Fortuna Sittard vs PEC Zwolle: match statistics

Fortuna Sittard holds a clear statistical home advantage: they average 1.56 goals per home match with 14.63 shots and 4.31 on target and an average xG of 1.52, while PEC Zwolle on the road records 1.31 goals, 9.44 shots and xG 1.08. Fortuna’s key edge stems from the visitors’ defensive vulnerability — PEC concedes 2.94 goals on average away (xG against 2.16) versus 1.69 conceded by Fortuna at home (xG against 1.66). A warning sign is form: Fortuna has only 0.2 points per game in their last five (0 wins, 1 draw, 4 losses), while PEC has 1.4 points per game in that period (2 wins, 1 draw, 2 losses). PEC’s away metrics are still poor — just 6% away wins and 6% clean sheets, whereas Fortuna win 38% of home games and keep 19% clean sheets, reinforcing the home advantage. Consequently I expect a Fortuna win: 60% chance home victory, 20% draw and 20% PEC win.

Statistical analysis strongly supports BTTS - Yes: PEC Zwolle has a season BTTS rate of 88% and only 6% clean sheets, meaning both teams scored in 88% of their matches and PEC rarely keep a clean sheet. Fortuna Sittard has a season BTTS of 50%, but BTTS in the last 5 matches is 80%, so the hosts have recently been conceding mutual goals frequently. Both teams average 1.31 goals scored this season, while PEC concedes an average of 2.94 goals per match this season (last 5: 2.8) and Fortuna concedes 1.19 (last 5: 1.8), which further increases the likelihood of goals at both ends. xG confirms defensive pressure: Fortuna xG_for 1.17 vs xG_against 1.68, PEC xG_for 1.08 vs xG_against 2.16, and average shots 10.13 vs 9.44 with SOT 3.69 vs 3.56 show both teams create chances. Considering PEC’s 88% BTTS, Fortuna’s 80% BTTS in the last 5, the league average BTTS of 63% and the high share of matches over 2.5 goals (Fortuna 50%, PEC 75%), I assess BTTS probability at 78% (yes) vs 22% (no) and recommend a "yes" pick.

Both teams average 1.31 goals per game; xG is 1.17 for Fortuna and 1.08 for PEC, while xG against (average xG conceded by opponents) is 1.68 for Fortuna and 2.16 for PEC, which yields estimated expected goals of 1.67 (Fortuna) and 1.38 (PEC), total ≈3.05. Seasonal shares confirm a high-scoring tendency: Over 1.5 occurred in 69% of Fortuna’s matches and 100% of PEC’s, Over 2.5 in 50% and 75% of games, and Over 3.5 in 31% and 56% of matches. PEC records BTTS in 88% of games, Fortuna in 50%, and both teams have conceded many goals (Fortuna 59, PEC 66), which increases the likelihood of goals from both sides and supports a combined xG above 3. Based on this I estimate probability of Over 1.5 at ~90% (Under 10%), Over 2.5 at 68% (Under 32%) and Over 3.5 at 40% (Under 60%); the strongest signal from the data is Over 1.5, therefore I recommend taking the over on the 1.5 line.

Fortuna Sittard is the favorite to lead at the break and to win: the hosts led at half-time in 50% of matches, score on average 0.88 goals by half-time and concede only 0.5, while PEC Zwolle scores 0.56 in the first half and concedes 1.5. Over the full match Fortuna averages 1.75 points per game and wins 50% of matches, whereas PEC averages 0.56 points per game with only a 6% win rate, the visitors conceding on average 2.94 goals per season, indicating weaker defending. The hosts’ xG is 1.17 versus 1.08 for PEC, with an average of 3.69 shots on target to 3.56, so Fortuna’s edge in chance creation is marginal but clear in efficiency and defense, which supports maintaining a lead. Therefore I assign the highest probability to the 1/1 scenario (35%), while alternatives are X/1 (13%) and X/X (14%) given a 38% rate of half-time draws; together these figures justify that the strongest signal is Fortuna leading at half-time and the hosts winning at full-time.