Fortaleza CEIF vs Deportivo Pasto: match statistics
Statistical analysis indicates very balanced chances for both teams. Fortaleza CEIF shows solid home form with 60% wins at home and a goal difference of +3, but their recent overall form is poor (0.8 points per match). Deportivo Pasto has a better overall record (7 wins) and recently earns 2 points per match, but their away form is unstable (40% wins, 40% losses). A key factor is the hosts' advantage in ball possession (59% vs 52%) and better xG in home matches (1.57 vs 1.38 for the visitors away). Taking into account that both teams have identical shooting efficiency (1.4 goals per match under respective conditions) and Fortaleza's tendency for draws at home (40%), the most likely outcome appears to be a share of the points.
Fortaleza CEIF vs Deportivo Pasto: form, goals and key statistics
Key match information
Fortaleza CEIF played Deportivo Pasto in Categoria Primera A (Colombia). The match was played on 25 March 2026. Final score: 1:2.
Current form
Fortaleza CEIF: 1-1-3, 0.80 points/match. Deportivo Pasto: 3-1-1, 2.00 points/match.
Goal statistics
Fortaleza CEIF scores 1.08 and concedes 1.50 goals per match. Deportivo Pasto scores 1.50 and concedes 1.17. League average: 2.56 goals.
BTTS / Over / Under
BTTS: Fortaleza CEIF 75%, Deportivo Pasto 50%. Over 2.5: Fortaleza CEIF 42%, Deportivo Pasto 50%. League level: BTTS 56%, Over 2.5 49%.
xG, shots and style
Deportivo Pasto has higher xG: 1.42 vs 1.31. Fortaleza CEIF: 12.8 shots per match, Deportivo Pasto: 13.3.
Match halves
Fortaleza CEIF: half-time lead 0%, second-half goals 0.92. Deportivo Pasto: half-time lead 42%, second-half goals 0.92.
Goals by minute
Fortaleza CEIF: 76-90+ (7 goals). Deportivo Pasto: 76-90+ (7 goals). This is historical distribution, not a predicted goal minute.
League context
Categoria Primera A: 2.56 goals per match, BTTS 56%, Over 2.5 49%.
Head-to-head
Before this fixture, 2 previous H2H matches were available: 1-0-1. Average goals 1.50, BTTS 0%.
Archived pre-match analysis
This analysis was prepared before kick-off. The conclusions use only information available before the match and do not include the final result or post-match statistics.
General match analysis
Statistical analysis indicates very balanced chances for both teams. Fortaleza CEIF shows solid home form with 60% wins at home and a goal difference of +3, but their recent overall form is poor (0.8 points per match). Deportivo Pasto has a better overall record (7 wins) and recently earns 2 points per match, but their away form is unstable (40% wins, 40% losses). A key factor is the hosts' advantage in ball possession (59% vs 52%) and better xG in home matches (1.57 vs 1.38 for the visitors away). Taking into account that both teams have identical shooting efficiency (1.4 goals per match under respective conditions) and Fortaleza's tendency for draws at home (40%), the most likely outcome appears to be a share of the points.
View the statistical overviewBTTS - will both teams score?
The data from the last 5 matches strongly supports BTTS: Fortaleza has an 80% BTTS rate and a significantly elevated goals conceded average (2.0 GA on average), while Pasto maintains a 60% BTTS rate with high offensive efficiency (2.2 goals and 1.95 xG per match). Both teams generate a similar volume of chances (shots on target: 4.0 vs 4.4; total shots: 13.14 vs 13.6), which favors at least one goal from each side. Defensively, Pasto looks seasonally weak (2.0 goals conceded per game and only 20% clean sheets), increasing the chances of a goal for the hosts. Conversely, Fortaleza's recent defensive form (10 goals conceded in the last 5 matches) raises the probability of the visitors scoring. Although Fortaleza's seasonal BTTS rate (43%) and high clean sheet percentage suggest caution, the current trend and xG parameters shift the balance towards "yes".
View BTTS statisticsOver/Under - goals analysis
The model favors a scenario with at least 2 goals, as both teams have high Over 1.5 rates (Fortaleza 71%, Pasto 80%) and very frequent Over 0.5 (86% and 100%). A key factor is Pasto's poor away defense: 2.0 goals conceded per match and 80% of matches with at least one goal conceded, which boosts the expected goals for the hosts. Although Fortaleza defends well seasonally (0.57 goals conceded at home and 57% clean sheets), the last 5 matches indicate greater variability and a higher tempo (Over 2.5 at 60% for both, BTTS 80% for the hosts). Shooting data is solid on both sides (approx. 13–14 shots and 4+ on target), supporting stable production of goal-scoring opportunities. The total expected goals of 2.83 suggests around 2–3 goals, therefore the strongest pick is Over 1.5.
View Over/Under statisticsHT/FT - half-time and full-time scenario
On a season-wide basis, Fortaleza demonstrates a clearly stronger profile: 2.43 PPG, 71% win rate, and just 0.57 goals conceded per match, with a 57% clean sheet rate. Deportivo Pasto, away from home, concedes an average of 2.0 goals and has a 40% loss rate. Furthermore, they trail at the break in a staggering 60% of their matches, which supports the scenario of the hosts leading at HT. Additionally, Fortaleza concedes very few goals in the first half (0.14 on average; 86% first-half clean sheets), while Pasto concedes an average of 1.0 goal in the opening period. On the other hand, the form from the last 5 matches favors Pasto (2.0 PPG vs 0.8), which is why I am bolstering the options with a draw or an away lead at HT. Nonetheless, I still rate 1/1 (Home Win/Home Win) as the highest probability. In summary, the data on Fortaleza's defense and Pasto's first-half frailties indicate the hosts' dominance from the outset and maintaining it until the final whistle.
View first-half and second-half statisticsHalf-by-half
Match statistics
Pre-match profile— what do the season numbers say?
This is a team profile based on season data and form. Match-flow statistics are shown only after the fixture is played.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Attack and defence comparison for both teams in the current season.
Shooting quality
| Fortaleza CEIF | Deportivo Pasto | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 30% | 31% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.10 | 0.11 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.28 | 0.36 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five matches and season record, overall and split by home and away matches.
Deportivo Pasto is 150% better for: last-5 form.
0.8 pts / match - Fortaleza CEIF · 2 pts / match - Deportivo Pasto
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
Deportivo Pasto is 39% better for: goals scored per match.
1.08 goals / match - Fortaleza CEIF · 1.5 goals / match - Deportivo Pasto
Deportivo Pasto is 28% better for: goals conceded per match.
1.5 goals / match - Fortaleza CEIF · 1.17 goals / match - Deportivo Pasto
Fortaleza CEIF scores in 83% of matches (10 of 12 matches), while Deportivo Pasto keeps a clean sheet in 42% (5 of 12 matches).
Deportivo Pasto scores in 83% of matches (10 of 12 matches), while Fortaleza CEIF keeps a clean sheet in 17% (2 of 12 matches).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away matches in the current season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often both teams' matches have goals on both sides, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these matches cross the goal lines?
How often matches involving these teams clear goal thresholds, in the full match and in each half.
Full match - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under - Fortaleza CEIF
Over / Under - Deportivo Pasto
1st half
2nd half
Match halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
Deportivo Pasto is 216% better for: first-half form (half-time points).
0.5 pts / match - Fortaleza CEIF · 1.58 pts / match - Deportivo Pasto
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
Fortaleza CEIF - second-half results
Concedes 0.2 more goals per match after half-time - defensive level drops in the second half.
Deportivo Pasto - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 42% of matches and wins 58%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Concedes 0.2 more goals per match after half-time - defensive level drops in the second half.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 0.40 | 1.40 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.2 | 1.0 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.8 | 1.2 |
| Average goals in match | 1.0 | 2.2 |
| 1 goal | 80% | 100% |
| 2 goals | 20% | 60% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 40% |
| Clean sheet | 20% | 20% |
| No goal | 80% | 20% |
| Goal difference | -3 | -1 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.80 | 1.80 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.8 | 1.4 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.6 | 1.0 |
| Average goals in match | 1.4 | 2.4 |
| 1 goal | 100% | 80% |
| 2 goals | 40% | 60% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 60% |
| Clean sheet | 60% | 40% |
| No goal | 40% | 20% |
| Goal difference | +1 | +2 |
* Colours in tables show event frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate, red is rare. It is frequency, not a team rating.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
Match phases in which both teams most often score and concede.
Most dangerous in minutes 76-90 (7 goals). Concedes most in 46-60 (5). Late-goal balance (76-90): +4 - wins late phases.
Most dangerous in minutes 76-90 (7 goals). Concedes most in 16-30 (3). Late-goal balance (76-90): +4 - wins late phases.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends based on completed matches from the current season.
Match profile
Fortaleza CEIF
Deportivo Pasto
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range are calculated from public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical match profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed matches from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (Categoria Primera A).
Teams vs league
| Fortaleza CEIF | Liga | Deportivo Pasto | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals in match | • 2.58 | 2.56 | ▲ 2.67 |
| Both teams scored | ▲ 75% | 56% | ▼ 50% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | ▼ 42% | 49% | • 50% |
| Clean sheets | ▼ 17% | 26% | ▲ 42% |
| Goal before half-time | ▼ 67% | 71% | ▲ 75% |
| Goal after half-time | ▲ 92% | 80% | ▼ 75% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Lineups and player events
Verified starters, substitutes and recorded player events for this match.
Home team
Starting lineup
Substitutes
Away team
Starting lineup
Substitutes
Match timeline
Goals, cards and substitutions arranged in chronological order.
Referee and managers
Open their season profiles to compare match records, goals and disciplinary trends.
Referee context
See how often this referee shows cards, awards penalties and how their matches tend to finish.
Head-to-head
Recent meetings (2): Fortaleza CEIF 1 - 0 - 1 Deportivo Pasto. Average goals 1.50, both teams scored in 0% matches.
FAQ
What was the result of Fortaleza CEIF vs Deportivo Pasto?
The Categoria Primera A match finished Fortaleza CEIF 1:2 Deportivo Pasto. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What is the head-to-head record between Fortaleza CEIF and Deportivo Pasto?
In the last 2 head-to-head matches Fortaleza CEIF won 1, Deportivo Pasto won 1 and 0 ended level. These games averaged 1.50 goals, with both teams scoring in 0% of them.
What do the goal statistics show before Fortaleza CEIF vs Deportivo Pasto?
Fortaleza CEIF score 1.08 goals per game on average and Deportivo Pasto 1.50. The Categoria Primera A average is 2.56 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 49% of games. Both teams score in 75% of Fortaleza CEIF's matches and 50% of Deportivo Pasto's.
What form are Fortaleza CEIF and Deportivo Pasto in?
Over the last 5 games Fortaleza CEIF have a 1-1-3 record (0.80 points per game) and Deportivo Pasto 3-1-1 (2.00 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for Fortaleza CEIF vs Deportivo Pasto?
Here you can check the pre-match numbers for Fortaleza CEIF vs Deportivo Pasto: form, H2H, goals and Over/Under. The pick itself, value and reasoning are published in the NoFluffPicks app.