Fortaleza vs Avaí: match statistics

Fortaleza are highly reliable at home: they win 67% of their matches, average 1.67 goals scored, and lose just 8% of games on their own ground. The hosts also create significantly higher-quality chances, as reflected by an average xG of 1.87 compared with just 1.07 for Avaí away from home. Avaí concede an average of 1.50 goals on the road, allow opponents an xG of 1.83, and have lost 58% of such matches, while Fortaleza concede only 0.83 goals per home game. However, Fortaleza’s last five matches have produced as many as 4 draws and just 5 goals scored, so the visitors—having won 3 of their last 5 league games—may be able to keep the margin of defeat down. The hosts’ advantage in chance creation and defensive solidity points to a Fortaleza win, with 1:0 or 2:0 the most likely scores.

Fortaleza recorded BTTS in only 38% of its matches this season, well below the league average of 47%, while failing to score in 38% of games. The hosts kept a clean sheet in 38% of their appearances, whereas Avaí score just 1.08 goals per match on average and register 2.83 shots on target compared with Fortaleza’s 4.15. Both teams’ recent form has been defensively solid: Fortaleza conceded 3 goals in 5 matches, while Avaí conceded 4, averaging 0.6 and 0.8 per game respectively. Avaí does have BTTS in 58% of its matches this season, but its average seasonal xG is only 1.07, which, combined with the hosts’ strong defense, limits the likelihood of an away goal. A BTTS scenario is not ruled out by both teams’ elevated recent xG figures of 1.61 and 1.70, respectively, but it is more likely that at least one side will fail to score.

Fortaleza scores an average of 1.08 goals per match, while Avaí also averages 1.08, indicating moderate scoring potential for both sides. The hosts have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their matches, while conceding just 3 goals in their last five games, or 0.6 per match. Fortaleza has not recorded a game with at least three goals in its last five rounds, and only 8% of its matches throughout the season have gone Over 3.5 goals. For Avaí, Over 3.5 occurred in 25% of matches, but the league average is only 2.28 goals, making a four-goal outcome unlikely. The strongest signal points to Under 3.5, supported by a projected total of 2.25 goals and season-long rates below this line of 92% for Fortaleza and 75% for Avaí.

The strongest scenario is a draw at half-time followed by a Fortaleza win, as the hosts were level after 45 minutes in 46% of their matches, while Avaí recorded a half-time draw in 58%. The first halves are expected to be cautious: Fortaleza score an average of 0.38 goals and concede 0.31, whereas Avaí score just 0.17 goals per match and have not led at the break on any occasion. After the interval, the hosts’ advantage should increase, as they create more high-quality chances (xG of 1.46 versus 1.07) and average 4.15 shots on target, compared with Avaí’s 2.83. Avaí have a weak underlying away record, losing 58% of their matches and conceding an average of 1.50 goals, while Fortaleza keep a clean sheet in 38% of their games. The visitors’ recent form is better, with 3 wins in their last 5 matches, but they were level at half-time in 80% of those outings, which still strengthens the X/1 option.