Fratria vs Spartak Pleven: match statistics

Fratria sit 3rd, while Spartak Pleven are only 13th, and the hosts have lost just 1 of their 10 league matches, with a goal record of 14:8. Fratria are unbeaten in their last five matches (2 wins and 3 draws), whereas the visitors have suffered 3 defeats and conceded as many as 12 goals during this period. At home, Fratria win 60% of their matches, concede just 0.6 goals per game and keep a clean sheet in 60% of their fixtures, while Spartak allow opponents an average of 2.6 goals away from home. The hosts also create better chances, as reflected by an average xG of 1.57 compared with 1.06 for the visitors, and they additionally record an average of 5 shots on target per match, compared with Spartak’s 2.6. Their superiority in game organisation, defensive solidity and the quality of chances created clearly points to a Fratria victory.

A scenario in which both teams fail to score is slightly more likely, as both teams have recorded BTTS in only 40% of their matches this season, below the league average of 48%. Fratria should have good opportunities to score: Spartak Pleven concede an average of 2.6 goals per match, while the hosts create 1.47 xG and register 4.0 shots on target per game. The key uncertainty remains the visitors’ attack, which scores an average of just 1.0 goal, generates 1.06 xG, and failed to score in 40% of their matches this season. In Pleven’s last five matches, they still conceded an average of 2.4 goals, but BTTS occurred in only 40% of their games, supporting the possibility that the hosts could win with a clean sheet. Fratria kept a clean sheet in 20% of their matches, so BTTS is not ruled out, but the visitors’ weaker scoring potential shifts the forecast towards “BTTS - No”.

Fratria should create significantly more chances, averaging 1.47 xG and 4.0 shots on target per match, while Spartak Pleven concede as many as 2.6 goals and allow opponents 1.72 xG. In their last five matches, the visitors have conceded 12 goals, or 2.4 per game, while Fratria have scored 1.4 goals per match during this period. The 1.5 line was covered in 60% of Fratria’s matches and in all of Spartak Pleven’s matches so far, providing very strong support for at least two goals. The visitors could also add a goal, as their average xG stands at 1.06, while the hosts’ defence allows an average of 1.53 xG. Over 2.5 has positive indicators, but the greater volatility of this line makes Over 1.5 the safest and strongest choice.

The most likely HT/FT outcome is a draw at half-time followed by a Fratria win, as the hosts have been level at the break in 4 of their last 5 matches, while Spartak Pleven have done so in 3 of 5. Fratria are nevertheless clearly more consistent over the full match: they average 1.2 points at half-time compared with their opponents’ 0.4, and have won 60% of their matches this season, compared with just 20% for Spartak. The hosts also create more chances, recording an xG of 1.47 and 4.0 shots on target per match, while the visitors average an xG of 1.06 and 2.6 shots on target. Spartak’s defensive weakness after the break is crucial: they concede an average of 1.4 goals in second halves, rising to 1.6 over their last five matches, while scoring just 0.6. Fratria average 0.8 goals after half-time and have not lost any of their last five matches, which supports a turnaround in their favour after an even start.