Germany - BundesligaData current as of 12 September 2026

Freiburg vs Hamburger SV: match statistics

Freiburg crest
Freiburg
2 : 1half-time 0:0
Hamburger SV crest
Hamburger SV
165%(1.79)
X22%(3.45)
213%(4.50)
BTTSOver/UnderHT/FT
Pick: 1Won
Pick score:Pick score — the strength of the NoFluffPicks model signal for this pick.57.75
Value:Value — how much the bookmaker price is above our estimated probability. Positive value is favourable long term.16.35%

Freiburg displays significantly better home form with 43% wins and only 14% losses at home, while Hamburger SV has not won a single away match this season (0% Win%). The hosts score an average of 2 goals per home match with an xG of 1.63, confirming their efficiency, whereas the visitors average a mere 0.43 goals away with an xG of 1.3. Freiburg's home goal difference stands at +5, while HSV suffers from a disastrous -13 record in away fixtures. Additionally, Hamburger SV failed to score in 57% of their away matches, which, combined with the hosts' solid defense (1.29 conceded on average), gives Freiburg a clear advantage. The recent form of both teams (Freiburg: wlwdw vs HSV: wdwld) and the hosts' dominance in possession (56% vs 47%) further support the forecast for a Freiburg victory.

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Freiburg vs Hamburger SV: form, goals and key statistics

Key match information

Freiburg played Hamburger SV in Bundesliga (Germany). The match was played on 10 January 2026. Final score: 2:1.

Current form

Freiburg: 2-1-2, 1.40 points/match. Hamburger SV: 2-1-2, 1.40 points/match.

Goal statistics

Freiburg scores 1.67 and concedes 1.73 goals per match. Hamburger SV scores 1.07 and concedes 1.67. League average: 3.18 goals.

BTTS / Over / Under

BTTS: Freiburg 67%, Hamburger SV 53%. Over 2.5: Freiburg 67%, Hamburger SV 53%. League level: BTTS 55%, Over 2.5 61%.

xG, shots and style

Freiburg has higher xG: 1.45 vs 1.40. Freiburg: 13.1 shots per match, Hamburger SV: 13.0.

Match halves

Freiburg: half-time lead 27%, second-half goals 1.00. Hamburger SV: half-time lead 20%, second-half goals 0.73.

Goals by minute

Freiburg: 76-90+ (7 goals). Hamburger SV: 61-75 (4 goals). This is historical distribution, not a predicted goal minute.

League context

Bundesliga: 3.18 goals per match, BTTS 55%, Over 2.5 61%.

Head-to-head

No aligned head-to-head sample is available in the database.

Archived pre-match analysis

This analysis was prepared before kick-off. The conclusions use only information available before the match and do not include the final result or post-match statistics.

General match analysis

Freiburg displays significantly better home form with 43% wins and only 14% losses at home, while Hamburger SV has not won a single away match this season (0% Win%). The hosts score an average of 2 goals per home match with an xG of 1.63, confirming their efficiency, whereas the visitors average a mere 0.43 goals away with an xG of 1.3. Freiburg's home goal difference stands at +5, while HSV suffers from a disastrous -13 record in away fixtures. Additionally, Hamburger SV failed to score in 57% of their away matches, which, combined with the hosts' solid defense (1.29 conceded on average), gives Freiburg a clear advantage. The recent form of both teams (Freiburg: wlwdw vs HSV: wdwld) and the hosts' dominance in possession (56% vs 47%) further support the forecast for a Freiburg victory.

View the statistical overview

Half-by-half

0 : 0
1st half
2 : 1
2nd half

Match statistics

60Possession (%)40
FreiburgHamburger SV
20Shots10
FreiburgHamburger SV
7Shots on target5
FreiburgHamburger SV
2.04xG1.19
FreiburgHamburger SV
0Corners3
FreiburgHamburger SV
40Dangerous attacks28
FreiburgHamburger SV
13Fouls11
FreiburgHamburger SV
3Cards5
FreiburgHamburger SV

Pre-match profile— what do the season numbers say?

This is a team profile based on season data and form. Match-flow statistics are shown only after the fixture is played.

1.33Points per matchPPG - points per game.1.07
FreiburgHamburger SV
1.67Goals scored / match1.07
FreiburgHamburger SV
1.73Goals conceded / match1.67
FreiburgHamburger SV
1.45xG forxG - expected goals, the quality of scoring chances.1.4
FreiburgHamburger SV
51%Average possession47%
FreiburgHamburger SV
4.2Shots on target / match4.6
FreiburgHamburger SV
27%Clean sheetsClean sheet - a match with no goal conceded.20%
FreiburgHamburger SV
67%Both teams scoredBTTS - percentage of matches where both teams scored.53%
FreiburgHamburger SV

Team stats— who is more efficient?

Attack and defence comparison for both teams in the current season.

13.07Shots per match13
FreiburgHamburger SV
4.2Shots on target4.6
FreiburgHamburger SV
12.8%Shot conversion8.2%
FreiburgHamburger SV
51%Possession47%
FreiburgHamburger SV
1.45xG for1.4
FreiburgHamburger SV
1.32xG against1.6
FreiburgHamburger SV

Shooting quality

Freiburg: BalancedHamburger SV: Balanced
FreiburgHamburger SV
Accuracy (shots on target)32%35%
Chance quality (xG per shot)0.110.11
Finishing (goals per shot on target)0.400.23

xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.

* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.

Team form— who is in better shape?

Last five matches and season record, overall and split by home and away matches.

Freiburg
LWLDW
Season result split
33% W33% D33% L
Season (W-D-L)
5-5-5
1.33 pts / match · goal difference -1
Last 5 (W-D-L)
2-1-2
1.40 pts / match
Record at home (W-D-L)
3-3-1
Last 5 at home
2-3-0
DDWWD
Last 5 matches - averages
Goals scored: 2.4Goals conceded: 2.4xG: 1.79Opponent xG: 1.34BTTS: 80%Over 2.5: 80%
Hamburger SV
LWWLD
Season result split
27% W27% D47% L
Season (W-D-L)
4-4-7
1.07 pts / match · goal difference -9
Last 5 (W-D-L)
2-1-2
1.40 pts / match
Record away (W-D-L)
0-2-5
Last 5 away
0-1-4
DLLLL
Last 5 matches - averages
Goals scored: 1.4Goals conceded: 1.8xG: 1.29Opponent xG: 1.37BTTS: 80%Over 2.5: 60%

Goals— how do both teams score and concede?

How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.

Freiburg is 56% better for: goals scored per match.

1.67 goals / match - Freiburg · 1.07 goals / match - Hamburger SV

Freiburg scoring profile: very strong

Freiburg scores in 80% of matches (12 of 15 matches), while Hamburger SV keeps a clean sheet in 20% (3 of 15 matches).

Hamburger SV scoring profile: strong

Hamburger SV scores in 60% of matches (9 of 15 matches), while Freiburg keeps a clean sheet in 27% (4 of 15 matches).

25Goals scored (season)16
FreiburgHamburger SV
26Goals conceded (season)25
FreiburgHamburger SV
3.4Average goals in match2.73
FreiburgHamburger SV
12Goals scored (last 5)7
FreiburgHamburger SV
12Goals conceded (last 5)9
FreiburgHamburger SV
Freiburg
27%
Clean sheetsClean sheet - a match with no goal conceded.4 of 15 matches
20%
No goalFailed to score - a match where the team did not score.3 of 15 matches
Hamburger SV
20%
Clean sheetsClean sheet - a match with no goal conceded.3 of 15 matches
40%
No goalFailed to score - a match where the team did not score.6 of 15 matches

How often they score at least...

80%1 goal60%
FreiburgHamburger SV
47%2 goals27%
FreiburgHamburger SV
27%3 goals13%
FreiburgHamburger SV
13%4 goals7%
FreiburgHamburger SV

How often they concede at least...

73%1 goal80%
FreiburgHamburger SV
47%2 goals40%
FreiburgHamburger SV
27%3 goals20%
FreiburgHamburger SV
13%4 goals20%
FreiburgHamburger SV

* Statistics include both teams' home and away matches in the current season.

Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?

How often both teams' matches have goals on both sides, compared with the league average.

67%
Freiburg - BTTSBTTS - percentage of matches where both teams scored.10 of 15 matches
53%
Hamburger SV - BTTSBTTS - percentage of matches where both teams scored.8 of 15 matches
55%
League average

Goal patterns

27%BTTS at half-time7%
FreiburgHamburger SV
7%BTTS in both halves0%
FreiburgHamburger SV
33%Scored in both halves20%
FreiburgHamburger SV

BTTS and goal count

53%Min. 3 goals and BTTS40%
FreiburgHamburger SV
13%Min. 3 goals without BTTS13%
FreiburgHamburger SV
80%BTTS - last 580%
FreiburgHamburger SV

Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these matches cross the goal lines?

How often matches involving these teams clear goal thresholds, in the full match and in each half.

Full match - team comparison (Over)

87%Min. 1 goal (Over 0.5)Over 0.5 - at least one goal in the match.87%
FreiburgHamburger SV
87%Min. 2 goals (Over 1.5)Over 1.5 - at least two goals in the match.73%
FreiburgHamburger SV
67%Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5)Over 2.5 - at least three goals in the match.53%
FreiburgHamburger SV
47%Min. 4 goals (Over 3.5)Over 3.5 - at least four goals in the match.33%
FreiburgHamburger SV
20%Min. 5 goals (Over 4.5)Over 4.5 - at least five goals in the match.27%
FreiburgHamburger SV

Over / Under - Freiburg

Line 0.5 (min. 1 goal)Over 0.5 - at least one goal in the match.
Over 87%Under 13%
Line 1.5 (min. 2 goals)Over 1.5 - at least two goals in the match.
Over 87%Under 13%
Line 2.5 (min. 3 goals)Over 2.5 - at least three goals in the match.
Over 67%Under 33%
Line 3.5 (min. 4 goals)Over 3.5 - at least four goals in the match.
Over 47%Under 53%
Line 4.5 (min. 5 goals)Over 4.5 - at least five goals in the match.
Over 20%Under 80%

Over / Under - Hamburger SV

Line 0.5 (min. 1 goal)Over 0.5 - at least one goal in the match.
Over 87%Under 13%
Line 1.5 (min. 2 goals)Over 1.5 - at least two goals in the match.
Over 73%Under 27%
Line 2.5 (min. 3 goals)Over 2.5 - at least three goals in the match.
Over 53%Under 47%
Line 3.5 (min. 4 goals)Over 3.5 - at least four goals in the match.
Over 33%Under 67%
Line 4.5 (min. 5 goals)Over 4.5 - at least five goals in the match.
Over 27%Under 73%

1st half

87%Min. 1 goal before half-time73%
FreiburgHamburger SV
40%Min. 2 goals before half-time27%
FreiburgHamburger SV
20%Min. 3 goals before half-time7%
FreiburgHamburger SV

2nd half

80%Min. 1 goal after half-time73%
FreiburgHamburger SV
53%Min. 2 goals after half-time53%
FreiburgHamburger SV
27%Min. 3 goals after half-time20%
FreiburgHamburger SV

Match halves— when do the teams score more often?

How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.

Freiburg is 22% better for: first-half form (half-time points).

1.13 pts / match - Freiburg · 0.93 pts / match - Hamburger SV

Freiburg - half-time state
27% leading33% draw40% trailing
Hamburger SV - half-time state
20% leading33% draw47% trailing

Before half-time (1st half)

1.13Points per match (1st half)0.93
FreiburgHamburger SV
0.67Goals scored (1st half)0.33
FreiburgHamburger SV
0.87Goals conceded (1st half)0.8
FreiburgHamburger SV
1.53Average goals (1st half)1.13
FreiburgHamburger SV
40%Clean sheet before half-time47%
FreiburgHamburger SV
47%No goal before half-time73%
FreiburgHamburger SV

After half-time (2nd half)

1.67Points per match (2nd half)0.93
FreiburgHamburger SV
1Goals scored (2nd half)0.73
FreiburgHamburger SV
0.87Goals conceded (2nd half)0.87
FreiburgHamburger SV
1.87Average goals (2nd half)1.6
FreiburgHamburger SV
60%Clean sheet after half-time33%
FreiburgHamburger SV
40%No goal after half-time47%
FreiburgHamburger SV

Freiburg - second-half results

47% W27% D27% L
17
Half-time points
10
Half-time goals
-3
Goal difference (1st half)
25
Second-half points
+2
Goal difference (2nd half)
1.13
PPG before half-time
Lead holding122%

Leads at half-time in 27% of matches and wins 33%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.

Defence after half-time0.0

Defence stays stable across the full match.

Hamburger SV - second-half results

13% W53% D33% L
14
Half-time points
5
Half-time goals
-7
Goal difference (1st half)
14
Second-half points
-2
Goal difference (2nd half)
0.93
PPG before half-time
Lead holding135%

Leads at half-time in 20% of matches and wins 27%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.

Defence after half-time+0.1

Defence stays stable across the full match.

Freiburg - last 5 matches by half
1st half2nd half
Points per match1.601.80
Goals scored / match1.21.2
Goals conceded / match0.81.6
Average goals in match2.02.8
1 goal100%100%
2 goals60%80%
3 goals20%40%
Clean sheet40%40%
No goal20%40%
Goal difference+2-2
Half-time: 40% leading - 40% draw - 20% trailing
2nd half: 60% won - 0% draw - 40% lost
BTTS at half-time (last 5): 40% - Half-time goals total: 6
Hamburger SV - last 5 matches by half
1st half2nd half
Points per match1.001.00
Goals scored / match0.41.0
Goals conceded / match0.81.0
Average goals in match1.22.0
1 goal80%80%
2 goals40%60%
3 goals0%40%
Clean sheet40%20%
No goal60%40%
Goal difference-20
Half-time: 20% leading - 40% draw - 40% trailing
2nd half: 20% won - 40% draw - 40% lost
BTTS at half-time (last 5): 20% - Half-time goals total: 2

* Colours in tables show event frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate, red is rare. It is frequency, not a team rating.

Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?

Match phases in which both teams most often score and concede.

Freiburg
ScoredConceded
5
2
0-15
2
4
16-30
3
7
31-45
5
7
46-60
3
2
61-75
7
4
76-90

Most dangerous in minutes 76-90 (7 goals). Concedes most in 31-45 (7). Late-goal balance (76-90): +3 - wins late phases.

Hamburger SV
ScoredConceded
2
4
0-15
2
5
16-30
1
3
31-45
3
4
46-60
4
4
61-75
4
5
76-90

Most dangerous in minutes 61-75 (4 goals). Concedes most in 16-30 (5). Late-goal balance (76-90): -1 - late phases are a weakness.

* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.

Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?

A comparison of chance quality, results and trends based on completed matches from the current season.

Match profile

3.07
Estimated goals
attack vs opponent defence
1.7 : 1.4
Estimated goal split
home : away
97%
Pace vs league
100% = league average
60%
Both teams scored (BTTS)
average from both teams' seasons
-100%
Derby effect
H2H goals vs typical matches
48%
BTTS estimate
from both teams' scoring frequency
8%
0:0 risk
about 1 in 13 matches
0-1
Most common goal range
attack vs defence on both sides

Freiburg

Net xG balance
Difference between the quality of chances created and allowed per match.
+0.13
Results compared with xG
Difference between the actual goal balance and the balance suggested by xG.
-0.19
Points compared with goal balance
Comparison between collected points and the points implied by the team's goal balance.
-1.6 pts
Finishing efficiency
Does the team convert chances? Positive means it scores more than the quality of chances suggests.
+0.22
Defensive efficiency
Does the defence or goalkeeper save the team? Positive means it concedes less than the chances allowed suggest.
-0.41
Attack vs league
How much the team scores compared with the league average for this role. 120% means 20% above average.
98%
Defence vs league
How much the team concedes compared with the league average. 80% means 20% fewer goals conceded.
118%
Form trend
Compares points from the last 5 matches with the whole-season average.
+0.07
Stronger second half?
How many more goals the team scores after half-time than before it.
+0.3
Late goals
28% of this team's goals come in minutes 76-90. For comparison, 20% come in the first quarter-hour.
28%

Hamburger SV

Net xG balance
Difference between the quality of chances created and allowed per match.
-0.20
Results compared with xG
Difference between the actual goal balance and the balance suggested by xG.
-0.40
Points compared with goal balance
Comparison between collected points and the points implied by the team's goal balance.
+2.9 pts
Finishing efficiency
Does the team convert chances? Positive means it scores more than the quality of chances suggests.
-0.33
Defensive efficiency
Does the defence or goalkeeper save the team? Positive means it concedes less than the chances allowed suggest.
-0.07
Attack vs league
How much the team scores compared with the league average for this role. 120% means 20% above average.
73%
Defence vs league
How much the team concedes compared with the league average. 80% means 20% fewer goals conceded.
98%
Form trend
Compares points from the last 5 matches with the whole-season average.
+0.33
Stronger second half?
How many more goals the team scores after half-time than before it.
+0.4
Late goals
25% of this team's goals come in minutes 76-90. For comparison, 13% come in the first quarter-hour.
25%

* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range are calculated from public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical match profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed matches from the season.

League context— is this a high-scoring league?

How both teams compare with league-wide averages (Bundesliga).

Teams vs league

FreiburgLigaHamburger SV
Average goals in match▲ 3.403.18▼ 2.73
Both teams scored▲ 67%55%▼ 53%
Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5)▲ 67%61%▼ 53%
Clean sheets▲ 27%25%▼ 20%
Goal before half-time▲ 87%77%▼ 73%
Goal after half-time• 80%81%▼ 73%

^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.

3.18
Average goals per match
55%
Both teams scored
61%
Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5)
25%
Clean sheets
1.71
Home goals / match
1.46
Away goals / match
+17%
Home attack advantage
+15%
Home defence advantage
+11%
Total home advantage
Goals in 1st half (whole league)
77%
1 goal
44%
2 goals
15%
3 goals
7%
4 goals
Goals in 2nd half (whole league)
81%
1 goal
52%
2 goals
24%
3 goals
13%
4 goals

Lineups and player events

Verified starters, substitutes and recorded player events for this match.

Home team

Away team

Match timeline

Goals, cards and substitutions arranged in chronological order.

  1. Hamburger SVYellow cardDaniel Elfadli
  2. FreiburgYellow cardPhilipp Treu
  3. FreiburgYellow cardPhilipp Lienhart
  4. FreiburgSubstitutionOn: Anthony JungOff: Philipp Lienhart
  5. Hamburger SVGoalLuka VuškovićAssist: Miro Muheim
  6. Hamburger SVYellow cardDaniel Elfadli
  7. FreiburgGoalVincenzo Grifo
  8. Hamburger SVSubstitutionOn: Jordan TorunarighaOff: Mamadou Jean-Luc Diarra Dompé
  9. Hamburger SVYellow cardLuka Vušković
  10. Hamburger SVYellow cardDaniel Heuer Fernandes
  11. Hamburger SVSubstitutionOn: Alexander Røssing-LelesiitOff: Damion Downs
  12. FreiburgSubstitutionOn: Jan-Niklas BesteOff: Philipp Treu
  13. FreiburgGoalIgor MatanovicAssist: Jan-Niklas Beste
  14. Hamburger SVSubstitutionOn: Ransford KönigsdörfferOff: Albert-Mboyo Sambi Lokonga
  15. FreiburgSubstitutionOn: Nicolas HöflerOff: Johan Manzambi
  16. FreiburgYellow cardPatrick Osterhage
  17. Hamburger SVYellow cardAlexander Røssing-Lelesiit

Referee and managers

Open their season profiles to compare match records, goals and disciplinary trends.

RefereeTimo Gerach

Referee context

See how often this referee shows cards, awards penalties and how their matches tend to finish.

Timo GerachMatches officiated: 8
4.38Cards per match
0Penalties per match
1 / X / 213%Home wins25%Draws63%Away wins

FAQ

What was the result of Freiburg vs Hamburger SV?

The Bundesliga match finished Freiburg 2:1 Hamburger SV. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.

What do the goal statistics show before Freiburg vs Hamburger SV?

Freiburg score 1.67 goals per game on average and Hamburger SV 1.07. The Bundesliga average is 3.18 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 61% of games. Both teams score in 67% of Freiburg's matches and 53% of Hamburger SV's.

What form are Freiburg and Hamburger SV in?

Over the last 5 games Freiburg have a 2-1-2 record (1.40 points per game) and Hamburger SV 2-1-2 (1.40 points per game).

Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for Freiburg vs Hamburger SV?

The statistical background for Freiburg vs Hamburger SV — form, head-to-head, goals, BTTS and Over/Under — is on this page. The tip with full reasoning and a value assessment is in the NoFluffPicks app.