Forlì vs Sassari Torres: match statistics

Forlì have posted very strong home results, winning both matches played so far, scoring an average of 4 goals and creating chances worth 2.21 xG per game. Sassari Torres have lost both away matches, scoring just 0.5 goals per game on the road and failing to find the net in 50% of those fixtures. The hosts average 21 shots and 5.5 shots on target, while the visitors record 9.5 and 3.5 respectively away from home. Forlì’s defence also limits opponents to just 1.08 xG, significantly less than Sassari Torres, who allow their opponents 2.09 xG away from home. Although Forlì concede an average of 2 goals at home and are yet to keep a clean sheet, their superiority in chance creation combined with the visitors’ extremely poor away efficiency clearly points to a home win.

Forlì are clearly more effective at home, averaging 2.0 goals with an xG of 2.37, while Sassari Torres concede an average of 2.0 goals away from home and allow opponents an xG of 2.09. The visitors score just 0.5 goals per away match, but their last five games have raised that average to 1.2 goals, while Forlì conceded as many as 2.0 goals per match during this period. Both teams have recorded BTTS in 50% of their matches across the season, but the current trend is more favorable: BTTS occurred in 80% of Forlì’s last five matches and 60% of Sassari Torres’ games. Sassari Torres have kept no clean sheets away from home, while the hosts average 7.5 shots on target compared with the visitors’ 3.5, which strongly supports a Forlì goal. The main risk for this pick is that Sassari Torres failed to score in 50% of their away matches; however, Forlì’s weaker recent defensive performances and the visitors’ xG of 1.60 across their last five games give a slight edge to the BTTS - Yes scenario.

Forlì have a clear attacking advantage: at home, they average 2.0 goals scored, produce 2.37 xG and register 7.5 shots on target per match. Away from home, Sassari Torres concede an average of 2.0 goals, have kept no clean sheets, and their average xG conceded is a high 2.09. Current form also points towards goals, as Forlì have scored 2.2 and conceded 2.0 goals per game across their last five matches, while the games involving both teams have finished Over 2.5 goals in 80% and 60% of cases, respectively. The visitors score just 0.5 goals away from home with 1.19 xG, so the hosts should be the main source of goals; however, at least two goals in the match remains the most likely scenario. Over 1.5 is favoured due to Forlì's attacking strength and Sassari Torres' consistent defensive problems, with lower risk than higher lines.

Forlì have a clear quality advantage: they average 2.0 goals scored compared with Sassari Torres’ 0.5, while their xG stands at 2.37 versus 1.19 for their opponents. The hosts also create significantly more chances, averaging 20.0 shots and 7.5 on target, compared with 9.5 and 3.5 respectively for the visitors. In their last five matches, Forlì averaged 1.0 goal scored before half-time, whereas Sassari Torres averaged just 0.2, with the visitors trailing at the break in 60% of those games. After the interval, the hosts remain particularly dangerous, having averaged 2.0 goals in the second half in the current data and won that half in 100% of matches, while Torres recorded a zero scoring average. The most likely outcome is therefore Forlì taking the lead at the break and maintaining their win until full-time.