Fredericia vs Silkeborg: match statistics

Silkeborg is the favorite based on form: in the last 5 matches they have 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 loss (average 2.0 points per match), while Fredericia have not won any of their last 5 fixtures (0 wins, 3 draws, 2 losses, average 0.6 points per match). The visitors also show markedly better chance conversion — a 14% conversion rate away versus 8% for the home side, and Fredericia have 40% of home games without scoring compared to 27% for Silkeborg on the road. Defensively both teams are prone to conceding: Fredericia concede on average 2.13 goals at home (average xG against 1.90), Silkeborg 2.47 goals away (average xG against 2.02), however in the last 5 matches the visitors have conceded 9 goals (1.8 per match) versus 11 conceded by the hosts (2.2 per match). Fredericia create slightly more quality chances at home (average xG 1.47 and 13.07 shots) than Silkeborg do away (xG 1.21 and 10.53 shots), but lower conversion and a higher share of scoreless games limit their realistic prospects. Considering Silkeborg’s better form and efficiency and the tendency for high-scoring games between these sides (average 3.2 goals in Fredericia’s matches and 3.93 in Silkeborg’s away games), I estimate the probabilities as: away win 55%, draw 25%, home win 20%.

I project BTTS - Yes at 68% probability because Silkeborg has a season BTTS rate of 67% versus Fredericia’s 44%, and both teams recorded BTTS in 60% of their last 5 matches. The league average BTTS is 59% and clean sheets are rare: Fredericia kept a clean sheet in 13% of matches, Silkeborg only 7%, which raises the likelihood of goals from both sides. Fredericia posts xG 1.46 and averages 1.13 goals per match, while Silkeborg concedes 2.47 goals per match on average (xG against 2.02), meaning Fredericia creates chances against a vulnerable opponent. Countering this is the fact Fredericia failed to score in 50% of their season matches, but Silkeborg is more efficient (conversion 14% vs Fredericia 9%) and away fixtures feature 87% of Silkeborg’s matches with over 2.5 goals, which ultimately strengthens the BTTS signal.

The calculated expected goals are 1.74 for Fredericia and 1.46 for Silkeborg, giving a combined xG of 3.20 and suggesting a match around 3 goals. A Poisson model for total xG=3.20 yields probability of Over 1.5 goals at ~83% (at least 2 goals), Over 2.5 at ~62% (at least 3) and Over 3.5 at ~40% (at least 4). Seasonal data confirm a propensity for goals: Fredericia has Over 1.5 in 88% of matches, Silkeborg in 93%, and Silkeborg has Over 2.5 in 87% of fixtures, which further increases the chance of Over 2.5. Both-teams-to-score stats also support goals — Fredericia 44% and Silkeborg 67% on the season, with last 5-match averages of 1.4 and 1.8 goals respectively (combined 3.2). The strongest signal is Over 1.5 due to the high combined probability (~83%) and alignment of xG with seasonal indicators, therefore I recommend a bet on Over at the 1.5 line.

Silkeborg has a clear form advantage: in the last 5 matches they have won 60% of games, whereas Fredericia have won none (60% vs 0%). In the last 5 matches Silkeborg led at the break in 40% of cases, and Fredericia only in 20%, while Fredericia were trailing at the break in 60% of matches (40% vs 20% vs 60%), suggesting the visitors are more often leading after 45 minutes. In second halves Silkeborg average 1.0 goal in the last 5 matches versus 0.6 for Fredericia and have won the second half in 60% of games (1.0 vs 0.6; 60% vs 20%), so the visitors have a greater chance to maintain or achieve a turnaround after the break. Seasonal numbers support the visitors’ effectiveness: Silkeborg score an average 1.47 goals with a 14% conversion rate compared to Fredericia’s 1.13 goals with a 9% conversion rate; despite Fredericia having a higher xG (1.46 vs 1.21), the hosts’ poorer finishing translates into lower chances of a Full-Time victory.