Forward Madison vs Alta: match statistics

Forward Madison are unbeaten in their last five matches, collecting 9 points, while Alta have lost five consecutive games and scored just 2 goals during that span. The hosts win 58% of their home matches, have yet to suffer a defeat on home soil and average 2.50 goals per game, whereas Alta average only 0.92 goals away from home. The quality of chances also favors Forward Madison: the hosts’ average xG stands at 2.08, compared with 1.31 for Alta, who allow opponents an xG of 1.85. Forward Madison’s defense concedes just 0.83 goals per home match, while the visitors allow their opponents an average of 1.77 goals away from home. Alta have failed to score in 46% of their away matches, which, combined with the hosts’ average of 18.58 shots and 6.75 shots on target per game, strongly reinforces the case for a Forward Madison win.

Forward Madison should have a high chance of scoring, as Alta concede an average of 1.77 goals per game over the season and as many as 2.2 in their last five matches, while their clean-sheet rate stands at just 15%. However, the key argument against BTTS - Yes is the visitors’ attacking output: Alta have scored only 2 goals in their last five matches, averaging 0.4 per game, and have lost all five fixtures. During the same period, Forward Madison conceded just 0.8 goals per game and kept a clean sheet in 43% of their matches throughout the season. Although both teams’ season BTTS figures are similar, at 57% and 54%, respectively, Alta’s current form clearly lowers the probability of them finding the net. A BTTS - Yes scenario cannot be ruled out given the visitors’ xG of 1.08 over their last five matches, but a home win with Alta failing to score is more likely. In other words, BTTS - No means that at least one team does not score; it does not automatically imply a 0:0 draw or that neither team will score.

Forward Madison score an average of 1.57 goals at home, while Alta concede as many as 1.77 goals away from home, clearly favoring at least two goals in the match. The hosts are also in strong attacking form from a quality standpoint: their xG over the last 5 matches stands at 1.98, while Alta allowed 2.06 xG during this period and conceded 11 goals. The 1.5 line was covered in 79% of Forward Madison’s matches and 62% of Alta’s, while both teams scored in the second half in 71% and 75% of their respective appearances. The visitors’ weaker attack, having scored only 2 goals in their last 5 matches, limits confidence in higher lines, but should not keep the game below two goals. Therefore, Over 1.5 has the strongest support both from the matchup between the hosts’ attack and Alta’s defense and from the frequency with which this line has landed.

The strongest scenario is a draw at half-time followed by a Forward Madison win at full-time, as the hosts were level at the break in 40% of their last five matches, while Alta were level in as many as 60%. The opening stages could be cautious: during this period, Forward Madison averaged just 0.2 goals before half-time, while Alta averaged 0.4. After the interval, the hosts’ advantage increases significantly, as they have averaged 1.2 goals in the second half across their last five matches, whereas Alta have failed to score in that period. Full-match form also strongly favours the hosts: they have recently averaged 1.4 goals scored and 0.8 conceded, while the visitors have scored 0.4 and allowed opponents to score 2.2. Alta have lost all of their last five matches, whereas Forward Madison remain unbeaten in five games, recording 2 wins and 3 draws.