Forward Madison vs NY Cosmos: match statistics
Forward Madison vs NY Cosmos: form, goals and key statistics
Key match information
Forward Madison played NY Cosmos in USL League One (United States). The match was played on 21 June 2026. Final score: 3:1.
Current form
Forward Madison: 2-1-2, 1.40 points/match. NY Cosmos: 0-0-5, 0.00 points/match.
Goal statistics
Forward Madison scores 1.64 and concedes 1.18 goals per match. NY Cosmos scores 1.36 and concedes 2.45. League average: 2.89 goals.
BTTS / Over / Under
BTTS: Forward Madison 55%, NY Cosmos 82%. Over 2.5: Forward Madison 55%, NY Cosmos 91%. League level: BTTS 57%, Over 2.5 58%.
xG, shots and style
NY Cosmos has higher xG: 1.48 vs 1.45. Forward Madison: 12.4 shots per match, NY Cosmos: 12.4.
Match halves
Forward Madison: half-time lead 55%, second-half goals 0.64. NY Cosmos: half-time lead 9%, second-half goals 1.00.
Goals by minute
Forward Madison: 16-30 (6 goals). NY Cosmos: 46-60 (6 goals). This is historical distribution, not a predicted goal minute.
League context
USL League One: 2.89 goals per match, BTTS 57%, Over 2.5 58%.
Head-to-head
Before this fixture, 1 previous H2H matches were available: 0-1-0. Average goals 4.00, BTTS 100%.
Archived pre-match analysis
This analysis was prepared before kick-off. The conclusions use only information available before the match and do not include the final result or post-match statistics.
General match analysis
I predict a home win. Forward Madison score an average of 3.0 goals per home match (18 goals this season) and have a 67% home win rate, while NY Cosmos average 1.0 goal away and have a 0% win rate on the road. xG supports the home advantage: Forward Madison’s home xG is 2.07 with xG against 0.98, whereas Cosmos have xG for 1.36 and xG against 1.75, indicating the hosts create better chances and concede fewer. Chance quality and efficiency favor the hosts — 7.67 on-target shots and 19.67 shots per home game with a 15% conversion rate versus 3.33 on-target, 12.17 shots and 8% conversion for the visitors; additionally Cosmos have conceded 15 goals in their last 5 matches. Considering form (Forward Madison 1.4 pts/game in last 5, Cosmos 0 pts) and the fact guests lose 100% of away games and have a -12 away goal difference, I assign an 80% probability to a home win, 12% to a draw and 8% to an away win.
View the statistical overviewBTTS - will both teams score?
Both teams give a strong signal for BTTS: Forward Madison has a seasonal BTTS rate of 80%, and NY Cosmos 83%, both well above the league average of 56%. NY Cosmos concede on average 3.0 goals per match season-to-date, while Forward Madison score 1.8 goals; simultaneously Madison concede 1.8 goals and Cosmos score 1.0 goals, indicating statistically a high likelihood of goals from both sides. Cosmos have no clean sheets this season (0%), and Madison keep a clean sheet in 20% of matches, which further increases the probability of goals for both teams. Chance quality metrics support this conclusion: xG is 1.62 for Madison and 1.36 for Cosmos, xG against 1.68 and 1.75 and average shots on target 5.0 vs 3.33; additionally 80% of Madison matches and 100% of Cosmos matches are over 2.5 goals. Although Madison had BTTS in only 40% of their last 5 matches and Cosmos 80% in their last 5, the combined seasonal rates (80%/83%), the high number of goals conceded by Cosmos and their lack of clean sheets lead me to forecast BTTS at 85% and No BTTS at 15%, recommended stake: "yes".
View BTTS statisticsOver/Under - goals analysis
Both teams have season Over 1.5 at 100% (Forward Madison and NY Cosmos), which is the strongest signal for Over 1.5; additionally both sides have scored at least one goal in 80% and 83% of matches. Combining xG: hosts xG_for 1.62 and visitors xG_against 1.75 give the hosts ~1.69 xG, and visitors xG_for 1.36 and hosts xG_against 1.68 give the visitors ~1.52 xG, totaling 3.21 expected goals. From a Poisson distribution with a total of 3.21 there is ~62% chance for Over 2.5 and ~40% for Over 3.5, while seasonal Over 2.5 rates (80%/100%) and Over 3.5 (60%/83%) suggest higher empirical probabilities. Therefore, combining the xG model and seasonal data I assess Over 1.5 as the strongest line (~92%), Over 2.5 at ~76% and Over 3.5 at ~56% — I recommend backing Over 1.5 as the primary pick.
View Over/Under statisticsHT/FT - half-time and full-time scenario
The most likely scenario is the home side leading at the break and winning by full-time (1/1). NY Cosmos have yet to win a match this season (0 wins) and have lost all fixtures (100% defeats), conceding an average of 3.0 goals per game, while Forward Madison score an average of 1.8 goals and have an xG of 1.62 versus the visitors’ 1.36. In the last five matches the hosts have led at the break in 60% of cases and averaged 0.8 goals by halftime, whereas the visitors averaged 0.0 goals before the interval. Additionally, Forward Madison register an average of 5.0 shots on target versus Cosmos’ 3.33 and have a shot conversion rate of 14% compared to the visitors’ 8%, which increases the likelihood of the home side maintaining their lead and closing out the match as winners.
View first-half and second-half statisticsHalf-by-half
Match statistics
Pre-match profile— what do the season numbers say?
This is a team profile based on season data and form. Match-flow statistics are shown only after the fixture is played.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Attack and defence comparison for both teams in the current season.
Shooting quality
| Forward Madison | NY Cosmos | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 38% | 33% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.12 | 0.12 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.35 | 0.33 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five matches and season record, overall and split by home and away matches.
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
Forward Madison is 21% better for: goals scored per match.
1.64 goals / match - Forward Madison · 1.36 goals / match - NY Cosmos
Forward Madison is 108% better for: goals conceded per match.
1.18 goals / match - Forward Madison · 2.45 goals / match - NY Cosmos
Forward Madison scores in 73% of matches (8 of 11 matches), while NY Cosmos keeps a clean sheet in 9% (1 of 11 matches).
NY Cosmos scores in 91% of matches (10 of 11 matches), while Forward Madison keeps a clean sheet in 18% (2 of 11 matches).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away matches in the current season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often both teams' matches have goals on both sides, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these matches cross the goal lines?
How often matches involving these teams clear goal thresholds, in the full match and in each half.
Full match - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under - Forward Madison
Over / Under - NY Cosmos
1st half
2nd half
Match halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
Forward Madison is 149% better for: first-half form (half-time points).
1.82 pts / match - Forward Madison · 0.73 pts / match - NY Cosmos
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
Forward Madison - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 55% of matches and wins 45%. Usually protects the lead until full-time.
Defence stays stable across the full match.
NY Cosmos - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 9% of matches and wins 18%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Defence stays stable across the full match.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.80 | 1.40 |
| Goals scored / match | 1.0 | 1.0 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.6 | 0.6 |
| Average goals in match | 1.6 | 1.6 |
| 1 goal | 100% | 80% |
| 2 goals | 40% | 20% |
| 3 goals | 20% | 20% |
| Clean sheet | 60% | 40% |
| No goal | 20% | 60% |
| Goal difference | +2 | +2 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 0.40 | 0.40 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.0 | 0.8 |
| Goals conceded / match | 1.2 | 1.6 |
| Average goals in match | 1.2 | 2.4 |
| 1 goal | 60% | 100% |
| 2 goals | 60% | 100% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 40% |
| Clean sheet | 40% | 0% |
| No goal | 100% | 20% |
| Goal difference | -6 | -4 |
* Colours in tables show event frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate, red is rare. It is frequency, not a team rating.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
Match phases in which both teams most often score and concede.
Most dangerous in minutes 16-30 (6 goals). Concedes most in 16-30 (5). Late-goal balance (76-90): +1 - wins late phases.
Most dangerous in minutes 46-60 (6 goals). Concedes most in 31-45 (6). Late-goal balance (76-90): 0.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends based on completed matches from the current season.
Match profile
Forward Madison
NY Cosmos
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range are calculated from public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical match profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed matches from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (USL League One).
Teams vs league
| Forward Madison | Liga | NY Cosmos | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals in match | • 2.82 | 2.89 | ▲ 3.82 |
| Both teams scored | ▼ 55% | 57% | ▲ 82% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | ▼ 55% | 58% | ▲ 91% |
| Clean sheets | ▼ 18% | 24% | ▼ 9% |
| Goal before half-time | ▲ 91% | 73% | • 73% |
| Goal after half-time | ▼ 64% | 82% | ▲ 100% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Lineups and player events
Verified starters, substitutes and recorded player events for this match.
Home team
Starting lineup
Match timeline
Goals, cards and substitutions arranged in chronological order.
Referee and managers
Open their season profiles to compare match records, goals and disciplinary trends.
Head-to-head
Previous meeting: Forward Madison 0 - 1 - 0 NY Cosmos. Average goals 4.00, both teams scored in 100% matches.
FAQ
What was the result of Forward Madison vs NY Cosmos?
The USL League One match finished Forward Madison 3:1 NY Cosmos. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What do the goal statistics show before Forward Madison vs NY Cosmos?
Forward Madison score 1.64 goals per game on average and NY Cosmos 1.36. The USL League One average is 2.89 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 58% of games. Both teams score in 55% of Forward Madison's matches and 82% of NY Cosmos's.
What form are Forward Madison and NY Cosmos in?
Over the last 5 games Forward Madison have a 2-1-2 record (1.40 points per game) and NY Cosmos 0-0-5 (0.00 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for Forward Madison vs NY Cosmos?
Here you can check the pre-match numbers for Forward Madison vs NY Cosmos: form, H2H, goals and Over/Under. The pick itself, value and reasoning are published in the NoFluffPicks app.