Fredrikstad vs Viking: match statistics

Viking is the favourite: they sit 3rd in the table versus Fredrikstad’s 8th, and in the last 5 matches they have 4 wins and 1 loss scoring 14 goals; Fredrikstad in that period have 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 losses with 9 goals. The visitors create more chances — averaging 18 shots and xG 1.94 per away match versus 15.5 shots and xG 1.71 for the hosts — and they have higher possession 55% vs 43%, indicating greater control of the game. Fredrikstad compensate with efficiency: a conversion rate of 13% and on average 2.0 goals per home match versus 6% and 1.0 goal per match for Viking away, so the hosts can be dangerous with fewer opportunities. Defensively recent trends favour Viking — Fredrikstad conceded 9 goals in the last 5 matches, Viking only 5; additionally the visitors have 50% clean sheets away versus 0% for the hosts. Summing higher xG, a better run of form and on average 2.4 points per match in the last 5 fixtures versus 1.4 for Fredrikstad, I predict a Viking win.

Statistics strongly support BTTS - Yes: Fredrikstad has 80% of matches with both teams scoring in the last 5 games, and Viking 60%, giving a simple 70% form average over the last five rounds. On the season Fredrikstad records 67% BTTS and 100% of matches over 2.5 goals, while Viking has 50% BTTS and so far scored 14 and conceded 5, and Fredrikstad scored 7 and conceded 10. xG shows Fredrikstad averages xG 1.79 and concedes xG 1.15, whereas Viking has xG 1.94 with xG against 1.36, indicating both teams create and allow scoring chances. In the last 5 matches Fredrikstad scores 1.8 and concedes 1.8 on average, and Viking scores 2.8 and concedes 1.0, which further suggests the home side regularly concedes despite the visitors' strong attack. Considering 80% vs 60% in the last 5, 67% vs 50% on the season, xG around 1.8–1.9 and Fredrikstad’s 100% of matches over 2.5, I recommend BTTS (both teams to score) with an estimated probability of about 70%.

Both teams generate high xG: Fredrikstad has xG 1.79 and Viking 1.94, totaling 3.73 expected goals. Opponents’ defensive xG is 1.15 (against Fredrikstad) and 1.36 (against Viking), so neither side holds a clear defensive edge, which favors a goal-scoring match. In the last 5 matches Fredrikstad averaged 1.8 goals and Viking 2.8 (combined 4.6), and the percentage of matches over 2.5 in those 5 rounds is 60% vs 80%, further supporting the Over 2.5 scenario. Fredrikstad shows high finishing efficiency (26% with 15.33 shots and 7.33 on target), while Viking registers 6% with 18 shots, so the home side is more effective at converting similar xG into goals. A model based on total xG (3.73) estimates Over 1.5 ~89%, Over 2.5 ~72% and Over 3.5 ~51%, therefore I recommend backing Over at the 2.5 line as the strongest signal.

I rate 1/1 (Fredrikstad leading at Half-Time and winning Full-Time) as the strongest scenario because the home side led at the break in 3 of 3 matches (100%) and have 10 first-half goals. Fredrikstad average 2.67 goals by Half-Time and concede only 0.67, while scoring 4.0 goals per game this season versus Viking’s 1.0, which correlates with their 100% win rate. Viking generate higher xG (1.94 vs 1.79) and more shots per game (18.0 vs 15.33), but they have poor conversion (6% versus Fredrikstad’s 26%) and fewer shots on target (5.0 vs 7.33), making it harder for them to overturn a lead. Additionally, the hosts have collected 9 points by Half-Time (an average of 3.0 points per match) and a season BTTS rate of 67% compared to Viking’s 50%, suggesting Fredrikstad typically takes the lead first and then maintains the result. Therefore I assign 60% to 1/1, 15% to 1/X as a realistic alternative, and the remaining scenarios split into 25% as less likely.