Fortuna Köln vs Fortuna Düsseldorf: match statistics

Fortuna Köln have a clearly superior results trend: they have collected 8 points from their last five matches, recording 2 wins and 2 draws, while Fortuna Düsseldorf have lost 4 of their last 5 games and earned just 3 points. The hosts create significantly more chances at home, averaging 22 shots and an xG of 2.11, compared with just 10 shots and an xG of 1.20 for the visitors away from home. Köln’s defence restricts opponents to an xG of 0.86 and concedes an average of 1 goal at home, whereas Düsseldorf concede 2 goals and as much as 2.11 xG per away match. Both teams average 1 goal in their respective conditions, but the visitors have not won a single away match and have lost every game played on the road so far. The hosts’ advantage in chance-creation quality, combined with their significantly more stable form, points to a Fortuna Köln victory.

The signal for both sides to score is reinforced by their current form: BTTS occurred in 80% of Fortuna Köln’s last 5 matches and in 60% of Fortuna Düsseldorf’s. During this period, the hosts scored an average of 1.4 goals and conceded 1.2, while the visitors scored 1.0 goal but allowed their opponents as many as 2.4 goals per match. Düsseldorf have not kept a clean sheet once this season, conceding an average of 2.0 goals, with an opposition xG of 2.11, which clearly supports the hosts finding the net. Köln have recorded a clean sheet in 50% of their matches and average only 0.5 goals scored per game this season, but their latest opposition xG of 1.59 and Düsseldorf’s average of 4 shots on target per match increase the visitors’ chances of scoring. The overall case is moderately strong; however, the visitors’ vulnerable defence and Köln’s improved attacking form support the BTTS - Yes scenario.

Fortuna Köln create chances worth an average of 1.49 xG at home, while Düsseldorf allow opponents as much as 2.11 xG away from home, clearly strengthening the outlook for a home goal. In their last five matches, Köln averaged 1.4 goals scored, whereas Düsseldorf conceded as many as 2.4 goals per game. Both teams recorded over 2.5 goals in 60% of their last five appearances, while the league average of 3.6 goals and 67% of matches finishing above 2.5 indicate an offensive environment. The hosts kept a clean sheet in 50% of their matches so far, making higher lines less certain, but Köln’s advantage in chance quality and the visitors’ weak defense make Over 1.5 the strongest pick.

A draw at half-time followed by a Fortuna Köln win is the most likely outcome, as the home side were level after 45 minutes in 3 of their last 5 matches, while Fortuna Düsseldorf were trailing at that stage in 4 of their last 5 games. Neither team averaged even one goal before the break in their last five appearances, which limits the likelihood of either side establishing a clear advantage from the outset. After the interval, Köln score an average of 1.0 goals and concede just 0.4, whereas Düsseldorf also score 1.0 but allow opponents 1.4 goals on average. The hosts’ advantage is also evident over the broader recent period: they score 1.4 goals per match and concede 1.2, while the visitors concede as many as 2.4 goals and score just 1.0. In addition, Köln’s xG stands at 1.49 compared with Düsseldorf’s 1.20, while the visitors’ defensive xG of 2.11 indicates significant vulnerability to conceding in the latter stages of the match.