Fredericia vs Vendsyssel: match statistics

Fredericia sit 2nd, while Vendsyssel are 10th, and the hosts have won 3 of their last 5 matches with a 14:4 goal difference. At home, Fredericia average 3 goals per game, have yet to concede and have won 100% of their matches, while creating chances worth an average of 2.72 xG. Away from home, Vendsyssel score an average of 2 goals but concede 2 per match and have kept no clean sheets. The hosts also have a clear advantage in shots on target, averaging 11 per game compared with their opponents’ 3, which should translate into greater control over the number of chances created. The visitors remain a threat offensively, having scored 13 goals in their last five matches; however, their 11 goals conceded during that period further supports the pick for a Fredericia win.

Seasonal data strongly support goals at both ends: Fredericia and Vendsyssel have a BTTS rate of 100%, and neither team has kept a clean sheet yet. Vendsyssel score an average of 2.0 goals per match, while Fredericia concede 2.0, which clearly increases the visitors’ chances of scoring. In their last five matches, the hosts have scored an average of 2.8 goals and created chances worth 2.37 xG, while Vendsyssel have allowed opponents to score 2.2 goals per match over the same period. The risk to BTTS is Fredericia’s improved defensive performance, as they have conceded only 0.8 goals in their last five matches, along with their BTTS rate of 40% during this period. However, the visitors’ attacking potential and Vendsyssel’s weak defence still support the BTTS - Yes scenario. The forecast is also only slightly below the league-average BTTS rate of 67%, as the hosts’ current defensive form limits confidence in the pick.

Fredericia have averaged 2.8 goals across their last five matches, while Vendsyssel have conceded as many as 2.2 goals per game over the same period, strongly supporting the home side’s scoring potential. The visitors have also remained offensively active, averaging 2.6 goals scored in their last five matches, while Fredericia’s season xG against stands at 1.53. Both teams have exceeded the 1.5-goal threshold in 100% of their matches so far, with each side scoring and conceding at least once in every game. Over 2.5 goals has landed in 60% of Fredericia’s matches over the last five rounds and in all of Vendsyssel’s games, although the 3.5 line remains considerably more volatile. The strongest signal is therefore Over 1.5 goals, as the projected total of 3.55 goals provides a substantial margin of safety above this line.

Vendsyssel have strong arguments for a fast start: in their last five matches, they were leading at the break in 60% of games and scored an average of 1.4 goals before half-time, while Fredericia conceded just 0.4 goals during this phase but went into the interval trailing in as many as 40% of matches. The home side, however, have shown better overall form, recording a 60% win rate across their last five outings and averaging 2.8 goals scored compared with just 0.8 conceded. Their reaction after the break is particularly significant: Fredericia score an average of 1.8 goals in the second half, while Vendsyssel have conceded an average of 2.2 goals per match across their last five fixtures. The visitors are effective in attack, scoring an average of 2.6 goals and registering 15 shots per game, so a lead at the break is a realistic outcome, but their weaker defence increases the home side’s chances of completing a turnaround. The most likely scenario therefore appears to be an HT/FT outcome in which Vendsyssel lead at half-time and Fredericia win at full-time: X/2.