Forlì vs Pescara: match statistics

Forlì remain unbeaten in their last 5 matches, recording 1 win and as many as 4 draws, while Pescara have lost 2 games over the same period. The hosts have scored 5 goals and conceded 4 in their last five appearances, giving them a slightly better record than the 4 goals scored and 4 conceded by the visitors. Forlì have averaged 1.4 points per game during this run, compared with Pescara’s 1.0, while home advantage will be an additional asset. Pescara began the season with a 2:0 win, suggesting their defence could make life difficult for the hosts, but their subsequent run featuring 2 defeats points to greater inconsistency. Forlì’s high number of draws increases the likelihood of a closely contested match, but a home win is marginally more probable.

The BTTS - No pick is slightly stronger, as the league records goals from both teams in just 40% of matches, while the average number of goals is only 2.1. In their last 5 matches, Forlì scored and conceded 0.8 goals per game, whereas Pescara averaged 0.8 goals scored, which limits confidence that the visitors will convert their chances. However, both teams have relatively respectable recent xG figures of 1.52 and 1.69 respectively, so a BTTS scenario remains plausible. Crucially, Pescara had BTTS in only 40% of their last 5 matches, while both teams conceded 4 goals during this period, which more often points to a low-scoring game with one side keeping a clean sheet than to an exchange of goals. Forlì also has a strong defensive signal at home: according to the season data, they kept a clean sheet in 100% of home matches, so the most likely outcome is that at least one team fails to score.

Forlì’s last five matches produced a total of 9 goals, with the team scoring 5 and conceding 4, averaging 1.8 goals per game. Pescara’s record over the same period is even lower: 4 goals scored and 4 conceded amount to an average of just 1.6 goals per match, while none of their last five games went Over 2.5 goals. Forlì recorded Over 2.5 goals in only 20% of its recent matches, compared with the league-wide average of 2.1 goals, supporting a scenario with a moderate number of goal-scoring opportunities. Pescara’s higher xG over the last five matches, at 1.69, increases the likelihood of at least two goals in total, but does not change the fact that both teams concede an average of 0.8 goals per game. Therefore, the clearest edge lies with Under 3.5, which also covers the frequent scorelines of 1:0, 1:1 and 2:0.

The strongest scenario is a draw at half-time followed by a Forlì win, as the hosts have been level at the break in 80% of their last five matches and have not lost any of those games. Forlì have averaged 0.6 goals scored and 0.4 conceded before half-time, while Pescara have scored just 0.4 goals and failed to score in three of their five first halves. After the break, Pescara concede an average of 0.6 goals while scoring only 0.4, which favors the hosts edging an even match in their favor. The overall form also supports Forlì: they have recorded one win and four draws in their last five matches, whereas Pescara have suffered two defeats. An additional argument is the hosts’ home advantage in the league, where the average number of goals scored by home teams is 1.6 compared with 0.5 for away teams.