Fortuna Köln vs Wehen Wiesbaden: match statistics

Fortuna Köln have a clearly more stable run of form: they have picked up 6 points in their last five matches, while Wehen Wiesbaden have managed just 2 and have not won any of them. The hosts are still unbeaten at home, with both matches ending in draws, conceding just 0.5 goals per game on average and keeping a clean sheet in 50% of their appearances. Away from home, Wehen concede as many as 2.5 goals per match, have kept no clean sheets, and their average xG against stands at 1.66 compared with Fortuna’s 1.22. The visitors create slightly fewer high-quality chances than the hosts, with an average xG of 1.32 versus 1.40, although both teams score 0.5 goals per game outside their primary context. Fortuna’s defensive advantage and Wehen’s poor form point to a narrow but most likely home win.

The signal for BTTS - No is driven primarily by Wehen Wiesbaden’s poor finishing, as they average just 0.5 goals per season and 0.4 goals over their last 5 matches. The visitors failed to score in 50% of their games, while Fortuna Köln kept a clean sheet in 50% of their matches, clearly increasing the likelihood that the visitors will remain scoreless. Fortuna does, however, create more chances, averaging 6.5 shots on target compared with the opponent’s 4.0, and their seasonal xG of 1.82 exceeds Wehen’s 1.32, making the hosts the stronger candidate to score. Both teams have recorded BTTS in 50% of their matches this season, but Wehen’s recent rate is only 40%, compared with the league average of 56%. The more likely scenario is therefore one in which Fortuna exploits the visitors’ weak defence, with Wehen conceding 2.4 goals per match in their last five appearances, while at least one team fails to score.

Fortuna Köln have averaged 1.0 goals scored in their last 5 matches, while Wehen Wiesbaden have averaged just 0.4, limiting the likelihood of a very high-scoring game. However, the hosts should create chances, as they average 14.5 shots and 6.5 shots on target per match, while their opponents have conceded as many as 2.4 goals across their last five fixtures. At the same time, both teams have shown low finishing efficiency: Fortuna convert 3% of their shots, and Wehen 4%, despite the visitors’ xG from their last five matches standing at 1.46. The 3.5 line is also supported by the goal data, as neither team has exceeded 4.5 total goals in a match this season, while the projected total of 2.50 goals remains clearly below four goals. Therefore, the best option is Under 3.5, which also covers the frequent scoreline scenarios of 1:1, 2:0 or 2:1.

The strongest scenario is a draw at half-time followed by a Fortuna Köln win at the final whistle, as the hosts were level at the break in 3 of their last 5 matches, as were Wehen Wiesbaden. Both teams’ first halves tend to be low-scoring: Fortuna have averaged 0.2 goals in the opening 45 minutes across their last five matches, while Wehen have also averaged 0.2, with both teams scoring before half-time in only 20% of matches. After the break, the hosts’ advantage becomes much more pronounced: Fortuna average 0.8 goals scored and 0.4 conceded, whereas Wehen score just 0.2 and concede as many as 1.6 goals. Fortuna are also backed by better current form, averaging 1.2 points per match compared with their opponents’ 0.4, as well as a higher xG of 1.82 versus Wehen’s 1.32. The visitors have failed to win any of their last five matches and concede an average of 2.4 goals, increasing the likelihood that an evenly matched start will turn into a home victory.