Fulham vs Crystal Palace: match statistics

Fulham have a clear attacking edge at home, averaging 14 shots, 6 of them on target, with an xG of 1.76. Crystal Palace have yet to score away from home and have failed to find the net in 100% of such matches, despite averaging 1.33 xG. The hosts also began the season with two defeats, but have scored 8 goals and collected 7 points in their last five matches, while Palace have conceded as many as 11 goals over the same period. Fulham’s defence is far from reliable, conceding an average of 3 goals at home despite opponents posting an xG of 1.85, so the visitors should be able to create chances of their own. Nevertheless, Fulham’s advantage in chance creation and finishing, combined with Palace having lost all of their away matches so far, points to a home win.

The BTTS - Yes pick is primarily supported by the teams’ current attacking form: Fulham have averaged 1.6 goals in their last 5 matches, while Crystal Palace have averaged 1.2. The hosts have recorded a strong xG of 1.79 during this period, while Palace have created chances worth 1.31 xG, giving both sides a solid basis for scoring. The visitors’ defence looks particularly vulnerable, conceding an average of 2.2 goals per match across their last five appearances, while Fulham have scored 8 goals in total during that span. Palace have not kept a clean sheet this season, and neither have Fulham, although a warning sign is the visitors’ seasonal failure to score in their away matches. Despite this discrepancy, the latest BTTS figures—40% for Fulham and 60% for Palace—combined with both teams’ defensive weaknesses give a slight edge to the scenario in which both teams score.

The latest form of both teams points to a goal-filled match: Fulham have averaged 1.6 goals scored in their last 5 matches, while Crystal Palace have conceded as many as 2.2. The hosts generated 1.79 xG per match over this period, whereas the visitors allowed their opponents 1.50 xG, supporting a projection of approximately 1.58 Fulham goals. Crystal Palace averaged 1.31 xG, while Fulham allowed 1.23 xG, making a goal for the visitors a realistic scenario as well. At least 3 goals were scored in 60% of Fulham’s last 5 matches and in 80% of Palace’s games, although the 2.5 line remains more evenly balanced. The strongest signal is for Over 1.5, as the projected total of 2.88 goals is clearly above this threshold.

The strongest scenario is a draw at half-time followed by a Fulham victory at full-time, as the hosts were level at the break in 3 of their last 5 matches, while Crystal Palace were trailing at that stage in 3 of 5. During this period, Fulham averaged 0.8 goals scored and 0.6 conceded before the break, whereas Palace scored 0.6 but allowed their opponents 1.4 goals. After half-time, the hosts have posted a positive balance across their last five matches, averaging 0.8 goals scored against 0.6 conceded, while the visitors have conceded an average of 0.8 goals in this period. Fulham’s advantage is also supported by their current full-match scoring efficiency: the team has averaged 1.6 goals in its last five appearances, while Palace has conceded 2.2, although the visitors’ higher xG of 1.33 compared with 0.82 means a significant chance of them scoring or securing a draw should still be allowed for.