Fortaleza CEIF vs Cúcuta Deportivo: match statistics

Fortaleza CEIF have a clear home advantage, winning 45% of such fixtures, while Cúcuta Deportivo have not won a single away match and have lost 64% of their games. The hosts average 1.27 goals scored at home with an xG of 1.51, whereas the visitors concede as many as 2.45 goals per away match and allow opponents an xG of 1.76. Fortaleza’s defence is considerably more stable, conceding an average of 0.91 goals at home compared with Cúcuta’s average of 1.00 goals scored away from home. However, both teams are in poor current form: Fortaleza have scored just 2 goals in their last 5 matches and have drawn four times, while Cúcuta have scored 3 goals and suffered 2 defeats over the same period. The hosts’ advantage in game control, reflected in average possession of 59% compared with the visitors’ 50%, should translate into a narrow but most likely Fortaleza victory.

The historical data for both teams points toward goals at both ends, as Fortaleza CEIF and Cúcuta Deportivo have recorded BTTS in 67% of their matches, compared with the league average of 53%. The visitors’ defense is particularly favorable for a home goal, conceding an average of 2.33 goals per match and keeping a clean sheet in only 8% of their appearances. Cúcuta score an average of 1.00 goal, while Fortaleza concede 1.44, with the hosts keeping a clean sheet in just 22% of matches. The main risk to the pick is the teams’ poor recent finishing, having scored only 0.4 and 0.6 goals respectively across their last five matches. However, their current xG figures of 1.49 and 1.32 suggest greater attacking potential than the results alone indicate. Therefore, BTTS - No means that at least one team fails to score; it does not automatically mean a 0:0 draw or that neither team will score.

Fortaleza have scored just 2 goals in their last five matches, averaging 0.4 per game, while Cúcuta have scored 3 during this period, averaging 0.6. However, the hosts have a solid basis for finding the net, as Cúcuta concede as many as 2.45 goals per match over the season and have kept a clean sheet in only 9% of their games. At the same time, Fortaleza’s current defensive form looks significantly better: they have conceded only 3 goals in their last five outings, with an average xG against of 1.02. Although Cúcuta’s matches have gone over 3.5 goals in 55% of cases this season, the current low scoring efficiency of both teams limits the prospect of a very high-scoring game. The projected total of 2.12 goals clearly favors the Under 3.5 goals bet, which should also cover typical scorelines such as 1:0, 1:1 or 2:1.

The strongest scenario is a draw at half-time and full-time, as Fortaleza have drawn 4 of their last 5 matches, while Cúcuta have drawn 3 of 5. Both teams are currently struggling in front of goal: the hosts have averaged 0.4 goals scored during this run, compared with 0.6 for the visitors, while Fortaleza failed to score before half-time in 4 of those 5 matches. Cúcuta have been drawing at the break in as many as 58% of their matches, whereas Fortaleza have had a level half-time score in 44% of their appearances. The hosts’ advantage over the course of the season remains significant, as Cúcuta have not won a single match and concede an average of 2.33 goals; however, the very low current scoring output of both sides increases the likelihood of the draw being maintained after the interval.