Fylde vs Worthing: match statistics

Fylde sit 5th, while Worthing are 14th, with the hosts collecting 10 points from five matches through 3 wins and 1 draw, compared with the visitors’ 6 points. At home, Fylde average 2.0 goals with an xG of 1.70 and register 6.5 shots on target per match, clearly outperforming Worthing’s away xG of 1.00 and 3.5 shots on target. The visitors’ defensive record could be decisive: away from home, they concede an average of 2.5 goals, allow opponents an xG of 2.77 and have kept no clean sheets. Worthing can be effective on the road, averaging 2.5 goals, but their 33% shot-conversion rate looks difficult to sustain with only 7.5 attempts. Fylde are unbeaten at home, average 60% possession and concede just 1.0 goal per match there, so the hosts should capitalise on their advantage in chance creation and win.

The signal for both teams to score is very strong: BTTS occurred in 67% of Fylde’s matches and in all of Worthing’s games, compared with a league average of 68%. In their last five matches, both teams recorded BTTS in 80% of games, while averaging 2.2 and 1.8 goals respectively. Worthing have kept no clean sheets, conceding an average of 2.5 goals per match, while their average xG against is as high as 2.77, clearly supporting the expectation of a home goal. Fylde are also defensively inconsistent, conceding an average of 1.4 goals across their last five appearances with an xG against of 1.56. The visitors average 2.5 goals per game this season and, despite a lower xG of 1.00, their shot conversion rate stands at 33%. Therefore, the most likely scenario is a goal from both sides — BTTS - Yes / Goal/Goal.

The match profile clearly points towards goals: in their last five matches, Fylde averaged 2.2 goals scored, while Worthing conceded 2.0 goals per game. Both teams recorded Over 2.5 goals in 80% of their last five appearances, and both teams scored and conceded in 80% of those matches. Worthing have not kept a clean sheet this season, conceding an average of 2.5 goals away from home, while Fylde create an average of 1.51 xG at home. The visitors’ average of 2.5 goals scored away from home and 100% of away matches featuring at least 2 goals provide further support. The strongest pick is Over 1.5, as both teams exceeded this line in 67% and 100% of matches respectively, while the projected total of 3.15 goals offers a substantial margin of safety.

The strongest scenario is Fylde leading at the break and holding on to win, as the hosts have won the first half in all three of their matches at home so far, scoring an average of 1.0 goals and conceding none. Away from home, Worthing concede an average of 2.5 goals per match, have kept no clean sheets, and their average xGA is as high as 2.77, compared with 1.51 xG generated by Fylde. The hosts are also in better current form: they have won 60% of their last five matches and scored an average of 2.2 goals, while Worthing have lost 60% of their games and conceded 2.0 goals per match. The risk after the interval remains high, as Worthing score an average of 2.0 goals in the second halves of away matches, but Fylde have the home advantage and average 12.67 shots compared with their opponents' 7.5. The visitors often start matches strongly, leading at half-time in 80% of their last five appearances, which is why HT/FT variants featuring Worthing ahead after the break retain a noticeable, though lower, rating.