Fortaleza vs Operário PR: match statistics

Fortaleza boasts a very strong home profile: they win 73% of their matches, score an average of 1.73 goals, and concede just 0.82 goals per game. The hosts also create significantly better chances, as reflected by an average xG of 1.78 compared with Operário PR’s 1.22 in away matches. Operário are in very poor current form, having failed to win any of their last five matches, scoring 3 goals and conceding 9. Away from home, the visitors lose 45% of their matches, allow opponents an xG of 1.65, and keep a clean sheet in just 27% of games. Fortaleza remain unbeaten in their last five outings, with a record of 2 wins and 3 draws and only 4 goals conceded, so they should be able to capitalise on their superior quality and home advantage.

The seasonal BTTS figures are similar, standing at 54% for Fortaleza and 55% for Operário, while Brazil’s Serie B records this outcome in only 48% of matches. Operário have scored just 3 goals in their last five games, averaging 0.6 per match, while Fortaleza have kept a clean sheet in 46% of their league fixtures. The hosts are clearly stronger in chance creation, averaging 16.69 shots and 5.0 shots on target compared with the visitors’ 11.64 and 3.64, which supports a scenario in which they are the more likely side to score. Although the last five matches involving both teams produced a BTTS rate of 60%, Operário’s poor current finishing and the league average of just 2.28 goals per match provide slightly stronger support for BTTS - No, meaning that at least one team is expected not to score.

Fortaleza generate an average of 1.69 xG per match, while Operário PR allow 1.65 xG, which clearly favors the home side and points to an expected output of around 1.55 goals. The visitors have scored only 0.6 goals per game recently, while Fortaleza have conceded just 0.8 goals across their last five matches, keeping Operário PR’s expected tally limited to 0.85 goals. Although Operário PR matches have gone Over 2.5 goals in 73% of their games this season, neither team averages even 1.4 goals per match, and Brazil’s Serie B records only 2.28 goals per game on average. The strongest signal is for Under 3.5: 77% of Fortaleza’s matches and 82% of Operário PR’s games have finished below this line, with a projected total of 2.40 goals.

The most likely HT/FT outcome is a draw at half-time followed by a Fortaleza win, as the hosts were level at the break in 62% of their matches, compared with 55% for Operário PR. Fortaleza have been very solid defensively before half-time, conceding an average of just 0.38 goals and keeping a clean sheet in 69% of matches during this period. After the break, the hosts’ advantage should increase: their season xG stands at 1.69 versus 1.22 for the visitors, while they also average 16.69 shots per match compared with Operário’s 11.64. The last five matches clearly strengthen this scenario: Fortaleza collected 9 points and remained unbeaten, whereas Operário earned just 1 point, lost four times and conceded an average of 1.8 goals. The visitors scored only 0.6 goals per match during this period, so a draw maintained until half-time should more often turn into a final home win than an Operário success.