Fratria vs CSKA Sofia II: match statistics

CSKA Sofia II lead the table and remain unbeaten this season, with a record of 3 wins and 1 draw, while Fratria have already suffered one defeat. The visitors are in excellent form: they have won 4 of their last 5 matches, scoring 12 goals in that run and averaging 2.6 points per game, compared with Fratria’s 7 goals and 2 points. Away from home, CSKA Sofia II average 1.67 goals and have never failed to score, while their shot conversion rate stands at 15%, compared with 7% for the hosts. Fratria do, however, have a solid home defence, conceding just 0.33 goals per game and keeping a clean sheet in 67% of their appearances, so the match could be closely contested. The visitors’ edge in current form and finishing efficiency, reinforced by their 4:0 goal record away from home, narrowly tips the balance in favour of a CSKA Sofia II victory.

Although Fratria recorded BTTS in 100% of their home matches so far, the much more recent sample shows just 20% of such games and only 0.6 goals conceded per match across their last five outings. CSKA Sofia II kept a clean sheet in 67% of their away matches, while BTTS occurred in only 33% of their away fixtures—strong evidence that the hosts may fail to score. The visitors are, however, in good attacking form, averaging 2.4 goals in their last five matches with an xG of 1.89. Therefore, the most likely No BTTS scenario is an away win to nil rather than a goalless draw. Fratria are still creating chances worth 1.59 xG over their last five matches, but CSKA’s defence has limited opponents to an average of 0.33 goals away from home. With the league-wide BTTS average at 49%, the combination of the visitors’ solid defence and the hosts’ improvement without the ball gives a slight but clear edge to the scenario in which at least one team fails to score.

In their last five matches, Fratria averaged 1.4 goals scored and conceded just 0.6, while CSKA Sofia II scored as many as 2.4 goals and conceded 0.8. The attacking potential of both sides is also reflected in their average xG: 1.59 for the hosts and 1.89 for the visitors. However, CSKA Sofia II should not completely dominate the match, as their average xG conceded to opponents stands at 1.51, compared with 1.09 for Fratria. In the current competition, the hosts had at least 2 goals in 100% of their matches, while the visitors reached this threshold in 67% of their appearances. The strongest signal is Over 1.5 goals, as the projected total of 2.75 goals provides a clearly greater safety margin than the more evenly balanced 2.5 line.

The strongest scenario is a draw at half-time followed by a CSKA Sofia II win at the final whistle (X/2). The visitors remain unbeaten in their matches to date, winning 67% of them and averaging 2.33 points per game, while Fratria have a 50% win rate and have drawn 50% of their matches. The first halves should be cautious: CSKA were level at the break in 67% of their matches, keeping a clean sheet in 100% of those cases and conceding an average of 0.00 goals. Fratria have scored only 0.6 goals before half-time in their last five matches, while CSKA have managed just 0.2, further strengthening the case for an even opening. After the break, the visitors step up the pace, recently averaging 1.8 goals in the second half, while their full-season defensive record shows just 0.33 goals conceded per match, giving them the edge in the battle for the final three points.