, whereas the visitors were leading at the break in 40% of those games and averaged 0.8 first-half goals. Full-season first-half data also calls for caution regarding Annan’s attacking output, as they averaged no goals in that period, but Forfar’s poor current form clearly shifts the balance of power. After the break, Annan have averaged 1.4 goals across their last five appearances, while Forfar have conceded 1.2 in this period, increasing the likelihood that the visitors will maintain or extend their lead. Therefore, the most likely scenario is Annan leading at the break and going on to win at the final whistle: HT/FT 1/1.