Fredrikstad vs HamKam: match statistics

I back an away win (2): HamKam are clearly in better form over the last five matches, scoring 9 goals and averaging 2.0 points per game, while Fredrikstad have only 4 goals and an average of 0.2 points per game (0 wins, 1 draw, 4 losses). On the season, Fredrikstad at home score 1.67 goals and concede 1.33 per game, have xG for 1.53 and xG against 1.69 and generate 14.33 shots (4.33 on target) with a conversion rate of 12%, indicating good chance creation. HamKam away show lower offensive output (avg. 7.5 shots and 2 on target, xG for 0.89, 1.0 goals per game), but have been more clinical recently (9 goals in 5 matches); their main weakness is defence — 2.5 conceded away and 6 goals conceded in the last five. Practically, Fredrikstad can create more opportunities (xG 1.53 vs 0.89 and 14.33 vs 7.5 shots), but their dramatic form (10 goals conceded in the last 5 and 0.2 average points) reduces their chance to capitalize on that advantage. Considering HamKam’s superior efficiency and points return in the last five (avg. 2.0 points and 9 goals) and Fredrikstad’s recent defensive frailties, I assign 50% chance to an away win, 30% to a home win and 20% to a draw.

Statistical analysis favors the Both Teams To Score (BTTS) scenario: HamKam has a seasonal BTTS rate of 100% and 0% clean sheets, while Fredrikstad has a seasonal BTTS of 60% and 80% in the last 5 matches. Fredrikstad averages 2.0 goals scored per match (xG 1.34) and concedes 1.4 goals (xG against 1.66), whereas HamKam scores 1.0 goal (xG 0.89) and concedes 2.5 goals per match (xG against 1.58); the xG against values of 1.66 and 1.58 indicate both teams are vulnerable to conceding. In the last 5 matches Fredrikstad scored 4 and conceded 10 (0.8 scored and 2.0 conceded on average), and HamKam scored 9 and conceded 6 (1.8 scored and 1.2 conceded), further supporting the Goal/Goal scenario. Additionally, Fredrikstad averages 4.4 shots on target and 11.4 shots per match with an 18% conversion rate, while HamKam has 2.0 shots on target and a 13% conversion — this gives the visitors an offensive edge, but HamKam’s lack of clean sheets (0%) and seasonal BTTS 100% argue for BTTS - Yes. Considering these figures, I assess the probability at 80% for Yes and 20% for No.

The xG-and-opponent-defense model produces expected goals of 1.46 for Fredrikstad and 1.28 for HamKam, total 2.74. Seasonally Fredrikstad have 80% of home matches over 1.5 goals, and HamKam 100%; the league averages 2.78 goals per game, which further increases the likelihood of over 1.5. Offensively the hosts score 2.0 goals at home on average with 11.4 shots and 4.4 on target (conversion 18%), the visitors have 1.0 goal with 7.5 shots and 2.0 on target (conversion 13%), supporting goals from both sides. With a combined xG of 2.74 and seasonal shares of matches above 2.5 goals (Fredrikstad 80%, HamKam 50%), over 2.5 holds a moderate edge (I estimate ~68%), while the chance of over 3.5 goals is substantially lower (~30%). The strongest signal is over 1.5 (80%/100% seasonally, expected 2.74 goals and a high percentage of both-teams-to-score matches: 60% for hosts and 100% for guests), therefore I recommend backing over 1.5.

Fredrikstad shows strong first-half dominance: they led at the break in 60% of matches (3 times) and average 1.0 goals by half-time while conceding 0.6, which suggests a high likelihood of being in front after 45 minutes. Over the full match the hosts win 80% of games and score an average of 2.0 goals per match, while HamKam concedes an average of 2.5 goals (2.0 vs 2.5), further supporting a final victory for the hosts. Fredrikstad also has a quality advantage: xG 1.34 versus the visitors' 0.89, 4.4 shots on target versus 2.0 and conversion 18% vs 13%, indicating better attacking efficiency from the hosts. The visitors have improved form in their last 5 matches (60% wins in the last 5), but have no wins away this season (0% away wins), so their chances of a turnaround are limited. Therefore the most likely scenario is Fredrikstad leading at half-time and winning the match (1/1) with an assigned probability of 50%, while alternatives are 1/X 8%, X/1 14% and 2/1 16%.