Frosinone vs Carrarese: match statistics

Frosinone (2nd in the table) is the clear favorite: at home they score on average 2.00 goals per match and 67 goals this season, and their home xG is 2.04 versus Carrarese’s 1.33 xG (9th), indicating higher quality of created chances. The hosts average 19.12 shots and 6.65 on target at home, while Carrarese away average 12.06 shots and 3.59 on target, with a similar conversion rate of 10%, so Frosinone generates substantially more real opportunities. Defensively the hosts concede only 0.88 goals per home match and have 41% clean sheets, whereas the visitors concede 1.76 goals away and have just 12% clean sheets, putting them under greater pressure. In the last 5 matches Frosinone have 4 wins and 1 draw (10 scored, 4 conceded) averaging 2.6 points per game, while Carrarese have 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 loss (10 scored, 5 conceded) averaging 2.0 points per game. The hosts fail to score in only 6% of their home games, while the visitors fail to score in 24% of away matches, therefore I expect a Frosinone win.

xG and average goals analysis indicates both teams have scoring potential: Frosinone has offensive xG 1.53, Carrarese 1.33, with opponents' xG 1.28 (Frosinone) and 1.48 (Carrarese), yielding expected goals of approximately 1.51 for Frosinone and 1.31 for Carrarese. At these values the probability that Frosinone scores at least one goal is about 77.9%, and Carrarese about 73.1%, so the combined probability for BTTS (Both Teams To Score) is roughly 57%. Seasonal signals are mixed: Frosinone had only 33% home matches with BTTS and kept a clean sheet in 50% of home games, while Carrarese has a seasonal BTTS rate of 65% and only 12% away clean sheets. In the last 5 matches Frosinone recorded BTTS in 80% of games, Carrarese in 40%, and the league average BTTS is 55%, which together slightly shifts the balance toward the Goal/Goal scenario. Based on this I assign BTTS 57% for Yes and 43% for No and recommend the pick: yes.

Average xG indicate roughly 2.81 total goals: Frosinone has xG_for 1.53 and Carrarese’s xG_against is 1.48, yielding ~1.50 xG for the home side; Carrarese has xG_for 1.33 and Frosinone’s xG_against 1.28, giving ~1.31 for the visitors. Frosinone averages 14.06 shots (4.44 on target) and scores 1.44 goals per match, Carrarese 12.06 shots (3.59 on target) and 1.18 goals; at a 10% conversion these figures support a result of over 1–2 goals per game. Season over-rates show Carrarese with 94% of matches over 1.5 goals and Frosinone 56%; additionally in the last 5 matches both teams have 60% of games over 2.5 goals, which increases the probability of an over. Defensively Carrarese concedes 1.76 goals on average and keeps only 12% clean sheets, while Frosinone has 50% clean sheets — this suggests the away side will both score and be vulnerable to conceding. As a result the strongest signal is Over 1.5 (I assess 85% chance), Over 2.5 is moderately likely (58%), and Over 3.5 is less realistic (30%); expected goals: home 1.50, away 1.31, total 2.81.

Frosinone holds a clear advantage: seasonal points per game 1.56 versus Carrarese’s 0.88 and xG 1.53 versus 1.33, indicating more high-quality scoring opportunities for the hosts. At half-time both teams score infrequently — Frosinone averages 0.50 goals vs Carrarese 0.35 — and the hosts are level at the break in 67% of matches, so a draw at half-time is common. In second halves Frosinone takes the initiative: they average 1.61 points in second halves, have a +8 goal differential in second halves, and in 67% of second halves at least one goal is scored, which increases the likelihood of a decisive result after the break. Carrarese concedes on average 1.76 goals per match versus 0.94 for Frosinone and are behind at half-time in 53% of games, therefore the most consistent scenario is a draw at half-time and a home victory after 90 minutes (X/1).