Fredericia vs Aarhus Fremad: match statistics

Fredericia remain unbeaten this season, scoring 8 goals and conceding just 2, while their last five matches have yielded 3 wins and 2 draws. At home, the hosts create a high volume of chances, averaging 29.5 shots, including 12.5 on target, with an xG of as much as 3.39 compared with Aarhus Fremad’s 1.48 away from home. Fredericia’s defensive performance is equally impressive, allowing opponents just 0.69 xG at home and conceding an average of 0.5 goals per match, while the visitors concede an average of 1 goal away from home. Aarhus Fremad also boast a solid run of 3 wins in their last 5 matches, but create significantly fewer chances, recording 14 shots and 3.5 on target per away match. The hosts’ advantage in possession—62% compared with 52%—as well as in the quality of chances created, points to a more likely Fredericia victory.

Seasonal data strongly supports goals at both ends: Fredericia and Aarhus Fremad have a BTTS rate of 100%, and neither team has kept a clean sheet yet. The hosts score an average of 2.0 goals, while the visitors average 1.5, with both teams registering 3.5 shots on target per match. Fredericia have been creating a high volume of chances recently, with an average xG of 2.76 across their last five matches, while Aarhus Fremad allow opponents an xG of 1.39. The main argument against BTTS - Yes is the hosts’ defensive improvement: they have conceded just 0.4 goals per match over their last five games, with BTTS at 40% during that period. Nevertheless, the lack of clean sheets this season and the visitors’ 80% BTTS rate in their last five matches give a slight edge to the “Yes” scenario.

Both teams have exceeded the 1.5-goal line in 100% of their league matches so far, with each side scoring and conceding at least one goal in every game. Fredericia have averaged 2.8 goals and generated 2.76 xG across their last five matches, while Aarhus Fremad have averaged 2.2 goals. The visitors create an average of 1.48 xG per match, while Fredericia’s defence allows opponents 1.56 xG, clearly supporting their chances of scoring. Aarhus Fremad, meanwhile, concede an average of 1.0 goal and allow opponents 1.39 xG, so the hosts should also create enough chances. Over 1.5 is the strongest pick, as the projected total of 2.95 goals and the aligned data from both teams give this option a clear edge.

Aarhus Fremad have a clearer profile for the opening phase of the match: they were leading at the break in 4 of their last 5 games, scoring an average of 1.6 goals before half-time, while Fredericia managed just 0.4 goals during the same period. The visitors also average 14 shots per match compared with the hosts’ 8.5, while their xG stands at 1.48 versus Fredericia’s 1.05, further supporting the scenario of an away advantage in the first half. After the interval, however, the data strongly favours the hosts: across their last five appearances, they have scored an average of 2.4 goals in the second half and have conceded none. Aarhus Fremad scored just 0.6 goals after the break, while Fredericia won the second half in 100% of their last five matches, making the most likely outcome the turnaround 2/1.