Fortuna Sittard vs Twente: match statistics

Twente head into the match in better form, having won 4 of their last 5 games without losing any, while Fortuna have recorded 3 wins and suffered 2 defeats. The visitors scored 12 goals and conceded 5 over that period, whereas the hosts scored 8 and conceded as many as 11. Away from home, Twente average 2 goals per match with an xG of 1.99, while Fortuna average 1.33 goals at home with an xG of 1.12. The hosts’ defence is a particular concern: they concede an average of 2.67 goals at home, and opponents create chances worth 2.83 xG against them. Although Twente have won only 1 of their 3 away matches so far, their advantage in shots per game on the road — 18.33 compared with Fortuna’s 9.67 at home — points to an away win.

BTTS - Yes has landed in 50% of Fortuna’s home matches and 67% of Twente’s away games, while the rate was 60% for both teams across their last five matches. Fortuna score an average of 2.25 goals at home with an xG of 2.67, while Twente concede an average of 1.33 goals away and have yet to keep a clean sheet. The visitors score an average of 2.00 goals away with an xG of 1.99, and Fortuna have conceded an average of 2.2 goals across their last five matches, strengthening the likelihood of a Twente goal. The risk to the BTTS - Yes pick is Fortuna’s 50% home clean-sheet rate and the fact that Twente failed to score in 33% of their away games; however, both sides’ attacking potential points towards each team scoring. Thus, BTTS - No would win if at least one team fails to score; it does not necessarily mean a 0-0 draw.

Fortuna’s last 5 matches averaged 3.8 goals, while Twente’s averaged 3.4, supporting the case for going over a low goal line. Twente scored an average of 2.4 goals per match during this period and generated an xG of 2.31, while Fortuna conceded an average of 2.2 goals. At home, Fortuna score an average of 2.25 goals and record 8.75 shots on target, so the hosts also have the potential to add a goal. Although Fortuna’s xG stood at just 1.04 over their last 5 matches, Over 1.5 goals landed in 75% of their home matches and 67% of Twente’s away matches. Therefore, Over 1.5 goals is a stronger pick than higher lines, with a forecast of 3.45 total goals.

Fortuna were level at half-time in 3 of their 4 home matches, while Twente were level in 2 of their 3 away matches, making a draw after 45 minutes likely. After the break, Fortuna scored an average of 1.75 goals at home and conceded none, whereas Twente averaged 0.67 goals in the second half away from home. The hosts won all 4 of their home matches, with an average xG of 2.67 compared with Twente’s 1.99 away from home. The visitors’ form is a risk: they have won 4 of their last 5 matches, while Fortuna have won 3 of 5. Even so, frequent half-time draws and Fortuna’s second-half effectiveness on home soil point most strongly to the X/1 HT/FT scenario.