Fylde vs Scunthorpe United: match statistics

Fylde are 7th and Scunthorpe United 21st, but the hosts’ advantage is not as clear-cut as the table suggests. Both teams have won 2 of their last 5 matches and lost 3, while Fylde have won just 20% of their home games, with 40% ending in draws. The hosts’ home scoring record works in their favour: they average 1.4 goals from a 15% shot-conversion rate, while the visitors score 1 goal per away match at a 10% conversion rate and fail to score in half of their games. Scunthorpe lose 83% of their away matches and concede an average of 2 goals in them, allowing opponents to create chances worth 1.72 xG, compared with the 1.51 xG Fylde concede at home. The hosts also concede an average of 1.6 goals on their own ground, so a home win is the most likely outcome, although a draw or an away win remain realistic possibilities.

Fylde have recorded BTTS in 80% of their matches and have yet to keep a clean sheet, which points to a Scunthorpe goal. The hosts score an average of 1.8 goals, while the visitors concede 2.0; their xG figures are 1.59 for Fylde’s attack and 1.72 for the chances Scunthorpe allow. The strongest argument against BTTS - Yes is that Scunthorpe have failed to score in 50% of their matches, with both teams scoring in only 33% of their games. Nevertheless, the visitors average 1.41 xG, while Fylde concede 1.4 goals per match, making BTTS - Yes slightly more likely.

Fylde average 1.8 goals at home, while Scunthorpe concede 2.0 away, giving the hosts a clear chance to score. The visitors average 1.0 goal away from home, but Fylde concede 1.4 at home and have yet to keep a clean sheet. At least two goals have been scored in 100% of Fylde’s home matches, compared with 67% of Scunthorpe’s away games. The last five matches for both teams saw Over 2.5 goals land in 60% of cases, though the visitors’ weaker attacking output—they have failed to score in 50% of away matches—limits confidence in higher goal lines. Therefore, with a forecast of 2.95 goals, Over 1.5 goals is the strongest pick.

A draw at half-time is the most likely outcome: Fylde were level at the break in 60% of their home matches, while Scunthorpe were level at half-time in 60% of their last five games. The visitors kept a clean sheet in the first half in four of those five matches, reducing the likelihood of the hosts taking an early lead. After the break, the advantage should shift to Fylde, who average 1.2 goals in second halves at home, while Scunthorpe concede an average of 1.17 away from home in that period. The case for a home win is also supported by Fylde’s average of 1.8 goals scored at home, compared with Scunthorpe’s 2.0 goals conceded away, as well as Fylde’s 40% home win rate and Scunthorpe’s 83% away loss rate. However, both teams have averaged exactly 1.2 points per game across their last five matches, making X/1 the strongest single HT/FT scenario, though not a clear favourite.