Fortuna Sittard vs Cambuur: match statistics

Fortuna Sittard hold a slight edge in terms of form: they have collected 4 points from their last five matches, while Cambuur have managed just 3. The hosts have scored 7 goals during this period, which is 2 more than their opponents, whereas Cambuur remain without a draw and have suffered 4 defeats in their five fixtures. Fortuna’s defence also looks relatively stronger, having conceded 11 goals in their last five matches compared with 15 for the visitors. The start of the season further favours the hosts: Fortuna drew their opening match 2:2, while Cambuur suffered a 0:4 defeat. Both teams have defensive vulnerabilities, so the visitors could find the net, but Fortuna’s greater efficiency in front of goal should see them secure the win.

The strongest argument for BTTS - Yes is the teams’ recent form: both sides recorded this outcome in 80% of their last five matches. Fortuna averaged 1.4 goals scored during this period but conceded 2.2, while Cambuur scored 1.0 goal and allowed their opponents as many as 3.0 goals per match. Their attacking potential is supported by the xG figures: 1.18 for Fortuna and 1.47 for Cambuur, alongside high xG conceded by both defences—1.84 and 1.62, respectively. Cambuur’s particularly weak defence should provide the hosts with opportunities to score, while Fortuna’s 11 goals conceded in five matches give strong grounds to expect them to fail to keep a clean sheet as well. Although the league BTTS average is only 44%, the current form of both teams clearly supports the Goal/Goal outcome much more strongly.

Fortuna Sittard’s last five matches produced an average of 3.6 goals, with the team scoring 1.4 and conceding 2.2. Cambuur’s games were even more open: the team averaged 1.0 goal scored but allowed opponents 3.0, resulting in a total of 4.0 goals per match. The visitors’ attacking potential of 1.47 xG aligns well with Fortuna’s defence, which allows 1.84 xG, while the hosts create 1.18 xG against Cambuur’s 1.62 xG conceded. Over 2.5 goals landed in 80% of Fortuna’s last matches and in 100% of Cambuur’s matches in this sample, but the safest edge lies with Over 1.5 due to the projected total of 3.05 goals.

Fortuna Sittard has the clearer potential to make a strong start: in their last five matches, they led at the break 40% of the time, while Cambuur were trailing at half-time in all five of their appearances. The hosts conceded an average of just 0.4 goals before the break, compared with 2.0 for the visitors, while Cambuur’s first-half goal difference stood at -5. After the final whistle, Fortuna’s advantage is less pronounced, but their recent average of 1.4 goals scored still looks better than Cambuur’s 1.0, while the visitors conceded an average of 3.0 goals per match. Both teams are inconsistent, but Cambuur lost 80% of their recent matches, compared with Fortuna’s 60% defeat rate. Therefore, the most likely scenario remains a Fortuna lead at half-time followed by a home win at full-time (1/1) in the HT/FT market.