Fylde vs Carlisle United: match statistics

Fylde sit 4th, while Carlisle United are only 16th, and the hosts have collected 3 wins and 10 points from their last five matches, compared with one win and 5 points for the visitors. At home, Fylde average 1.75 goals per match, with 5 shots on target and an 18% conversion rate, whereas Carlisle score just 0.75 goals away from home, averaging 3 shots on target with an 8% conversion rate. The hosts have failed to score in none of their home matches, while the visitors have failed to find the net in 25% of their away games and have kept a clean sheet in none of them. Carlisle do, however, have a 50% draw rate both away from home and in their last five away matches, while Fylde have drawn half of their home games, significantly increasing the likelihood of a share of the points. Fylde’s advantage in chance creation at home is small but meaningful: their average xG is 1.51 compared with Carlisle’s 1.41 away from home, which is why a home win remains the most likely outcome.

The signal for BTTS - Yes is very strong: Fylde have seen both teams score in 100% of their matches this season, compared with 75% for Carlisle United and a league average of 66%. Neither team has kept a clean sheet yet, with Fylde conceding an average of 1.8 goals and Carlisle 1.25 per match. In their last five games, the hosts have scored 2.4 goals and conceded 1.4 on average, while the visitors have scored 1.6 and allowed 1.6 goals. Carlisle strengthen the attacking case with an average xG of 1.93 across their last five matches, while Fylde record as many as 20.8 shots and 9.2 shots on target per home game. The main risk to the pick is Carlisle’s season average of 0.75 goals scored away from home; however, the hosts’ defensive struggles and the visitors’ current form provide stronger support for a Goal/Goal scenario.

Fylde score an average of 2.6 goals at home, while Carlisle concede 1.25 away from home, with the hosts creating as much as 2.45 xG per match. However, Fylde’s defence does not provide much security, as they allow an average of 1.27 xG and 1.8 goals, while Carlisle have scored 1.6 goals per game across their last 5 matches. Fylde’s last five games produced an average of 3.8 goals, whereas Carlisle’s matches averaged 3.2 goals; both teams recorded Over 2.5 goals in more than 60% of those fixtures. Additionally, neither side kept a clean sheet in the analysed seasonal split, while the hosts average 20.8 shots and 9.2 shots on target. The strongest signal is Over 1.5 goals, as the combination of Fylde’s attacking strength and both teams’ defensive vulnerability clearly points towards at least two goals.

Fylde have a clear first-half advantage: they have led at the break in 80% of their matches, averaging 1.4 goals scored and just 0.4 conceded before half-time, while Carlisle have scored only 0.25 goals during this period. The visitors have been behind at half-time in 50% of their matches, have not won a single game this season, and average just 0.75 goals per match overall. The hosts’ attacking potential is further supported by an xG of 2.45 compared with their opponents’ 1.41, as well as an average of 9.2 shots on target per game against Carlisle’s 3.0. After the break, Fylde continue to average 1.2 goals, while Carlisle lose the second half in 50% of cases. Therefore, the most likely scenario is for the hosts to lead at half-time and secure a full-time victory: 1/1.