Fredericia vs HB Køge: match statistics

HB Køge appears favored based on the last five matches: the visitors scored 7 and conceded 4 (avg. 1.4 scored and 0.8 conceded per match), while Fredericia have 9 scored and 10 conceded (1.8 scored and 2.0 conceded). The visitors average 1.4 points in the last 5 matches, the hosts 1.0 point, and HB Køge’s goal difference in that period is +3 versus Fredericia’s -1. Fredericia have only 1 win, 2 draws and 2 losses in the last 5, whereas HB Køge have 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 losses, indicating the visitors are more efficient at converting opportunities into points. HB Køge’s key advantage is a much better defense – they concede 0.8 goals on average versus 2.0 for the hosts, which reduces Fredericia’s chances despite their higher goals scored.

Fredericia has BTTS in 60% of its last 5 matches (3/5), scoring 9 and conceding 10 — averages 1.8 scored and 2.0 conceded. HB Køge has BTTS in 20% of its last 5 (1/5), with 7 scored and 4 conceded — averages 1.4 scored and 0.8 conceded. Average xG over the last 5 is 1.83 for Fredericia and 1.29 for HB Køge with xG against of 1.5 and 1.29 respectively; this translates to expected goals of approximately 1.56 for Fredericia and 1.40 for HB Køge. With these values the probability Fredericia scores at least once is about 79% and HB Køge about 75%, yielding a combined BTTS around 59–60%. Given Fredericia’s high average goals conceded (2.0) and the moderate xG for both teams I recommend BTTS: YES.

In the last 5 matches Fredericia averaged 1.8 goals scored and 2.0 conceded (9 scored/10 conceded), while HB Køge averaged 1.4 scored and 0.8 conceded (7/4). Total xG for both teams is 1.83 (Fredericia) + 1.29 (HB) = 3.12; averaging with conceded xG (Fredericia xG against 1.5, HB xG against 1.29) yields expected 1.56 goals for the home side and 1.40 for the visitors, ~2.96 combined. A Poisson model with λ=2.96 gives ~79% probability for Over 1.5 goals, ~57% for Over 2.5 and ~34% for Over 3.5; historically Fredericia had Over 2.5 in 60% of their last 5 matches, HB Køge in 40%, which moderately supports the Over 2.5 option. Additionally Fredericia conceded 10 goals in 5 matches while HB Køge scored 7, and BTTS occurred in 60% of Fredericia’s games vs 20% for HB, increasing the likelihood of goals from both sides. The strongest signal is therefore Over 1.5 (highest probability ~79%), with moderate support for Over 2.5 (~57%) and low confidence for Over 3.5 (~34%).

Fredericia averaged 1.4 goals scored before the break and conceded 1.2 in their last five matches, while HB Køge averaged 0.8 goals scored and 0.8 conceded before halftime, indicating a home advantage in the first half. The hosts led at the break in 40% of those fixtures (2 of 5), compared to the visitors’ 20% (1 of 5); additionally, Fredericia’s matches average 2.6 first-half goals versus 1.6 in HB Køge’s matches, so HT more frequently features goals for the home side. After the break HB Køge scores on average 0.6 goals while Fredericia concedes 0.8 in the second half, and HB Køge have won 40% of their last five games compared to Fredericia’s 20%, suggesting the visitors are stronger in the closing stages. These figures point to a scenario where Fredericia leads at the break but HB Køge has the potential for a turnaround after halftime. Therefore, the most likely and strongest signal is HT/FT = 1/2 (probability 24%), combining the 40% rate of home leads at the break with 40% overall wins for the visitors.