Fortuna Sittard vs NAC Breda: match statistics
Fortuna Sittard vs NAC Breda: form, goals and key statistics
Key match information
Fortuna Sittard played NAC Breda in Eredivisie (Netherlands). The match was played on 12 April 2026. Final score: 1:1.
Current form
Fortuna Sittard: 2-0-3, 1.20 points/match. NAC Breda: 0-2-3, 0.40 points/match.
Goal statistics
Fortuna Sittard scores 1.48 and concedes 1.86 goals per match. NAC Breda scores 1.00 and concedes 1.72. League average: 3.18 goals.
BTTS / Over / Under
BTTS: Fortuna Sittard 76%, NAC Breda 48%. Over 2.5: Fortuna Sittard 69%, NAC Breda 55%. League level: BTTS 62%, Over 2.5 62%.
xG, shots and style
NAC Breda has higher xG: 1.48 vs 1.40. Fortuna Sittard: 12.9 shots per match, NAC Breda: 13.8.
Match halves
Fortuna Sittard: half-time lead 31%, second-half goals 0.69. NAC Breda: half-time lead 21%, second-half goals 0.55.
Goals by minute
Fortuna Sittard: 31-45+ (10 goals). NAC Breda: 31-45+ (8 goals). This is historical distribution, not a predicted goal minute.
League context
Eredivisie: 3.18 goals per match, BTTS 62%, Over 2.5 62%.
Head-to-head
Before this fixture, 1 previous H2H matches were available: 0-0-1. Average goals 3.00, BTTS 100%.
Archived pre-match analysis
This analysis was prepared before kick-off. The conclusions use only information available before the match and do not include the final result or post-match statistics.
General match analysis
Fortuna Sittard holds a clear numerical and table advantage: they have scored 43 goals this season versus NAC Breda's 29, and at home average 1.64 goals per match compared to NAC’s 0.79 on the road. Fortuna generates an average xG of 1.6 at home and records 4.57 on-target shots per match, while NAC has xG 1.4 away and 3.5 on-target shots; additionally, the shot-to-goal conversion rate is 11% for Fortuna versus 6% for NAC, indicating greater efficiency from the hosts. In the last 5 matches Fortuna’s record is 2-0-3, scoring 7 and conceding 11 (average 1.2 points), whereas NAC has not won in their last 5 (0-2-3), scoring 4 and conceding 14, with an average of 0.4 points. Defensively the visitors perform worse away — they concede 2.07 goals per match versus 1.71 conceded by Fortuna at home, and NAC have failed to score in 50% of away games, while the hosts have 0% home matches without a goal. Considering the higher number of goals (43 vs 29), better efficiency (11% vs 6%) and higher home win rate (43% versus NAC’s 7% away wins), the prediction favors a Fortuna victory.
View the statistical overviewBTTS - will both teams score?
I back BTTS - Yes because both teams regularly concede: Fortuna has conceded 54 goals this season (1.4 per game) and NAC 50 (2.07 per game), with clean sheets of only 20% and 14% respectively. Fortuna have scored 43 goals this season (1.2 avg) with an xG of 1.55 and produce 14.2 shots with 4.53 on target, increasing the hosts' likelihood to score. NAC have 29 goals season-to-date (0.79 avg) and a 6% conversion rate, but their xG of 1.4 (1.52 xG in the last 5 matches) shows they create chances that, against Fortuna’s weak defense, can translate into an away goal. Season BTTS rates are 53% for Fortuna and 43% for NAC, while the league overall has a BTTS level of 63% and an average goals of 3.19, so league conditions also favor both teams scoring. Based on this I assess BTTS 'Yes' probability at 70% vs 30% 'No' and recommend choosing "yes" as the strongest signal from the data.
View BTTS statisticsOver/Under - goals analysis
xG and defensive analysis shows: xG_for Fortuna 1.55 vs xG_against visitors 1.51 and xG_for NAC 1.40 vs xG_against Fortuna 1.41, yielding projected ~1.53 goals for Fortuna and ~1.40 for NAC, total 2.93 goals. This season Fortuna’s matches exceeded 1.5 goals in 60% of cases, NAC in 71%, and in the last 5 fixtures both teams had 80% of matches over 2.5 goals, increasing propensity for more scoring. Shot metrics (averages 14.2 and 13.36 shots, 4.53 and 3.5 shots on target) and higher efficiency for Fortuna (8% conversion vs 6% NAC) indicate realistic scoring opportunities for both sides. From a Poisson distribution with mean 2.93 goals we get ~79% chance for Over 1.5, 56% for Over 2.5 and 33% for Over 3.5, therefore the strongest data signal is Over 1.5. Additionally, clean sheets are rare (20% for Fortuna and 14% for NAC) while BTTS stands at 53% and 43%, further supporting the Over 1.5 selection.
View Over/Under statisticsHT/FT - half-time and full-time scenario
The most likely scenario is a draw at half-time and a Fortuna Sittard victory in regular time (X/1). The home side score on average 0.53 goals in the first half versus 0.36 for NAC and have been level at the break in 40% of their matches (NAC were level at half-time in 21%), which increases the chance of a draw after 45 minutes. After the break Fortuna display better offensive metrics: xG 1.55 compared to 1.4 for the visitors and a higher shot conversion rate of 8% versus 6%, while Fortuna’s season win rate is 27% against just 7% for NAC, favouring a final victory for the hosts. In the last five matches Fortuna won 40% of games, whereas NAC recorded no wins (0%), and the visitors concede on average 2.07 goals per game, limiting their prospects for a turnaround. Therefore I assign a 34% probability to the X/1 scenario, 22% to 1/1 and 18% to X/X, and estimate the total probability of an away win at around 14%.
View first-half and second-half statisticsHalf-by-half
Match statistics
Pre-match profile— what do the season numbers say?
This is a team profile based on season data and form. Match-flow statistics are shown only after the fixture is played.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Attack and defence comparison for both teams in the current season.
Shooting quality
| Fortuna Sittard | NAC Breda | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 36% | 29% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.11 | 0.11 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.32 | 0.25 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five matches and season record, overall and split by home and away matches.
Fortuna Sittard is 200% better for: last-5 form.
1.2 pts / match - Fortuna Sittard · 0.4 pts / match - NAC Breda
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
Fortuna Sittard is 48% better for: goals scored per match.
1.48 goals / match - Fortuna Sittard · 1 goals / match - NAC Breda
NAC Breda is 8% better for: goals conceded per match.
1.86 goals / match - Fortuna Sittard · 1.72 goals / match - NAC Breda
Fortuna Sittard scores in 86% of matches (25 of 29 matches), while NAC Breda keeps a clean sheet in 17% (5 of 29 matches).
NAC Breda scores in 59% of matches (17 of 29 matches), while Fortuna Sittard keeps a clean sheet in 10% (3 of 29 matches).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away matches in the current season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often both teams' matches have goals on both sides, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these matches cross the goal lines?
How often matches involving these teams clear goal thresholds, in the full match and in each half.
Full match - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under - Fortuna Sittard
Over / Under - NAC Breda
1st half
2nd half
Match halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
Fortuna Sittard is 30% better for: first-half form (half-time points).
1.21 pts / match - Fortuna Sittard · 0.93 pts / match - NAC Breda
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
Fortuna Sittard - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 31% of matches and wins 34%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Defence stays stable across the full match.
NAC Breda - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 21% of matches and wins 17%. Usually protects the lead until full-time.
Defence stays stable across the full match.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.40 | 0.80 |
| Goals scored / match | 1.0 | 0.4 |
| Goals conceded / match | 1.0 | 1.2 |
| Average goals in match | 2.0 | 1.6 |
| 1 goal | 100% | 80% |
| 2 goals | 80% | 60% |
| 3 goals | 20% | 20% |
| Clean sheet | 40% | 20% |
| No goal | 20% | 80% |
| Goal difference | 0 | -4 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 0.80 | 0.80 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| Goals conceded / match | 1.6 | 1.2 |
| Average goals in match | 2.2 | 1.4 |
| 1 goal | 80% | 80% |
| 2 goals | 60% | 40% |
| 3 goals | 40% | 20% |
| Clean sheet | 20% | 40% |
| No goal | 80% | 80% |
| Goal difference | -5 | -5 |
* Colours in tables show event frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate, red is rare. It is frequency, not a team rating.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
Match phases in which both teams most often score and concede.
Most dangerous in minutes 31-45 (10 goals). Concedes most in 0-15 (11). Late-goal balance (76-90): -1 - late phases are a weakness.
Most dangerous in minutes 31-45 (8 goals). Concedes most in 76-90 (13). Late-goal balance (76-90): -5 - late phases are a weakness.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends based on completed matches from the current season.
Match profile
Fortuna Sittard
NAC Breda
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range are calculated from public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical match profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed matches from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (Eredivisie).
Teams vs league
| Fortuna Sittard | Liga | NAC Breda | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals in match | ▲ 3.34 | 3.18 | ▼ 2.72 |
| Both teams scored | ▲ 76% | 62% | ▼ 48% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | ▲ 69% | 62% | ▼ 55% |
| Clean sheets | ▼ 10% | 20% | ▼ 17% |
| Goal before half-time | ▲ 97% | 82% | ▼ 76% |
| Goal after half-time | ▼ 76% | 84% | ▼ 76% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Lineups and player events
Verified starters, substitutes and recorded player events for this match.
Home team
Starting lineup
Substitutes
Away team
Starting lineup
Match timeline
Goals, cards and substitutions arranged in chronological order.
Referee and managers
Open their season profiles to compare match records, goals and disciplinary trends.
Referee context
See how often this referee shows cards, awards penalties and how their matches tend to finish.
Head-to-head
Previous meeting: Fortuna Sittard 0 - 0 - 1 NAC Breda. Average goals 3.00, both teams scored in 100% matches.
FAQ
What was the result of Fortuna Sittard vs NAC Breda?
The Eredivisie match finished Fortuna Sittard 1:1 NAC Breda. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What do the goal statistics show before Fortuna Sittard vs NAC Breda?
Fortuna Sittard score 1.48 goals per game on average and NAC Breda 1.00. The Eredivisie average is 3.18 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 62% of games. Both teams score in 76% of Fortuna Sittard's matches and 48% of NAC Breda's.
What form are Fortuna Sittard and NAC Breda in?
Over the last 5 games Fortuna Sittard have a 2-0-3 record (1.20 points per game) and NAC Breda 0-2-3 (0.40 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for Fortuna Sittard vs NAC Breda?
Here you can check the pre-match numbers for Fortuna Sittard vs NAC Breda: form, H2H, goals and Over/Under. The pick itself, value and reasoning are published in the NoFluffPicks app.